1.1. The purpose of this report to inform appropriate assessment

  1. This Report to Inform Appropriate Assessment (RIAA) has been prepared by RPS and NIRAS Group (United Kingdom (UK)) Ltd on behalf of the Ossian Offshore Wind Limited (Ossian OWFL) (hereafter referred to as the ‘Applicant’). The purpose of this RIAA is to support the Habitats Regulations Appraisal (HRA) of the Array in the determination of the implications for European sites. This RIAA builds upon the Array HRA Stage One Likely Significant Effects (LSE2) Screening Report (Part 1. appendix 1A, Ossian OWFL, 2023) and the subsequent joint Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Scoping and LSE2 Screening advice received in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (Marine Directorate – Licensing Operations Team (MD-LOT) (2023)). This RIAA assesses whether the Array could have an adverse effect, either alone, or in-combination with other plans or projects, on the integrity of any European site. This RIAA has been carried out with regards to NatureScot's Guidance Notes 1 to 11 (NatureScot, 2023a-k). This report will provide the Competent Authority with the information required to undertake an HRA Stage Two Appropriate Assessment.
  2. The scope of this RIAA Part Three SPA and Ramsar Site Assessments covers all relevant SPAs and Ramsar Sites and their qualifying interest features where a LSE2 has been identified in the HRA Stage One Screening Report (Part 1, appendix 1A), due to the potential impacts arising from the Array. This includes both ‘offshore’ European sites and features (seaward of Mean High Water Springs (MHWS)) and ‘onshore’ European sites (landward of Mean Low Water Springs (MLWS) where appropriate.

1.2.        Structure of the RIAA

1.2. Structure of the RIAA

  1. As detailed in section 1.5 of Part 1 – Introduction, for clarity and ease of navigation, the RIAA is structured and reported in the below ‘Parts’, as follows:
  • Executive Summary and Conclusion
  • Part 1: Introduction;
  • Part 2: Special Area of Conservation (SAC) Assessments; and
  • Part 3: Special Protection Area (SPA) and Ramsar Site Assessments.

1.3.        Structure of this Document

1.3. Structure of this Document

  1. As stated in paragraph 3, this document constitutes Part 3 of the RIAA, and presents the assessment of the implications of the Array on SPAs and Ramsar sites,
  2. This document is structured as follows:
  • Section 1: Introduction, which details the purpose and structure of the RIAA and this Part 3 document;
  • Section 2: Consultation, which provides a summary of relevant consultation undertaken to date, the responses provided and how these have been addressed within this Part of the RIAA;
  • Section 3: Summary of the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening conclusions for SPAs and Ramsar sites;
  • Section 4: Information to inform the Appropriate Assessment – which includes the Maximum Design Scenario (MDS), information on designed in measures, and an outline of the baseline data on the SPAs and Ramsar sites;
  • Section 5: Assessment of Adverse Effects on Integrity on European sites designated for ornithological features, alone and in-combination with other plans and projects;
  • Section 6: Overall summary of this Part of the RIAA; and
  • Section 7: References.
  1. This Part of the RIAA will also contain the following appendices:
  • Appendix 3A – Offshore Ornithology SPA Apportioning Technical Report; and
  • Appendix 3B – Offshore Ornithology SPA Population Viability Analysis (PVA) Technical Report.

2.             Consultation

2. Consultation

  1. Consultation has been undertaken with statutory stakeholders with regards to the ornithological features of SPAs. A summary of all relevant consultation undertaken to date is presented in Table 2.1   Open ▸ .

 

Table 2.1:
Summary of Key Consultations on Relevant to Part 3 of the RIAA

Table 2.1: Summary of Key Consultations on Relevant to Part 3 of the RIAA


 

3.             Summary of HRA Screening Conclusions

3. Summary of HRA Screening Conclusions

  1. This section summarises all pathways for potential LSE2 on ornithological features identified for SPAs and Ramsar sites (arising alone or in-combination with other plans and projects).

3.1.        Screening Outcomes for the Array Alone

3.1. Screening Outcomes for the Array Alone

  1. A total of 41 SPAs (of which, 16 are also Ramsar sites) designated for ornithological features were identified in the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report (Part 1, appendix 1A; Ossian OWFL, 2023) as having potential LSE2 and therefore requiring assessment. These are as follows:
  • Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA;
  • Calf of Eday SPA;
  • Cameron Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Copinsay SPA;
  • Coquet Island SPA;
  • Din Moss - Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site;
  • East Caithness Cliffs SPA;
  • Fair Isle SPA;
  • Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Farne Islands SPA;
  • Firth of Forth SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA;
  • Forth Islands SPA;
  • Fowlsheugh SPA;
  • Gladhouse Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Greenlaw Moor SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA;
  • Holburn Lake and Moss SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Hoy SPA;
  • Lindisfarne SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Loch Leven SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Loch of Kinnordy SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Marwick Head SPA;
  • Mingulay to Berneray SPA;
  • Montrose Basin SPA and Ramsar site;
  • North Caithness Cliffs SPA;
  • North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA;
  • Northumbria Coast SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Noss SPA;
  • Rathlin Island SPA;
  • Rousay SPA;
  • Slamannan Platea SPA;
  • South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site;
  • St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA;
  • St Kilda SPA;
  • Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA;
  • Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA;
  • West Westray SPA;
  • Westwater SPA and Ramsar site; and
  • Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA/Ythan Estuary and Meikle Loch Ramsar site.
  1. The Ossian Array Scoping Opinion ( Table 2.1   Open ▸ ) identified the following discrepancies with the Array HRA LSE2 Screening Report, which have been amended to provide the final list of SPAs (and Ramsar sites) and relevant ornithological features to be taken forward to the RIAA:
  • NatureScot noted that qualifying features were missing for St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA, North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA, Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA, Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA as well as Firth of Forth SPA. These sites were all revisited and reassessed. However, in all cases no new features with LSE2 were identified, and in the case of Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA and Firth of Forth SPA it was determined that additional qualifying features had been included in the Array HRA Screening Report rather than missing features (refer to paragraph 15 for a list of differences between the LSE2s identified in the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report (Ossian OWFL, 2023) and the LSE2s taken forward in this RIAA);
  • NatureScot noted that the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report states that the mean maximum plus 1 SD foraging ranges from Woodward et al. (2019) were used to calculate connectivity, which is correct for most species however there are exceptions. As highlighted in NatureScot Guidance Note 3 (NatureScot, 2023c), there are exceptions for gannet, guillemot and razorbill;
  • NatureScot and MD-LOT requested that the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA be included due to the potential for disturbance from vessel movements passing through the SPA; and
  • Natural England advised that guillemot from the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA should be screened in for potential impacts during the non-breeding season.
  1. Following this advice, Rathlin Island SPA and Mingulay to Berneray SPA were removed from the list of LSE2s to take forward to RIAA, as the Array is beyond the recommended foraging range of all features of those sites. The list of qualifying features for each site has been reviewed and updated (see Table 3.1   Open ▸ ).
  2. For this RIAA, connectivity with breeding seabird colonies has been refined using a Geographic Information System (GIS) tool that measures at-sea distances from the geometric centre of the Array to individual breeding colonies (based on colony coordinates provided in Burnell et al., 2023), as required for apportioning following NatureScot (2018). This refinement has led to the following additional sites and species being ruled out for appropriate assessment, due to their at-sea distance being greater than their species- and site-specific foraging range, as recommended in NatureScot (2023d):
  • Guillemot at Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA, Farne Islands SPA, Forth Islands SPA, Fowlsheugh SPA, St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA and Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA;
  • Herring gull at Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA and Fowlsheugh SPA;
  • Kittiwake at Calf of Eday, Hoy SPA, Fair Isle SPA, Marwick Head SPA, Rousay SPA and West Westray SPA; and
  • Razorbill at East Caithness Cliffs SPA, Forth Islands SPA, North Caithness Cliffs SPA, St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA and Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA.
  1. In addition, the full two years of DAS data was reviewed to confirm the screening conclusions drawn in Ossian OWFL (2023). Following this review, it was concluded that the number of both lesser black-backed gull and of great black-backed gull using the Array is negligible. Lesser black-backed gull were recorded in only one out of all 24 DAS, with an estimated abundance of 11 birds in the Array offshore ornithology study area in April 2021. Great black-backed gull were recorded in nine of the 24 DAS, of which only a single record (estimated abundance 11 birds in the Array offshore ornithology study area) occurred during the breeding season (volume 3, appendix 11.1 of the Array EIA Report) therefore, there is no potential LSE2 to:
  • the great black-backed gull feature of the following sites:

-        Calf of Eday SPA;

-        Copinsay SPA; and

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA.

  • the lesser black-backed gull feature of the following sites:

-        Forth Islands SPA.

  1. This has led to a revised list of 35 SPAs (of which 16 are also Ramsar sites) and their relevant ornithological features, which have been assessed in this RIAA, based on the LSE2 findings, stakeholder scoping opinions, and further refinements as described above. A summary of the sites with potential LSE2, all of the qualifying features for each site, and qualifying features with potential LSE2 (and therefore undergoing appropriate assessment) is presented in Table 3.1   Open ▸ .
  2. The bullet points below set out the differences between the LSE2s identified in the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report (Part 1, appendix 1A; Ossian OWFL, 2023) and the LSE2s taken forward in this RIAA:
  • Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA: The Stage One Offshore HRA Screening Report identified guillemot and herring gull as LSE2s, but these were not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Calf of Eday SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake, great black-backed gull and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Copinsay SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified great black-backed gull as an LSE2, but this was not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Coquet Island SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake as an LSE2. However, this is not a qualifying feature of Coquet Island SPA and was not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • East Caithness Cliffs SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified great black-backed gull and razorbill as LSE2s, but these were not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Fair Isle SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake as an LSE2, but this was not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Farne Islands SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified guillemot as an LSE2, but this was not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified razorbill and puffin as an LSE2. However, puffin is not a qualifying feature of Coquet Island SPA and razorbill was not taken forward to the RIAA. The RIAA also includes guillemot;
  • Forth Islands SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified guillemot and razorbill as LSE2s, but these were not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Fowlsheugh SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified guillemot and herring gull as LSE2s, but these were not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Hoy SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Marwick Head SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Mingulay and Berneray SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified razorbill and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA;
  • North Caithness Cliffs SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified razorbill as an LSE2, but this was not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report did not include the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA. This SPA has been included in the RIAA;
  • Rathlin SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified razorbill and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA;
  • Rousay SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA;
  • St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified guillemot, herring gull and razorbill as LSE2s, but these were not taken forward to the RIAA;
  • St Kilda SPA: The RIAA includes Manx shearwater, which was not identified as an LSE2 in the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report;
  • Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified guillemot and razorbill as LSE2s, but these were not taken forward to the RIAA; and
  • West Westray SPA: The Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening Report identified kittiwake and seabird assemblage as LSE2s, but no qualifying features for this SPA were taken forward to the RIAA.

3.1.1.    Breeding Seabird Assemblages and Non-breeding Waterbird Assemblages

3.1.1. Breeding Seabird Assemblages and Non-breeding Waterbird Assemblages

  1. Table 3.1   Open ▸ includes the breeding seabird assemblages and non-breeding waterbird assemblages that form part of the citation for each SPA or Ramsar site. The component species of these assemblages were considered during the HRA screening process as features for that particular site, and the resulting components with a potentially significant impact have been identified (as shown in Table 3.1   Open ▸ ). It follows that all other named components of the assemblage can be considered “screened out” as having no potential for a significant impact. Therefore, when considering these assemblages in this RIAA, the potential for an adverse effect to the assemblage can be inferred from the results obtained for the named components for which an assessment is provided.

 

Table 3.1:
Summary of all SPAs (and Ramsar Sites) for Which the Potential for LSE2 Could not be Discounted, and for Which an Appropriate Assessment is Required

Table 3.1: Summary of all SPAs (and Ramsar Sites) for Which the Potential for LSE2 Could not be Discounted, and for Which an Appropriate Assessment is Required

 

4.             Information to Inform the Appropriate Assessment

4. Information to Inform the Appropriate Assessment

4.1.        Introduction

4.1. Introduction

  1. As described in section 2 of Part 1 of the RIAA, a European site is progressed to the Appropriate Assessment stage (Stage Two of the HRA process) where it is not possible to exclude a LSE2 on one or more of its qualifying interest features in view of the site’s conservation objectives. European sites, features and potential impacts requiring an Appropriate Assessment for the Array are therefore those for which LSE2 could not be ruled out during the Screening exercise and following consultation.
  2. Information to help inform the Appropriate Assessment for SPAs (and Ramsar sites) is provided in sections 4.2 to 4.6. The information provided includes a description of the SPAs (and Ramsar sites) under consideration, their qualifying interest features, and an assessment of the implications of the Array for the site in view of the conservation objectives of each site and considering any adverse effect on site integrity. A cross-referencing approach has been adopted to aide readability and reduce repetition where relevant, but this has been carefully carried out to ensure that all information required for a robust HRA of each site is presented.
  3. In addition, two appendices have been produced to aid with Stage Two of the HRA process, these reports are:
  • Appendix 3A - Offshore Ornithology Apportioning Technical Report.
  • Appendix 3B - Offshore Ornithology PVA Technical Report.

4.2.        Maximum Design Scenarios

4.2. Maximum Design Scenarios

  1. All SPAs (and Ramsar sites) assessment presented in this part of the RIAA have been based on a realistic Maximum Design Scenario (MDS), which was derived from the Project Description (as described in Part 1). The final design will be no greater than the parameters set out in the MDS, and in some instances may be less. An overview of the MDS considered for the assessment of potential impacts on ornithological features is presented per potential impact (see sections 5.4 and 5.5). This MDS is consistent with that used for the ornithology assessment in the Array EIA Report (Ossian OWFL, 2024).

4.3.        Designed in Measures

4.3. Designed in Measures

  1. As part of the project design process, a number of designed in measures have been included in the Array and are committed to be delivered by the Applicant as part of the Array. These designed in measures are integrated into the project description for the Array and are not considered as mitigation measures intended to specifically avoid or reduce effects on European sites.
  2. Measures intended specifically to avoid or reduce effects on European sites were not considered during the Array HRA Stage One LSE2 Screening but are included within the HRA Stage Two Appropriate Assessment for determination of Adverse Effects on Integrity. Where relevant, this Part of the RIAA indicates whether adverse impacts on European sites are likely and if so, whether those effects can be avoided through the introduction of mitigation measures that avoid or reduce the impact. These measures are referred to as secondary mitigation and may be taken from the relevant chapters of the Array EIA Report (Ossian OWFL, 2024) or, where necessary, may have been developed specifically to comply with HRA requirements. Where the latter is the case, this has been made clear throughout.

 

4.4.        Baseline Information

4.4. Baseline Information

  1. Baseline information on the European sites (i.e. SPAs for this Part of the RIAA) identified for further assessment within HRA Stage Two Appropriate Assessment has been collated through site-specific surveys, in addition to a desktop study of existing studies and datasets. Baseline information is presented in detail in volume 2, chapter 11 of the Array EIA Report (Ossian OWFL, 2024) and associated technical reports which are derived from analyses of the baseline survey data. These technical reports include:
  • volume 3, appendix 11.1: Offshore Ornithology Baseline Characterisation Technical Report.
  • volume 3, appendix 11.2: Offshore Ornithology Collision Risk Modelling (CRM) Technical Report.
  • volume 3, appendix 11.2, annex B: Offshore Ornithology Migratory CRM Technical Report.
  • volume 3, appendix 11.3: Offshore Ornithology Displacement Technical Report.
  • volume 3, appendix 11.4: Offshore Ornithology MRSea Technical Report.
  1. Any additional sources of information used in the HRA Stage Two Appropriate Assessment are summarised within the main body of this Part of the RIAA.

4.5.        Conservation Objectives and Conservation Advice

4.5. Conservation Objectives and Conservation Advice

  1. Conservation objectives set the framework for establishing appropriate conservation measures for each feature of a site and provide a framework against which the impacts associated with plans or projects can be assessed. Within this part of the RIAA, the most up-to-date conservation objectives and conservation advice has been referenced. The statutory nature conservation bodies (SNCBs) have produced conservation advice for European sites under their statutory remit. This conservation advice provides supplementary information on sites and features, and although the content provided is similar, the format of the advice provided varies between the different SNCBs.
  2. For European sites under the statutory remit of NatureScot, Conservation and Management Advice documents (CMAs) have been produced for all marine SPAs. These documents contain revised and updated conservation objectives for the features of each site, site-specific clarifications and advice in order for the conservation objectives to be achieved, and advice on management required to achieve the conservation objectives. Each objective includes site-specific supplementary advice.
  3. For European sites under the statutory remit of Natural England, Supplementary Advice to the conservation objectives has been produced for some SPAs, which provide site-specific attributes and targets specific to the features of the site.
  4. Where Ramsar interests coincide with qualifying features within an SPA, the advice for overlapping designations is considered to be sufficient to support the management of the Ramsar interests. Therefore, the conservation objectives are referenced for both designations.
  5. Information on the designated sites mentioned within this RIAA are provided in section 5.3.

4.6.        Approach to the In-Combination Assessment

4.6. Approach to the In-Combination Assessment

  1. The Habitats Regulations require the consideration of the potential effects of a project on European sites both alone and in-combination with other plans or projects.
  2. When undertaking an in-combination assessment projects, plans or activities with which the Array alone may interact to produce an in-combination effect must be identified. These interactions may arise within the construction, operations and maintenance or decommissioning phases. The approach taken for the assessment of in-combination impacts in this Part of the RIAA has been informed by the cumulative effects assessment (CEA) carried out in volume 2, chapter 11 of the Array EIA Report.
  3. The process of identifying those projects, plans or activities for which there is the potential for an interaction to occur is referred to as ‘screening’. A specialised process has been developed to methodically and transparently screen the large number of projects, plans and activities that may be considered cumulatively alongside the Array alone. This involves a staged process that considers the level of detail available for projects, plans and activities, as well as the potential for interactions on a conceptual, physical and temporal basis. Screening for the Array alone is summarised in section 3, with screening for the project in-combination being provided here. For in-combination screening, there is a presumption that where potential for LSE2 has been identified for the Array alone, then potential LSE2 in-combination applies.
  4. For the Array in-combination assessment a tiered approach has been adopted. This approach provides a framework for placing relative weight on the potential for each project/plan to be included in the in-combination assessment to ultimately be realised, based upon the project/plan’s current stage of maturity and certainty in the project’s parameters. The allocation of each project, plan and activity into tiers is not affected by the screening process but is merely a categorisation applied to all projects, plans and activities that have been screened in for assessment.
  5. The tiered approach which has been utilised within the in-combination assessment employs the following tiers:
  • Tier 1 assessment – Array with Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure and all plans/projects which became operational since baseline characterisation, those under construction, and those with consent and submitted but not yet determined;
  • Tier 2 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 1, plus projects with a Scoping Report; and
  • Tier 3 assessment – All plans/projects assessed under Tier 2, which are reasonably foreseeable, plus those projects likely to come forward when an Agreement for Lease (AfL) has been granted.
  1. An overview of the projects or activities considered for each receptor group are tabulated separately in each of the receptor chapters according to the effect-pathway under consideration. A summary of all projects considered are presented in Table 4.1   Open ▸ . Note that due to uncertainty around Tier 3 and a lack of quantitative information regarding most Tier 2 projects, these projects are not considered quantitatively within the in-combination assessment, although they are considered qualitatively. Final compilation of in-combination impacts was carried out in March 2024, and any subsequently published information has not been considered.
  2. Impacts from plans and projects that are not offshore wind farms were initially considered, as detailed in volume 3, appendix 6.4 of the Array EIA Report (Ossian OWFL, 2024). However, no plans or projects other than offshore windfarms have been taken forward for quantitative in-combination assessment.
  3. For tidal farms, the effects of displacement are still relatively unknown (Isaksson et al., 2020) due to the limited number and small spatial footprint of operational devices currently deployed in a few tidal lease sites (Fox et al., 2018). However, as the majority of infrastructure associated with tidal farms is underwater, there is likely to be a negligible impact from disturbance and displacement. Long (2017) stated that some displacement was detected during construction, but that numbers returned to previous levels once the tidal turbines were installed and operational.
  4. Additionally, assessing collision using collision risk models for tidal stream energy developments have limitations (Horne, 2021; Horne et al., 2023). Traditional models, such as the Encounter Rate and Band Models, do not fully account for animals’ ability to change direction, detect and avoid underwater structures, or evade structures at close range (Horne et al., 2023). These models may also struggle to estimate risk for novel device designs. A review by Isaksson et al. (2020) highlighted that while studies investigating the interaction between seabirds and tidal stream environments exist, there is little synthesis of what the results mean for collision risk and displacement due to tidal energy devices. Horne et al. (2023) stated that improved understanding and application of collision risk models are needed to ensure accurate risk evaluations for the sustainable development of the tidal energy industry. Consequently, collision impacts from tidal farms are considered to have significant uncertainty. However, given tidal stream turbine technology is still at an early stage of deployment with only a small number of turbines at a small number of lease sites, it can be concluded the risk of collision from tidal turbines is negligible and makes no material contribution to any in-combination effect.
  5. Regarding impacts from oil and gas activities, aggregate extraction, disposal sites, coastal protection, infrastructure, subsea cables and transmission assets, there will be limited spatial and temporal overlap, and limited overlap in terms of impact pathways. Any impacts which could overlap with impacts from the Array would be negligible. For example, disturbance and displacement related to maintenance of existing subsea cables will be restricted to routine monitoring or damage repair, both of which would be highly spatially and temporally restricted and so have a negligible impact on seabirds. Therefore, all projects within these activity sectors were screened out as having no potential to contribute to an in-combination effect. These details are within volume 3, appendix 6.4 of the Array EIA Report. For other elements of Ossian, including the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure, information is currently limited and therefore could not be included in this assessment. Those other elements will be subject to a separate application in which in-combination assessment of impacts will be carried out.
  6. It should be noted that the Culzean Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Pilot Project, Greater Gabbard, Gunfleet Sands 1 and 2, Inner Dowsing, Lynn, Methil Demo and Scroby Sands are currently operational. However, the operational consents for these projects expires before the Array becomes operational. These projects are therefore discounted from the in-combination assessment as there is no temporal overlap between the operational phases of these projects and the Array.
  7. Table 4.1   Open ▸ sets out the Tier 1 and Tier 2 projects that are included in the in-combination assessment. Data from the recent Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm has been used to provide the most up-to-date mortality figures for a number of the Tier 1 offshore wind farms. These offshore wind farms have been grouped by Berwick Bank and are referred to collectively in this RIAA as “UK North Sea Projects”.

 

Table 4.1:
Summary of Tier 1 and 2 Projects Considered Within the In-Combination Assessment

Table 4.1: Summary of Tier 1 and 2 Projects Considered Within the In-Combination Assessment

 

  1. Potential impacts from the Array alone assessment are taken forward to the in-combination assessment where they have the potential to overlap with the same impact from other plans and projects. Where the impact is associated with a specific project phase of development (e.g. construction, operations and maintenance or decommissioning), phases which do not have the potential for in-combination effects have been omitted from further consideration in the in-combination assessment. Additionally, some of the potential impacts considered within the alone assessment are not considered in the in-combination assessment due to:
  1. Further details on the criteria used to determine which sites and features were taken forward to the in-combination assessment are provided in section 5.5.
  2. In addition, the in-combination projects considered for each relevant SPA was based upon species’ by sea foraging range from the SPAs, where there is the potential for individuals to have connectivity to the Array and the other plans/projects. Foraging ranges presented in volume 3, appendix 11.1 of the Array EIA Report were used (Woodward et al. 2019). Projects considered for each species during each season are presented within the in-combination assessments within section 5.5.

5.             Assessment of Potential Adverse Effects on Integrity

5. Assessment of Potential Adverse Effects on Integrity

5.1.        Introduction

5.1. Introduction

  1. This section provides background information and explanation for the approach taken to assess the potential impacts of the Array on SPAs designated for marine ornithological features, and presents the Stage Two assessments for the site features for which LSE2 was identified (section 3.1). These features and sites are listed in Table 5.1   Open ▸ and shown in Figure 5.1   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.1:
European Sites Designated for Marine Ornithological Features for Which an Appropriate Assessment is Required

Table 5.1: European Sites Designated for Marine Ornithological Features for Which an Appropriate Assessment is Required

Figure 5.1:
Location of European Sites Designated for Marine Ornithological Features for Which an Appropriate Assessment is Required

Figure 5.1: Location of European Sites Designated for Marine Ornithological Features for Which an Appropriate Assessment is Required

  1. LSE2s on the SPAs presented in Table 5.1   Open ▸ were identified for construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Array. The potential impacts are outlined below in Table 5.2   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.2:
Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features of the European Sites Identified for Appropriate Assessment

Table 5.2: Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features of the European Sites Identified for Appropriate Assessment

 

5.2.        Potential Impacts and Method of Assessment

5.2. Potential Impacts and Method of Assessment

5.2.1.    Introduction to the Applicant’s Approach

5.2.1. Introduction to the Applicant’s Approach

  1. As described in sections 1 and 2, the assessments within this RIAA have been carried out with regards to NatureScot’s Guidance Notes (NatureScot, 2023a-k) along with advice received through the consultation process. However, the Habitats Regulations requires HRA to be based on the best available scientific information and, in some instances, the Applicant considers the advice and guidance provided to be overly precautionary based on a review of the available scientific literature. Therefore, for some assessments, this RIAA presents a separate NatureScot Approach and Applicant’s Approach. The NatureScot approach follows NatureScot’s guidance and advice received from NatureScot through the consultation process. The Applicant’s Approach follows the Applicant’s interpretation of the best available scientific information to present an approach that the Applicant feels better reflects the best available evidence, whilst still being sufficiently precautionary to account for the uncertainty in the scientific information available.

5.2.2.    Disturbance and displacement

5.2.2. Disturbance and displacement

  1. This pressure relates to the physical disturbance of birds and the displacement that could occur if birds avoid the area occupied by the Array during operation and/or the vessels and activities involved during construction, operation and maintenance, and/or decommissioning.
  2. It should be noted that for breeding seabirds, it can be difficult to distinguish between displacement and barrier effects for breeding seabirds (JNCC et al., 2022). JNCC et al. (2022) defines barrier effects as “a physical factor that limits the migration, or free movement of individuals or populations, thus requiring them to divert from their intended path in order to reach their original destination”. For any individual seabird, whether the Array creates a displacement effect, a barrier effect, both, or neither would depend on where that individual would have foraged in the absence of the Array, where it chooses to forage instead, and the route it takes to get there.
  3. The current guidance from NatureScot (2023h) therefore recommends treating both displacement and barrier effects together as “distributional responses” and, for breeding seabirds, recommends assessing these distributional responses together. Therefore, for breeding seabirds, the approach to “disturbance and displacement” assessment covers both disturbance and barrier effects, whilst the assessment of “barrier to movement” (see below) only considers the barrier effect to migratory birds.
  4. Disturbance and displacement has been screened in for a number of sites and species, including within the Array during construction and decommissioning, from activities such as vessel movements, seabed preparation and cable laying. Disturbance and displacement has also been screened in for a number of sites and species during operation and maintenance, as a result of a direct response to operational wind turbines, as well as maintenance activities, such as vessel movements.
  5. Disturbance and displacement as a result of vessel movements has also been screened in for a number of qualifying species at Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA, as requested by NatureScot and MD-LOT (refer to Table 2.1   Open ▸ ),
  6. Disturbance and displacement can be temporary and short term (for example relating to construction activities or vessel movements associated with maintenance) or for the duration of the Array (for example the physical presence of the wind turbines).
  7. A distributional response may impact bird populations by affecting site usage which may be for foraging, resting or moulting purposes. As a result of a disturbance and displacement, an individual bird may experience a decrease in fitness, due to the effect of re-locating to alternative foraging grounds and or changes to energy budgets due to the increased energy expenditure when avoiding a wind farm. These impacts, in turn, may have indirect effects on birds in areas that may be some distance from the wind farm, including reduced energy acquisition as a result of increased competition at other foraging sites which can result in further reductions in fitness affecting reproductive success.
  8. Vulnerability to these pressures is species-specific; pressure vulnerability has been determined using the evidence provided in the relevant literature including Wade et al. (2016) and Bradbury et al. (2014).
  9. The assessment has drawn on the conclusions of the relevant Technical Reports in the Array EIA Report, specifically the following:
  • volume 3, appendix 11.1: Offshore Ornithology Baseline Characterisation Technical Report; and
  • volume 3, appendix 11.3: Offshore Ornithology Displacement Technical Report.
  1. The impact of disturbance and displacement has been assessed qualitatively in the construction and decommissioning phases. Construction activity is expected to be intermittent and spatially limited at any given time, and therefore a qualitative assessment is considered to be proportional to the magnitude of the anticipated impacts.
  2. The impact of disturbance and displacement during the operation and maintenance phase has been assessed quantitatively. This quantitative assessment relies on the “matrix approach”, as described in SNCBs (2022) and volume 3, appendix 11.3 of the Array EIA Report. The SeabORD tool (Searle et al., 2018) was not available to use for this project and has not been run, in agreement with NatureScot ( Table 2.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. Note that, as detailed in volume 3, appendix 11.3 of the Array EIA Report, abundance estimates derived from MRSea modelling were used where available, and supplemented with design-based abundance estimates for months when MRSea estimates were unavailable.
  4. It should be noted that a recent study (Dunn et al., 2024) indicates there is significant temporal and spatial variation in the diving behaviour of auks, with generally a much smaller proportion of time spent diving during the non-breeding season. The correction factors applied (based on studies carried out during the breeding season) are therefore likely to lead to overestimates of the total abundance of auks, especially in the non-breeding season.
  5. Seabirds may not be displaced solely from the Array itself, but also a Zone of Influence (ZoI) around the array. This ZoI is defined as the Array plus a 2km buffer in all directions, in line with the recommended approach (NatureScot 2023h; SNCBs 2022). Therefore, all species, seasonal mean peak abundances used for displacement analysis are based on the abundance within the Array plus 2 km buffer.
  6. The effect of distributional responses on puffin during the non-breeding season are not included. Puffin are known to disperse rapidly and widely post-breeding and are therefore considered unlikely to be affected by the presence of the Array outside the breeding season.
  7. The consequences of a distributional response can include displacement and potentially mortality, with percentage values applied for these. These are presented in Table 5.3   Open ▸ in terms of the values defined in NatureScot (2023h) alongside values that represent the Applicant’s approach. Note that the non-breeding season rate presented in Table 5.3   Open ▸ applies to all seasons other than the breeding season, such as post-breeding and pre-breeding seasons, where relevant. Both sets of values are provided to enable a comparison to be made.

 

Table 5.3:
Displacement and Mortality Rates Included for Consideration in Assessment

Table 5.3: Displacement and Mortality Rates Included for Consideration in Assessment

 

  1. The displacement report (volume 3, appendix 11.3 of the Array EIA Report) provides information on total impacts for the Array, for all birds regardless of their age or origin. For a HRA, it is necessary to ‘apportion’ the total impact to estimate the impact on breeding adults from specific SPAs. Full details of the approach to apportionment are presented in appendix 3A. The approach taken follows NatureScot’s guidance (NatureScot 2023c-d). During the breeding season, a theoretical approach (developed by NatureScot (NatureScot, 2018)) has been applied to determine the proportion of birds from SPA sites which use proposed development areas in the breeding season. In the non-breeding period, the “BDMPS approach” to apportioning that utilises the information presented in Furness (2015), is adopted for most species. For guillemot, NatureScot (2023d) recommend an approach based on evidence that they largely remain in the broad vicinity of their breeding colonies, and this approach has been adopted. In addition, apportionment of guillemot to Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been carried out using the BDMPS approach, as requested by Natural England and the Scottish Ministers (see Table 2.1   Open ▸ ).
  2. It is noted that in the breeding season an alternative apportioning tool can be applied for kittiwake, guillemot, razorbill and shag, referred to as the Butler Tool (Butler et al. 2020). However, the Butler Tool requires an update (which is understood to be pending at the time of writing this RIAA) before it can be applied with the recently updated colony count data (Seabirds Count; Burnell et al., 2023) which itself is an update on the Seabird 2000 data. Utilizing outdated population information such as Seabird 2000 data (which is based on data from 1998 to 2002) not only inaccurately represents todays populations (as data is at least 22 years old) but due to the counts age, there is a lack of compatibility with the baseline characterisation surveys undertaken for the Array. Therefore, the incompatibility between the two datasets suggests that using them simultaneously would not be appropriate. The apportioning undertaken here therefore applies the theoretical approach excluding the Butler Tool but inclusive of the updated colony count data and therefore provides the most up to date apportioning results for the Array.
  3. Following apportioning, there is the potential requirement to undertake PVA. This requirement follows where the potential for impact could exceed a 0.02 percentage point increase to the baseline mortality (following NatureScot 2023k). That guidance states that the use of the Natural England PVA tool (Searle et al., 2019) is required over three time periods (25 years, anticipated operational period of 35 years and 50 years) (NatureScot, 2023k). Given the anticipated operational period of 35 years, the conclusions after 35 years are used as the basis for this assessment, but the 25 year and 50 year results are presented in full in appendix 3B.
  4. If the increase in baseline mortality is below the threshold of 0.02 percentage points, then it can be concluded that there is no possibility for the additional mortality caused by disturbance and displacement to have any discernible impact on the relevant population. Seabird survival and productivity is influenced by environmental stochasticity, leading to natural variation in survival and productivity rates. This natural variation far exceeds a 0.02 percentage point increase in mortality (Horswill & Robinson, 2015) and therefore it can be concluded that the additional mortality would not have an impact on the population size that is detectable within the operational lifespan of the Array. 

                        Auks

  1. A 50% displacement and 1% mortality has been applied for auks in the Applicant’s approach. The Applicant’s approach is in line with that advocated by the developer in many previous offshore wind farm applications as the approach supported by the best available science (e.g. the recent Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm project). The values are considered precautionary, especially in light of the recent publication of the Beatrice Year Two monitoring (Macarthur Green, 2023; Trinder et al., 2024). Since the UK SNCBs published guidance on defining displacement and mortality rates for auks in 2017 (SNCBs, 2022), a number of studies have been undertaken.
  2. For displacement rates, NatureScot recommends that a 60% displacement rate is applied to auks in both the breeding and non-breeding season (NatureScot, 2023h). Real-world displacement rates are variable (APEM, 2022), for example, 44% to 63% was recorded at sites in the German North Sea (Peschko et al., 2020). Following review of data collected from 21 developments, APEM (2022) suggest that a 50% displacement rate is more appropriate for auks. Although greater than 50% displacement was observed at five developments in the APEM (2022) study, all had very low abundance of auks within the study area. Where auk abundance was greater, <50% displacement was recorded. Therefore, considering the abundance of auks within the Array plus 2 km buffer, a 50% displacement rate is considered appropriate (and given the findings at Beatrice noted above) precautionary for the Array.
  3. For mortality rates of displaced birds, work by van Kooten et al. (2019) and APEM (2022) suggest that the recommended mortality rates are overly precautionary. Van Kooten et al. (2019) used individual based models and prey distributions to assess the effects of displacement on auks. The results indicate that breeding season mortality rates in displaced birds are likely to be in the region of 1.0% (van Kooten et al., 2019). APEM (2022) reviewed available literature and concluded that the available evidence is “incompatible” with a 10% mortality rate and the most likely mortality rate is considered to be “negligible or undetectable”. APEM (2022) therefore suggest that a mortality rate of 1% would be more consistent with the available evidence, whilst still being precautionary. Outside the breeding season, auks are typically more widely dispersed and are not tied to a specific coastal site or colony (Camphuysen, 2002; Christie, 2021). With wider dispersal, pressure on individuals to forage in specific areas is lower, and thus displacement is likely to result in lesser effects. This is particularly relevant in the post breeding period, when peaks in auk density were observed at the Array footprint, and when parents with chicks are moving rapidly offshore. A 1% mortality rate for guillemot and razorbill is also in line with advice from the Scottish Ministers to other projects (e.g. Marine Scotland, 2017a,b). Therefore, a 1% mortality rate is applied for the assessment.

                        Gannet

  1. A 70% displacement and 1% mortality has been applied for gannets in the Applicant’s approach, a change in mortality rate only compared to NatureScot (2023h). Masden et al. (2010) assessed the energetic costs of displacement in seabirds. Results suggest that increasing gannet flight distance by 2 km increases energetic cost by 1.25%. A 10 km increase may result in a 4.50% increase in energy expenditure. However, this is based on a foraging range of 160 km, where 10 km represents a 6.25% increase in distance flown. Scaling this to the mean maximum plus 1 SD foraging range of 509 km (Woodward et al., 2019), an additional flight distance of 10 km represents a scaled 1.02% increase in expenditure. This minimal increase in energy expenditure is unlikely to result in notable mortalities. Therefore, also considering the small spatial extent of The Array, the lower end of the recommended mortality rate (1%) is considered appropriate. It has also previously been advised by NatureScot (and Marine Scotland Science) that the assessment of displacement impacts on gannet is not required based on work undertaken by Searle et al. (2014) that although showing gannet were displaced by offshore wind farms this did not lead to population-level effects.

                        Kittiwake

  1. A 30% displacement and 1% mortality has been applied for kittiwake in the Applicant’s approach, a change in mortality rate only compared to NatureScot (2023h). Prior to the current ScotWind Licensing Round, Scottish Minister advice on EIA ornithological assessments for kittiwake displacement (e.g. Marine Scotland, 2017a) was for a displacement rate of 30%, a mortality rate of 2% in the breeding season and a qualitative assessment only in the non-breeding season (in contrast to the advice in the same document from NatureScot (at that time Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH)), which for kittiwake displacement was ‘that there was no need to include kittiwake, the data available from post construction monitoring indicates no significant avoidance behaviour by this species’). In the joint SNCBs (2022) updated and interim advice note on displacement, kittiwake is not included in the ‘more sensitive’ category, scoring too low. In recent consented offshore wind farm projects in England, kittiwake are not typically included within an assessment of displacement as a result of the low sensitivity of the species to the pressure (e.g. for Hornsea Four, kittiwake at Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA was assessed for collision only and not displacement (DESNZ, 2023)).
  2. The low sensitivity of kittiwake to displacement is supported by a number of post-construction studies of seabirds at offshore wind farms, which have concluded that kittiwake was one of the species hardly affected by displacement (Dierschke et al., 2016). Most recently, the Beatrice Year Two monitoring report found there was an overall increase in kittiwake abundance between 2015 and 2021, although this was not significant, with some areas of increase and some of decrease (MacArthur Green, 2023). In relation to wind turbine locations, kittiwake densities were variable in both survey years and overall slightly higher in 2021, but there was no indication of any significant responses, either avoidance or attraction in either year. For kittiwake, the report concluded ‘neither of the pre vs post comparisons indicated any decreases across the wind farm’. A 30% displacement is therefore considered highly precautionary.
  3. Ruffino et al. (2023) reviewed information available on kittiwake foraging behaviour, and from that study it is apparent that kittiwake forage widely across the region, with the Array itself representing a fraction of the total available foraging habitat. Therefore, any kittiwakes that are displaced from the Array will have access to an extensive alternative foraging area. The potential for a displacement mortality to result in the non-breeding season, when kittiwake are not associated with a breeding colony, is even less. A mortality rate of 1% is therefore considered precautionary.

5.2.3.    Changes to prey availability

5.2.3. Changes to prey availability

  1. Changes to prey availability may occur as a result of construction and decommissioning activities, especially those that disturb the seabed. During the operational phase, changes to prey availability are expected to be minimal and therefore this impact has been screened out during the operational phase. The ZoI has been defined as 100km, as considered in the Array EIA Report volume 2, chapter 9 for potential noise impacts on fish.
  2. Changes to prey availability in the construction and decommissioning phases are assessed using a qualitative approach, considering the expected impacts on potential prey species (i.e. fish and benthic invertebrates) and the potential for those to lead to indirect impacts on seabirds that may feed on them.

5.2.4.    Artificial light

5.2.4. Artificial light

  1. This pressure relates to the potential for light pollution to affect the behaviour of birds. Lighting will be used on the Array infrastructure and on vessels throughout all phases. Several types of lighting may be used, including navigational lights, safety lighting, and for illumination if works are conducted between dusk and dawn. The ZoI for artificial light is defined as the zone in which lights may be visible and sufficiently bright to be stimulate a biological response This zone is therefore not a static distance but will vary depending on weather conditions and other factors, along with the species being considered.
  2. The response of birds to nocturnal lighting is complex and the disturbance effects of lighting may derive from changes in disorientation and attraction (phototaxis) or repulsion from the altered light environment, which in turn may affect foraging, migration and communication (Longcore and Rich, 2004). Birds may collide with each other or a structure, or become exhausted as a result. Conversely, for unlit structures at night or during foggy conditions, it is possible that the risk of collision may be greater because moving rotors may not be detectable (Trapp, 1998). Migrating birds are likely to be particularly susceptible to any adverse effects of lighting. Around two thirds of all bird species migrate during darkness, when collision risk is expected to be higher than during daylight (Hüppop et al., 2006). The evidence for this impact mixed. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) (2011) state that birds are somewhat less inclined to avoid wind turbines at night, but in contrast, extended periods of infra-red monitoring at night using a Thermal Animal Detection System (TADS) at Nysted provided unexpected evidence that no movements of birds were detected below 120 m during the hours of darkness, even during periods of heavy seabird migration (Desholm, 2005). Welcker et al. (2017) found nocturnal migrants do not have a higher risk of collision with wind energy facilities than diurnally active species, but rather appear to circumvent collision more effectively.
  3. Lights on wind turbines would need to meet the minimum regulatory requirements as set out in the International Association of Marine Aids to Navigation and Lighthouse (IALA) Recommendation O117 on ‘The Marking of Offshore Wind Farms’ for navigation lighting and by the Civil Aviation Authority in the Air Navigation Orders (Civil Aviation Publication (CAP) 393 and guidance in CAP 764). Whilst subject to these minimum requirements, the Array will not have any additional or unnecessary lighting, which will minimise the risks of migrating birds becoming attracted to, or disorientated by, wind turbines at night or in poor weather.
  4. The recently published review by Deakin et al. (2022) highlighted that likely seabird species susceptible to disorientation and attraction are Manx shearwater, Leach’s petrel and storm petrel. As discussed within volume 3, appendix 11.11 of the Array EIA Report, Leach’s petrel and storm petrel were not recorded during the aerial surveys. Only Manx shearwater was recorded therefore it has been screened in and assessed for lighting impacts. This species is active nocturnally, and there is evidence to suggest they are sensitive to light attraction which could render them especially vulnerable to adverse impacts from offshore wind farms, for example, if attracted to the rotor-swept area by lights on the wind turbines that are required for navigation purposes. The review however identifies critical knowledge gaps relating to light attraction and disorientation. Specific aspects include: the range over which light attraction of nocturnal species may occur (and therefore the size of the light catch basin for wind farms and related activities or infrastructure); the extent to which light attraction is exacerbated by particular meteorological conditions (e.g. fog, rain); the influence of wavelength and pattern of illumination (flashing/steady); the extent to which light attraction differentially affects adults and juveniles, and for how long after fledging juveniles may remain particularly susceptible to light attraction.
  5. Given the current uncertainties surrounding light impacts on Manx shearwater, this species and impact has been screened in for further assessment in the RIAA on a precautionary basis. This is assessed using a qualitative approach.

5.2.5.    Collision risk

5.2.5. Collision risk

  1. This pressure relates to the potential for mortality arising from birds colliding with turbine structures, which will only occur within the Array once operational. Therefore, the ZoI defined for collision risk is the Array only.
  2. Operational wind turbines and associated infrastructure present a collision risk for seabirds flying within the Array. This includes birds commuting between breeding and foraging sites, migrating birds, and those foraging for food within the Array. Direct collision with infrastructure may result in injury or death, however, it is assumed that all collisions with operational wind turbines result in mortality.
  3. For regularly occurring seabirds, CRM was undertaken to produce mathematical based quantitative estimates of the number of collisions per species per season for each year of operation. The input parameters are presented in full in volume 3, appendix 11.2 of the Array EIA Report, with the analysis performed using the StochLab R package (v0.1.1) produced by Caneco et al. (2022), with stochastic and deterministic results presented, as per NatureScot advice on the Array EIA Scoping Report and requested by MD-LOT in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (MD-LOT, 2023).
  4. Collision estimates are based on seabird flight heights, with generic Flight Height Distribution (FHD) data (Johnston et al., 2014) used to determine the proportion of flights at Collision Risk Height (CRH) per species. Density estimates are also incorporated into the model, used to determine flux, or the rate at which each species is likely to fly through the wind farm.
  5. Flight height and density information, along with the wind turbine specifications, number of wind turbines, and other seabird parameters (e.g. size, flight type and nocturnal activity), are used to estimate the number of collisions. Initially, the model assumes that birds within the wind farm do not avoid individual wind turbines, swept areas, or blades, nor do they avoid the whole wind farm (macro-avoidance). Avoidance rates are then applied to adjust collision estimates. It is noted that advice in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (MD-LOT, 2023) referred to the SNCB (2014) rates (as provided in JNCC et al., 2014); revised avoidance rates are now available (Ozsanlav-Harris et al., 2023) which are now recommended by NatureScot (2023g).
  6. For HRA purposes, as for the displacement assessment (section 5.4.1), it is then necessary to ‘apportion’ the impact to multiple SPAs. For the Array, the apportioning values applied are presented in appendix 3A. During the breeding season, a theoretical approach (developed by NatureScot (NatureScot, 2018)) has been applied to determine the proportion of birds from SPA sites which use proposed development areas in the breeding season. In the non-breeding period, the standard approach to apportioning that utilises the information presented in Furness (2015), is adopted. As outlined in the displacement section above (section 5.4.1), an alternative apportioning tool could be applied for certain species (Butler et al. 2020), however due to the reasons provided the tool was not used for collision risk apportionment with the NatureScot method again used.
  7. Following apportioning, there is the potential requirement to undertake PVA. This requirement follows where the potential for impact could exceed a 0.02 percentage point increase to the baseline mortality (following NatureScot 2023k). That guidance states that the use of the Natural England PVA tool (Searle et al., 2019) is required over three time periods (25 years, 35 years (the lease period) and 50 years) (NatureScot (2023k). Given that the lease period is 35 years, the conclusions after 35 years are used as the basis for this assessment, but the 25 year and 50 year results are presented in full in appendix 3B.
  8. If the increase in baseline mortality is below the threshold of 0.02 percentage points, then it can be concluded that there is no possibility for the additional mortality caused by collision to have any discernible impact on the relevant population. Seabird survival and productivity is influenced by environmental stochasticity, leading to natural variation in survival and productivity rates. This natural variation far exceeds a 0.02 percentage point increase in mortality (Horswill and Robinson, 2015) and therefore it can be concluded that the additional mortality would not have an impact on the population size that is detectable within the operational lifespan of the Array.  
  9. Note that the potential for impact made here then differs from the Array EIA Report, for which the impact is determined at population level. At population level, the significance of impact resulting from collision risk was determined to be negligible for all species.
  10. It is recognised that the approach to assessing collision risk for regularly occurring seabirds may not adequately capture the risk to migratory birds. Therefore, a different approach is used for migratory birds that aims to overcome that limitation. For migratory birds, the assessment has been carried out qualitatively by reviewing available information, most significantly Woodward et al. (2023). This has been supplemented by a quantitative estimate of collision risk using the SOSSMAT (Wright et al., 2012). It is noted that a revised mCRM tool is currently being developed; however, at the time of writing this mCRM tool was still undergoing testing and not approved for use in assessment (as agreed with NatureScot, refer to Table 2.1   Open ▸ ). Therefore, the approach used for migratory birds is considered to represent the best currently available scientific approach.

5.2.6.    Barrier to movement

5.2.6. Barrier to movement

  1. As discussed in section 5.2.1, JNCC et al. (2022) defines barrier effects as “a physical factor that limits the migration, or free movement of individuals or populations, thus requiring them to divert from their intended path in order to reach their original destination. This effect is expected to increase the energy expenditure of birds if they have to fly around the area in question in order to reach their goal”.
  2. Once the Array is operational, the presence of wind turbines could create a barrier to the movements of flying birds. This could lead to permanent changes in the flight routes of birds, which in turn would lead to an increase in energy demands, and could result in reduced breeding success and/or reduced survival rates. The ZoI for barrier to movement is defined as the Array only, as there is no impact on birds which would not fly through the Array anyway.
  3. Barriers to movement could affect birds that would pass through the Array on their annual migrations, and also birds that would pass through the Array during their daily movements between their roosting/breeding area and foraging sites. The latter of these scenarios may impose an additional energetic cost to movements at a key period in the annual cycle when seabirds are making daily commutes between foraging grounds at sea and breeding sites. Additional energetic costs could have long term implications for individuals, impacting bird fitness (breeding productivity and survival) and for populations. Barrier effects are considered to be less impactful when affecting migratory flights as avoidance of a single wind farm may be trivial relative to the total length and cost of the journey (Masden et al., 2010; 2012).
  4. As discussed in section 5.2.1, for breeding seabirds, NatureScot (2023h) consider barrier effects alongside displacement as “distributional responses”. This is because it can be difficult to distinguish barrier effects from the effects of displacement, for breeding seabirds foraging in the region. NatureScot (2023h) advise that distributional responses are assessed using the displacement matrix approach, and therefore for breeding seabirds, no separate assessment of barrier to movement is carried out, with impacts considered to be included in the assessments carried out under Disturbance and Displacement (section 5.4.1).

5.2.7.    Entanglement

5.2.7. Entanglement

  1. This pressure relates to the potential for diving seabirds to become entangled as a consequence of the Array. The pressure is screened in for the Array during the operation and maintenance phase only. The ZoI for entanglement is defined as the Array only.
  2. There is a potential risk that diving seabirds could become entangled in mooring lines associated with wind turbine infrastructure (primary entanglement) or in marine debris that itself becomes entangled in mooring lines (secondary entanglement). Primary entanglement is considered unlikely due to mooring lines consisting of thick components meaning small animals, such as birds, cannot physically become entangled (Benjamins et al., 2014). Natural Resources Wales (NRW) have also previously stated that interactions between seabirds and the cables and mooring lines associated with floating offshore wind farms are of negligible importance (Aquaterra and MarineSpace, 2022). There is a greater risk of secondary entanglement with marine debris (such as netting or free-floating fishing line).
  3. There is currently no clear guidance on how to assess the risk of seabird entanglement or how to monitor for an occurrence with respect to floating offshore wind. Due to the physical characteristics of the cables and mooring lines, in the context of the size of diving birds and the lack of evidence for any such entanglement elsewhere, it is considered extremely unlikely that direct entanglement of seabirds will occur with respect to the Array.
  4. Therefore, entanglement, with reference to seabirds, refers solely to secondary entanglement. Depending on the number of new mooring lines and the length of dynamic cable present in the water column, the risks of derelict fishing gear being caught within marine renewable energy structures can increase. Derelict fishing gear is a well-known cause of mortality in marine life, including in seabirds (e.g. Hyrenbach et al., 2020; Berón and Seco Pon, 2021); however, the degree of impact is dependent on the size and location of the gear. As the location of lost gear and the likelihood of it entering the Array at any point in time is difficult to determine, a worst-case scenario for this impact is difficult to establish. Mooring lines and dynamic inter-array cables in the water column will undergo regular inspections during the operation and maintenance phase with inspection frequency more frequent initially for the first two years and then decreasing to an annual schedule. The removal of marine debris from mooring lines and inter-array cables will be undertaken as necessary following monitoring and further relevant action taken if required, based on findings from the inspections. The removal of debris from mooring lines and cables further reduces the likelihood of secondary entanglement.
  5. The Array EIA Report concluded the magnitude of secondary entanglement for seabirds to be negligible, with a sensitivity of low to medium (medium related to diving seabirds, such as auks, which spend the greatest amount of time underwater), with an overall significance of negligible to minor adverse significance.
  6. For this RIAA, the Stage One Screening Report (Ossian OWFL, 2023) identified a potential LSE2 from entanglement to four diving seabirds: guillemot, razorbill, puffin and gannet, based on vulnerability and connectivity to the Array. This list has been refined for this RIAA (see section 3.1 and Table 3.1   Open ▸ ) and a potential LSE2 has been identified only for razorbill, puffin and gannet (including where those species are named components of a seabird assemblage). The impact on these species is assessed using a qualitative approach.

5.3.        Baseline

5.3. Baseline

  1. The population estimates for seabird SPA colonies used to inform the assessments in sections 5.4 and paragraph 349 are taken from the most recent colony count data (Seabirds Count; Burnell et al., 2023), which is based on census surveys undertaken between 2015 – 2021. All counts have been expressed as number of breeding individuals, using the following approaches:
  • Where the count unit is Apparently Occupied Nests (AON), Apparently Occupied Territories (AOT), Apparently Occupied Burrows (AOB) or Apparently Occupied Sites (AOS), the number of breeding individuals is calculated as AON/AOT/AOB/AOS * 2.
  • Where the count unit is individuals counted at the colony (IND) for guillemot or razorbill, the number of breeding individuals is calculated as IND * 0.67 * 2, following Walsh et al. (1995).

5.3.1.    Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

5.3.1. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

  1. The current H5N1 strain of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) was first recorded in the country in  summer 2021 (Falchieri et al. 2022). Although existing systematic reviews indicate that diseases are seldom a key factor leading to the extinction of vertebrates, diseases can cause population crashes, leading to measurable declines in population crashes (Young and VanderWerf, 2023).
  2. Thousands of seabird mortalities attributed to HPAI were reported across the UK in 2022, with minimum losses of almost 20,000 in Scotland alone (NatureScot, 2023l) and by the end of 2022, 17 of the 25 UK breeding seabird species had tested positive for HPAI (APHA, 2023).
  3. In response to the outbreak of HPAI, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) established the HPAI Seabird Surveys Project (Tremlett et al., 2024). This involved a mixture of existing planned surveys, additional volunteer-led surveys and RSPB-led surveys of a number of SPA colonies for 14 priority seabird species[3], and was undertaken between May and July 2023. The survey method followed standard methods outlined in the Seabird Monitoring Handbook (Walsh et al. 1995), enabling comparisons in population changes with the Seabirds Count estimates (Burnell et al., 2023).
  4. The HPAI surveys were not intended to fully update the Seabirds Count data (for example, there were gaps in coverage of some sites, some counts lacked key information such as survey time, some survey counts were estimates rather than accurate counts) and therefore it is still appropriate to apply the Burnell et al., (2023) Seabirds Count data to the assessments in sections 5.4 and 5.5. However, the RSPB HPAI report (Tremlett et al., 2024) is a useful indicator of how certain species are faring in light of the recent HPAI outbreak.
  5. The RSPB HPAI report (Tremlett et al., 2024) showed large declines in gannet of 25% across eight SPAs when compared against the Burnell et al. (2023) pre-HPAI baseline, whereas kittiwake increased by 10% across 21 SPAs and guillemot declined by 6% across 21 SPAs. The RSPB HPAI report (Tremlett et al., 2024) concludes that changes in species such as guillemot may be partially due to other factors as they were already in decline, whereas the decline in gannet is almost certainly attributable to HPAI due to the species showing recent population increases. As set out in volume 3, appendix 11.1, the baseline DAS data was collected between March 2021 and February 2023 and therefore overlaps with the HPAI outbreak. However, the data presented in volume 3, appendix 11.1 of the Array EIA Report does not demonstrate any clear evidence of impact from HPAI when comparing between years.
  6. It is acknowledged that, in the short term at least, HPAI is likely to have an effect on changes in seabird populations. However, it is considered that the most appropriate information to use in sections 5.4 and 5.5 is the baseline DAS data, and the Burnell et al. (2023) population count and population change data to inform the impact assessments. Where information regarding impacts from HPAI is available (primarily from Tremlett et al., 2024) this is discussed in the assessment of a feature in order to inform the conclusion reached alongside those primary data sources.
  7. A summary of the relevant designated sites and their conservation objectives are given below in sections 5.3.2 and 5.3.3. Designated sites with breeding seabird features are discussed first, with sites designated for migratory waterbirds discussed after.

5.3.2.    Seabirds

5.3.2. Seabirds

                        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

  1. Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA is a stretch of south-east facing cliff in Aberdeenshire, located approximately 82.7 km from the Array. The boundary of the SPA follows the boundaries of Bullers of Buchan Coast Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and Collieston to Whinnyfold Coast SSSI, and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1998, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, including five named component species: fulmar, guillemot, herring gull, kittiwake and shag. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to one of the five qualifying features of the breeding seabird assemblage; kittiwake ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The conservation objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Copinsay SPA

  1. The Copinsay SPA comprises a group of islands 4 km off the east coast of Orkney Mainland, approximately 245.4 km from the Array. The islands have a cliffed rocky coastline and maritime vegetation that support large colonies of breeding seabirds. The boundary of the SPA encompasses Copinsay SSSI, and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1994, with the marine extension classified in 2009.
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, such as kittiwake, great black-backed gull, guillemot and fulmar. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to one of the four qualifying features of the breeding seabird assemblage; kittiwake ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Coquet Island SPA

  1. Coquet Island is located 1 km off the coast of Northumberland in north-east England and approximately 147.6 km from the Array. It is a small, flat-topped island with a plateau extent of approximately 7 ha. Coquet Island SPA was first classified in 1985 for its breeding seabirds, with the surrounding marine environment protected by the Northumberland Marine SPA, which was classified in 2017 to protect the foraging areas of these birds.
  2. The site qualifies by regularly supporting four Annex I qualifying features; Arctic tern, roseate tern, common tern and Sandwich tern, and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds. The assemblage comprises two additional named component species; black-headed gull and puffin. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to one of the five qualifying features of the breeding seabird assemblage; puffin ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The conservation objectives of this SPA (as determined through Natural England’s Access to Evidence) are to:
  • ensure that the integrity of the site is maintained or restored as appropriate, and ensure that the site contributes to achieving the aims of the Wild Birds Directive, by maintaining or restoring:

-        the extent and distribution of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-        the structure and function of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-        the supporting processes on which the habitats of the qualifying features rely;

-        the populations of each of the qualifying features; and

-        the distribution of qualifying features within the site.

                        East Caithness Cliffs SPA

  1. East Caithness Cliffs SPA includes most of the sea-cliff areas between Wick and Helmsdale on the north-east coast of the Scottish mainland. The SPA is located approximately 211.8 km from the Array. The boundary of the SPA overlaps either partly or wholly with Castle of Old Wick to Craig Hammel SSSI, Craig Hammel to Sgaps Geo SSSI, Dunbeath to Sgaps Geo SSSI, Berriedale Cliffs SSSI, Ousdale Burn SSSI and Helmsdale Coast SSSI. The SPA was classified in 1996, with a marine extension classified in 2009. The seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.1 for its peregrine population, and under Article 4.2 for supporting breeding populations of guillemot, herring gull, kittiwake, razorbill and shag, as well as regularly supporting in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, including nine named component species: cormorant, fulmar, great-blacked backed gull, guillemot, herring gull, kittiwake, razorbill and shag. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to the breeding seabird assemblage and two of the nine qualifying features; kittiwake and razorbill ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Fair Isle SPA

  1. The island of Fair Isle is the most southerly of the Shetland group, lying halfway between Mainland Shetland and Orkney, approximately 291.1 km from the Array. The boundary of Fair Isle SPA is coincident with Fair Isle SSSI and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1994, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There is one Annex I qualifying seabird feature, Arctic tern, and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting one migratory seabird species, guillemot and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, including eight additional component species; razorbill, puffin, fulmar, gannet, shag, Arctic skua, great skua and kittiwake. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to one of the ten qualifying features of the breeding seabird assemblage; gannet ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Farne Islands SPA

  1. The Farne Islands SPA are a group of low-lying islands located 2 km to 8 km off the coast of Northumberland in north-east England, approximately 120.9 km from the Array. The Farne Islands was first classified as an SPA in 1985, with the surrounding marine environment protected by the Northumberland Marine SPA, which was classified in 2017 to protect the foraging areas of breeding seabirds (Natural England, ND).
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds. The site regularly supports more than 1% of the Great Britian populations of four species listed in Annex I of the EC Birds Directive: common tern, Arctic tern, roseate tern and Sandwich tern, and regularly supports more than 1% of the biogeographical population of one regularly occurring migratory species: guillemot. During the breeding season, the site also supports key assemblage components such as puffin, cormorant, shag and kittiwake. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to two of the nine qualifying features of the breeding seabird assemblage; kittiwake and puffin ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The conservation objectives of this SPA (as determined through Natural England’s Access to Evidence) are to:
  • ensure that the integrity of the site is maintained or restored as appropriate, and ensure that the site contributes to achieving the aims of the Wild Birds Directive, by maintaining or restoring:

-          the extent and distribution of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-          the structure and function of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-          the supporting processes on which the habitats of the qualifying features rely;

-          the populations of each of the qualifying features; and

-          the distribution of qualifying features within the site.

                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

  1. The coastal section of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA covers a slender strip of cliffs and hinterland along the coastline of the counties of North Yorkshire and the East Riding of Yorkshire, located approximately 248.5 km from the Array.
  2. The SPA is in two sections: the southern section extends north from South Landing around Flamborough Head to Speeton; the northern section covers the peninsula of Filey Brigg before extending north-west to Cunstone Nab. The seaward boundary extends 2 km into the marine environment throughout the two sections of the site. Flamborough Head and Bempton Cliffs was classified as an SPA in 1993, with the site extended and renamed as the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA in 2018 (Natural England, ND).
  3. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by supporting over 1% of the biogeographical populations of four regularly occurring migratory species; kittiwake, gannet, guillemot and razorbill, and a breeding seabird assemblage of European importance, including these four species and also fulmar. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to of the breeding seabird assemblage and three of the five qualifying features; gannet, guillemot and kittiwake ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  4. The conservation objectives of this SPA (as determined through Natural England Access to Evidence) are to:
  • ensure that the integrity of the site is maintained or restored as appropriate, and ensure that the site contributes to achieving the aims of the Wild Birds Directive, by maintaining or restoring:

-          the extent and distribution of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-          the structure and function of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-          the supporting processes on which the habitats of the qualifying features rely;

-          the populations of each of the qualifying features; and

-          the distribution of qualifying features within the site.

 

  1. Supplementary advice on the Conservation Objectives is provided for this SPA, prompted by the notable decline observed in one of the regularly occurring species; kittiwake. Site-specific monitoring targets for species populations state “where the limits of natural fluctuations are not known, maintain the population above 75% of that at designation–- loss of 25% or more unacceptable”. At designation, population count was 89,040 breeding adults. Therefore, a population of 66,789 individuals or above should be maintained.

                        Forth Islands SPA

  1. The Forth Islands SPA comprises seabird colonies on multiple islands in the Firth of Forth, south-east Scotland. The SPA is approximately 126.3 km from the Array. The SPA encompasses the islands of the Isle of May, Inchmickery, Fidra, The Lamb, Craigleith, Bass Rock (all of which were classified in April 1990) and Long Craig (which was an extension to the site and was classified in February 2004). The SPA is underpinned by the following SSSIs: Long Craig, Inchmickery, Forth Islands, Bass Rock and the Isle of May. There is a seaward extension from each island of the SPA extending approximately 2 km into the marine environment (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There are four Annex I qualifying features: Arctic tern, roseate tern, common tern and Sandwich tern, and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting four migratory seabird species: lesser black-backed gull, puffin, gannet and shag and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds. The site supports five named components kittiwake, herring gull, guillemot, razorbill and cormorant. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to the breeding seabird assemblage and three of the 13 species; gannet, kittiwake and puffin (Table 5 1).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Fowlsheugh SPA

  1. The Fowlsheugh SPA is a mainland seabird colony on the coast of Aberdeenshire, north-east Scotland. The SPA is approximately 81.3 km from the Array. The site was classified in August 1992, with an additional 2 km marine extension to the site classified in September 2009. The SPA is underpinned by the Fowlsheugh SSSI (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There are no Annex I qualifying features and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting populations of European importance of guillemot and kittiwake, as well as supporting a breeding seabird assemblage of in excess of 20,000 individual seabirds, including guillemot and kittiwake, as well as three other named species: herring gull, razorbill and fulmar. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to the breeding seabird assemblage and two of the five species; kittiwake and razorbill ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

  1. Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA lies in the north-west corner of the island of Unst, Shetland, at the northernmost tip of Britain and approximately 424.9 km from the Array. The boundary of the SPA is coincident with that of the Hermaness SSSI, Saxa Vord SSSI, and Valla Field SSSI and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 2001, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There is one Annex I qualifying seabird feature (red-throated diver) and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting three migratory seabird species: great skua, puffin and gannet, and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds including kittiwake, guillemot, fulmar and shag. The potential for LSE2 has been identified for the breeding seabird assemblage and gannet ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA

  1. North Caithness Cliffs SPA includes sea-cliff areas between Freswick Bay and Strathy Point on the north coast of the Scottish mainland, in addition to the island of Stroma. The site is located approximately 229.1 km from the Array. The boundary of the SPA overlaps either partly or wholly with Duncansby Head Site of SSSI, Stroma SSSI, Dunnet Head SSSI, Holborn Head SSSI, and Red Point Coast SSSI. The seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1996, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.1 by regularly supporting breeding peregrine falcon. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting one migratory seabird species; guillemot, and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds. The assemblage includes four additional named species; fulmar, razorbill, puffin and kittiwake. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to the seabird assemblage feature, due to the potential impact on one of these five named species: kittiwake ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA

  1. The uninhabited islands of North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA, together with several outlying rocky islets and adjacent waters, lie 65 km north of Lewis and approximately 383.4 km from the Array. The coastlines of both islands consist mainly of cliffs except for two low-lying peninsulas on North Rona. Sula Sgeir lies about 15 km west of North Rona. The boundary of the SPA overlaps with the boundary of North Rona and Sula Sgeir SSSI, and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 2001, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There are two Annex I qualifying features (Leach’s petrel and storm petrel) and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting two migratory seabird species (gannet and guillemot) and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, with the breeding seabird assemblage feature including five named species: kittiwake, great black-backed gull, puffin, razorbill and fulmar. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to the breeding seabird assemblage and one of these species; gannet ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Noss SPA

  1. Noss is an offshore island lying 5 km east of Lerwick, Shetland, approximately 357.5 km from the Array. The boundary of the SPA overlaps that of the Noss SSSI and NNR and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1996, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting three migratory seabird species; gannet, great skua and guillemot, and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds comprising of the additional species; kittiwake, puffin and fulmar. The potential for LSE2 has been identified for the breeding seabird assemblage and gannet ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

  1. The Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex is an extensive SPA off the south-east coast of Scotland. It stretches from Arbroath in the North to St Abb’'s Head in the South and encompasses the Firth of Forth, the outer Firth of Tay and St Andrews Bay. The waters in this SPA attract one of the largest and most diverse marine bird concentrations in Scotland and the site is classified for the protection of 21 seabird and waterbird species. It covers an area of c. 2,721 km2 and complements adjacent SPAs, such as the Firth of Forth SPA, the Forth Islands SPA, the Imperial Dock, Leith SPA and the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA (NatureScot, ND).
  2. During the breeding season, the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA provides feeding grounds for a large assemblage of over 100,000 seabirds, including common terns, Arctic terns, shags, gannets, puffins, kittiwakes, Manx shearwaters, guillemots and herring gulls (NatureScot, ND).
  3. With regards to breeding seabirds, the JNCC and NatureScot (2022) Conservation and Management Advice lists the following SPA colonies as using the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA for foraging:
  • Arctic tern:

-        Forth Islands SPA

  • Common tern:

-        Imperial Dock Lock SPA;

-        Forth Islands SPA

  • Kittiwake:

-        Forth Islands SPA

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

-        Fowlsheugh SPA

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

  • Gannet:

-        Forth Islands SPA

  • Guillemot:

-        Forth Islands SPA

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

-        Fowlsheugh SPA

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

  • Herring gull:

-        Forth Islands SPA

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

-        Fowlsheugh SPA

  • Puffin:

-        Forth Islands SPA

  • Shag:

-        Forth Islands SPA

  1. During winter, the site protects important feeding, moulting and roosting grounds of inshore waterbirds, such as red-throated divers, Slavonian grebes, eiders, long-tailed ducks, common scoters, velvet scoters, goldeneyes and red-breasted mergansers. Many of these birds migrate to Scotland every year to overwinter or use the site as a staging post while on migration.
  2. Outside of the breeding season, the site is also notable for its assemblage of over 40,000 overwintering seabirds, consisting of guillemots, shags and kittiwakes, but also razorbills, little gulls, black-headed gulls, common gulls and herring gulls.
  3. The Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA is located approximately 90 km to the southwest of the Array (at the closest point). As set out above, the SPA supports foraging seabirds from a range of SPA breeding colonies. However, this RIAA  already assesses the impacts of the Array on each of these SPA colonies where an LSE2 occurs, and therefore the impacts on the breeding seabird qualifying features of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA focuses on impacts occurring on birds whilst they are within the SPA itself, rather than impacts from the Array on the colonies of seabirds that forage within the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA.
  4. Therefore, the Array itself will not lead to any impacts on the SPA or it’s qualifying species during any phases of the project. Instead, impacts will be confined to disturbance and displacement impacts resulting directly from vessel movements through the SPA itself.
  5. The potential for LSE2 has been identified for qualifying species, or named species of a qualifying assemblage of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA, with a sensitivity to disturbance associated vessels of moderate or greater (i.e. levels 3 “moderate” to 5 “very high”) according to Wade et al. (2016). Therefore, potential LSE2 has been identified for non-breeding red-throated diver, Slavonian grebe, eider, shag, five species from the migratory waterbird assemblage (long-tailed duck, common scoter, velvet scoter, goldeneye and red-breasted merganser), three species from the non-breeding seabird assemblage (guillemot, razorbill and shag (which are already listed)) and two species from the breeding seabird assemblage (puffin and guillemot (which are already listed)) ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  6. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • To ensure  that the qualifying features of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA are in favourable condition and make an appropriate contribution to achieving Favourable Conservation Status; and
  • To ensure that the integrity of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA is restored in the context of environmental changes by meeting objectives 2a, 2b and 2c for each qualifying feature:

-        2a The populations of the qualifying features are viable components of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA;

-        2b. The distribution of the qualifying features is maintained throughout the site by avoiding significant disturbance of the species; and

-        2c. The supporting habitats and processes relevant to qualifying features and their prey resources are maintained, or where appropriate restored, at the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA.

                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

  1. The St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA is located on the Berwickshire coast in south-east Scotland, at approximately 125.5 km from the Array. The SPA was designated in 1997 and comprises an area of sea cliffs and coastal strip along which there are multiple seabird colonies, with a seaward extension which extends approximately 1 km into the marine environment (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There are no Annex I qualifying features and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting in excess of 20,000 individual seabirds, with the breeding seabird assemblage feature including five named component species; kittiwake, herring gull, guillemot, razorbill and shag. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to one of the five species of the breeding seabird assemblage; kittiwake ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        St Kilda SPA

  1. St Kilda is a group of remote Scottish islands lying in the North Atlantic about 70 km west of North Uist in the Outer Hebrides and is approximately 468.4 km from the Array. The SPA was designated in 1992, with marine extension classified on 25 September 2009. The boundary of the SPA overlaps with the boundary of St. Kilda SSSI, and the seaward extension extends approximately 4 km into the marine environment to include the seabed, water column and surface (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The site qualifies by regularly supporting two Annex I species; Leach’s petrel and storm petrel, and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 for its breeding populations of gannet, great skua and puffin, as well as by regularly supporting in excess of 20,000 individual seabirds. Additional named components of the seabird assemblage are kittiwake, guillemot, razorbill, fulmar and Manx shearwater. The potential for LSE2 has been identified for the breeding seabird assemblage, gannet and Manx shearwater ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The draft conservation objectives (NatureScot, ND) of the St Kilda SPA are to:
  • To ensure that the qualifying features of St Kilda SPA and the Seas off St Kilda SPA are in favourable condition and make an appropriate contribution to achieving Favourable Conservation Status.
  • To ensure that the integrity of St Kilda SPA and the Seas off St Kilda SPA is restored in the context of environmental changes by meeting objectives 2a, 2b and 2c for each qualifying feature:

-        The populations of qualifying features are viable components of St Kilda SPA and Seas off St Kilda SPA.

-        The distributions of the qualifying features throughout St Kilda SPA and Seas off St Kilda SPA are maintained by avoiding significant disturbance of the species.

-        The supporting habitats and processes relevant to qualifying features and their prey/food resources are maintained, or where appropriate restored, at St Kilda SPA and/or Seas off St Kilda SPA.

                        Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA

  1. Sule Skerry and Sule Stack are isolated islets 60 km west of Mainland, Orkney, approximately 320.4 km from the Array. Sule Skerry is larger, low-lying and vegetated whereas Sule Stack is a higher, bare rock stack. The boundary of the SPA overlaps with those of Sule Skerry SSSI and Sule Stack SSSI and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1994, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. There are two Annex I qualifying features (Leach’s petrel and storm petrel) and the site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting two migratory seabird species (breeding gannet and puffin) and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, including guillemot and shag. The potential for LSE2 has been identified in relation to the breeding seabird assemblage and one of these species; gannet ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

  1. The Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA is a 9 km stretch of sea cliffs along the Aberdeenshire coast, situated approximately 120.6 km from the Array. The boundary of the SPA overlaps with the boundary of Gamrie and Pennan coast SSSI and the seaward extension extends approximately 2 km into the marine environment. The SPA was classified in 1997, with the marine extension classified in 2009 (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The site qualifies under Article 4.2 by regularly supporting two migratory seabird species; guillemot and kittiwake, and in excess of 20,000 breeding seabirds, including three named component species; herring gull, razorbill and fulmar. The potential for LSE2 has been identified for the breeding seabird assemblage and kittiwake ( Table 5.1   Open ▸ ).
  3. The Conservation Objectives of this SPA (as determined from NatureScot’s SiteLink (NatureScot, ND)) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

5.3.3.    Migratory Waterbirds

5.3.3. Migratory Waterbirds

  1. Information on migratory waterbirds and SPAs designated for them comes from the SPA Citation and JNCC Data Form (JNCC, 2022) and Ramsar Information Sheet (RSIS, ND) for each site, supplemented with additional information where noted.

                        Cameron Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Cameron Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site has a total area of 68.71 ha. It contains an artificial loch with beds of aquatic and marginal vegetation. The open water is used as a roost by an internationally important wintering population of pink-footed geese, that feed on the surrounding farmland. The boundary of the SPA is coincident with that of Cameron Reservoir SSSI (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for pink-footed goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for this species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Din Moss – Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Din Moss – Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site is located on the northern slopes of the Cheviot Hills in southern Scotland. Hoselaw Loch is a mid-attitude loch that is surrounded by Din Moss, an area of raised bog with associated lagg fens. Din Moss – Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site has a total area of 50.58 ha. It contains a small freshwater lake with associated fen and raised mire that provides a roosting site for internationally important numbers of wintering geese (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for greylag goose (non-breeding) and pink-footed goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for these species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site is situated within the Lammermuir Hills in the Scottish Southern Uplands. Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site has an area of 317.75 ha. The site consists of a blanket mire, with some pools which support an internationally important goose roost (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for pink-footed goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for this species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Firth of Forth SPA and Ramsar site

  1. The Firth of Forth SPA consists of estuarine and coastal habitats in south-east Scotland stretching from Alloa to the coasts of Fife and East Lothian. The boundary of the SPA mostly follows that of the Firth of Forth SSSI and slightly overlaps with Forth Islands SPA. The Firth of Forth SPA and Ramsar site is a large coastal area comprising a complex of estuaries, mudflats, rocky shorelines, beaches and saltmarshes, including many fragmentary bits of shoreline considered to act as a single ecological unit. Several large urban areas, including Edinburgh, are adjacent to the site and include areas of heavy industry and well-used maritime shipping lanes. The site provides habitat for large numbers of wintering waders and wildfowl, many in nationally and internationally important numbers (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding), golden plover (non-breeding), knot (non-breeding), pink-footed goose (non-breeding), red-throated diver (non-breeding), redshank (non-breeding), Sandwich tern (passage), shelduck (non-breeding), Slavonian grebe (non-breeding), turnstone (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including the following additional named components; scaup, great crested grebe, cormorant, curlew, eider, long-tailed duck, common scoter, velvet scoter, goldeneye, red-breasted merganser, oystercatcher, ringed plover, grey plover, dunlin, mallard, lapwing and wigeon. A potential LSE2 has been identified for all of these species and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA and Ramsar site

  1. The Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA is a complex of estuarine and coastal habitats in eastern Scotland from the mouth of the River Earn in the inner Firth of Tay, east to Barry Sands on the Angus coast and St Andrews on the Fife coast. For much of its length the main channel of the estuary lies close to the southern shore and the most extensive intertidal flats are on the north side, west of Dundee. In Monifieth Bay, to the east of Dundee, the substrate becomes sandier and there are also mussel beds. The south shore consists of fairly steeply shelving mud and shingle. The Inner Tay Estuary is particularly noted for the continuous dense stands of common reed along its northern shore. These reedbeds, inundated during high tides, are amongst the largest in Britain. Eastwards, as conditions become more saline, there are areas of saltmarsh, a relatively scarce habitat in eastern Scotland. The boundary of the SPA is contained within the following Sites of Special Scientific Interest: Inner Tay Estuary, Monifieth Bay, Barry Links, Tayport -Tentsmuir Coast and Eden Estuary (JNCC, 2022).
  2. At least four species of wintering waterbird are present above the 1% threshold of international importance, and on average some 48,000 waterbirds are supported there in winter, including 14 species in nationally important numbers.
  3. The site is designated for little tern (breeding), bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding), greylag goose (non-breeding), pink-footed goose (non-breeding), redshank (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including the following additional named components; cormorant, velvet scoter, shelduck, eider, common scoter, Icelandic black-tailed godwit, goldeneye, red-breasted merganser, goosander, oystercatcher, grey plover, sanderling, dunlin and long-tailed duck. A potential LSE2 has been identified for all of these species, with the exception of little tern, and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.
  4. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Gladhouse Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Gladhouse Reservoir SPA lies in the Moorfoot Hills of the Southern Uplands of Scotland, about 20 km south of Edinburgh. The boundary of the SPA is coincident with the Gladhouse Reservoir SSSI and has a total area of 186.58 ha (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for pink-footed goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for this species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Greenlaw Moor SPA and Ramsar site

  1. The Greenlaw Moor SPA is located in the southern Lammermuir Hills. The site includes two pools surrounded by an area of moorland. Greenlaw Moor SPA and Ramsar site has a total area of 245.81 ha. The site consists of an important heather moorland and includes raised mire and two pools. The area of raised moss is well developed and supports a typical flora, including regionally uncommon mosses. Internationally important numbers of pink-footed geese winter at the site (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for pink-footed goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for this species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Holburn Lake and Moss SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Holburn Lake and Moss is located about 5 km inland from the coast of Northumberland in north-east England. The site comprises part of a lowland raised mire and parts of the adjacent slopes that form its catchment area. Holburn Lake and Moss SPA and Ramsar site has a total area of 27.96 ha. It contains an artificial lake and island supporting reedbeds and adjacent mire areas supporting various species of typical mire vegetation. The lake is a roosting site for internationally important numbers of geese (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for greylag goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for this species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are to ensure that the integrity of the site is maintained or restored as appropriate, and ensure that the site contributes to achieving the aims of the Wild Birds Directive, by maintaining or restoring;
  • the extent and distribution of the habitats of the qualifying features;
  • the structure and function of the habitats of the qualifying features;
  • the supporting processes on which the habitats of the qualifying features rely;
  • the population of each of the qualifying features; and
  • the distribution of the qualifying features within the site.

                        Lindisfarne SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Lindisfarne, or Holy Island, is a large island off the north-east coast of Northumberland. The SPA, designated in 1990, is also a Ramsar site and a National Nature Reserve, managed by Natural England. The site consists of extensive intertidal flats, with a large area of saltmarsh, a major sand dune system which supports beds of Zostera. The slacks provide food for an internationally important flock of wintering light-bellied brent geese. Various species of ducks and geese winter in internationally important numbers regularly exceeding 20,000 individuals. The site is of national importance for breeding terns. The dune systems support a rich flora and diverse invertebrate fauna (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for, bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding), common scoter (non-breeding), dunlin (non-breeding), eider (non-breeding), golden plover (non-breeding), grey plover (non-breeding), greylag goose (non-breeding), light-bellied brent goose (non-breeding), long-tailed duck (non-breeding), red-breasted merganser (non-breeding), redshank (non-breeding), ringed plover (non-breeding), sanderling (non-breeding), shelduck (non-breeding) and whooper swan (non-breeding) and wigeon (non-breeding). A potential LSE2 has been identified for all of these species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are to:
  • ensure that the integrity of the site is maintained or restored as appropriate, and ensure that the site contributes to achieving the aims of the Wild Birds Directive, by maintaining or restoring;

-        the extent and distribution of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-        the structure and function of the habitats of the qualifying features;

-        the supporting processes on which the habitats of the qualifying features rely;

-        the population of each of the qualifying features, and; and

-        the distribution of the qualifying features within the site.

                        Loch of Kinnordy SPA and Ramsar site

  1. The Loch of Kinnordy SPA is a eutrophic loch with associated wet meadows and marshes in Angus, Scotland. The site is of international importance for its wintering and breeding birds. Loch of Kinnordy SPA and Ramsar site has a total area of 86 ha. It contains a nutrient-rich loch and associated wetland communities consisting of basin mire, swamp, and fen. The boundary of the SPA is coincident with that of the Loch of Kinnordy Site of Special Scientific Interest (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for greylag goose (non-breeding) and pink-footed goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for these species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Loch Leven SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Loch Leven in central Scotland is the largest natural eutrophic lake in Britain. It is a relatively shallow loch, surrounded by farmland, with a diverse aquatic flora and shoreline vegetation. The boundary of the Loch Leven SPA follows that of the Loch Leven SSSI except for the exclusion of 4 ha of SSSI towards the northern end of the loch (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for whooper swan (non-breeding), pink-footed goose (non-breeding), shoveler (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including the following additional named components; cormorant, gadwall, teal, pochard, tufted duck and goldeneye. A potential LSE2 has been identified for all of these species and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Montrose Basin SPA and Ramsar site

  1. The Montrose Basin SPA contains the enclosed estuary of the River South Esk on the east coast of Scotland, and Dun's Dish, a small eutrophic loch 4 km north-west of the Basin. It contains areas of mudflat, marsh and agricultural land and supports a diverse assemblage of wintering waterbird of outstanding nature conservation and scientific importance. The boundaries of Montrose Basin SPA follow those of Montrose Basin SSSI and Dun's Dish SSSI (JNCC, 2022).
  2. Montrose Basin SPA and Ramsar site is located on the east coast of Scotland north of Dundee. It has a total area of 981.19 ha. The site, relatively unimpacted by development, consists of an enclosed estuary, mudflats, marsh, and a small nutrient-rich loch. Due to its unusual hydrology, there is a high species diversity in the intertidal zone. Internationally important numbers of pink-footed geese, greylag geese, and redshank winter at the site. Human activities include recreation, agriculture, and livestock grazing.
  3. The site is designated for greylag goose (non-breeding), pink-footed goose (non-breeding), redshank (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including the following additional named components; oystercatcher, eider, wigeon, knot, dunlin and shelduck. A potential LSE2 has been identified for all of these species and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.

 

  1. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Northumbria Coast SPA and Ramsar site

  1. The Northumbria Coast SPA is located in north-east England and includes much of the coastline between the Tees and Tweed Estuaries. The site consists of mainly discrete sections of rocky shore with associated boulder and cobble beaches. The SPA also includes parts of three artificial pier structures and a small section of sandy beach. In summer, the site supports an internationally important population of breeding little tern and Arctic tern, and two species of wintering waders occur in internationally important numbers, turnstone and purple sandpiper. The Northumbria Coast SPA was classified in 2000, and qualifies under Article 4.1 of the due to supporting breeding Arctic tern and little tern, and under Article 4.2 due to supporting two migratory species; turnstone and purple sandpiper. A potential LSE2 has been identified for turnstone and purple sandpiper (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are to ensure that the integrity of the site is maintained or restored as appropriate, and ensure that the site contributes to achieving the aims of the Wild Birds Directive, by maintaining or restoring:
  • the extent and distribution of the habitats of the qualifying features;
  • the structure and function of the habitats of the qualifying features;
  • the supporting processes on which the habitats of the qualifying features rely;
  • the population of each of the qualifying features; and
  • the distribution of the qualifying features within the site.

                        Slamannan Platea SPA

  1. Slamannan Plateau lies just east of Cumbernauld, in the headwaters of the River Avon. It consists of two small lochs and their surrounding peatlands and associated areas of rough and improved grassland. These habitats support roosting and feeding Taiga bean geese during periods in winter. It has a total area of 590.91 ha (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for Taiga bean goose (non-breeding), and a potential LSE2 has been identified for this species.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site

  1. South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site comprises seven lochs, a number of smaller water bodies and other wetland habitats in Strathearn and Strathallan to the west of Perth. The site is overlapped completely by parts of three SSSI: Carsebreck and Rhynd Lochs SSSI, Drummond Lochs SSSI, and Dupplin Lakes SSSI. South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site has a total area of 332.17 ha. The lochs provide roost sites for internationally important numbers of wintering geese and for nationally important numbers of nesting ducks (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for greylag goose (non-breeding), pink-footed goose (non-breeding), wigeon (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including these same species as the main named components. A potential LSE2 has been identified for all of these species and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Westwater SPA and Ramsar site

  1. Westwater SPA and Ramsar site is located 320 m above sea level in the Pentland Hills. The boundary of the SPA is coincident with Westwater Reservoir SSSI and has a total area of 49.8 ha. The site supports internationally important numbers of wintering pink-footed geese, among various other wintering waterbirds (JNCC, 2022).
  2. The site is designated for pink-footed goose (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including pink-footed goose as the main named component. A potential LSE2 has been identified for this species and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.
  3. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • to avoid deterioration of the habitats of the qualifying species or significant disturbance to the qualifying species, thus ensuring that the integrity of the site is maintained; and
  • to ensure for the qualifying species that the following are maintained in the long term:

-        population of the species as a viable component of the site;

-        distribution of the species within site;

-        distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species;

-        structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species; and

-        no significant disturbance of the species.

                        Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA/Ythan Estuary and Meikle Loch Ramsar site

  1. Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA covers a complex area in the north-east of Scotland that contains the long, narrow estuary of the River Ythan, the Sands of Forvie on the east bank of the estuary; the eutrophic Meikle Loch and a marine component covering the area between Aberdeen and Cruden Bay to the north. The boundaries of the SPA follow those of Sands of Forvie and Ythan Estuary SSSI and the shore of Meikle Loch and Little Loch within Meikle Loch and Kippet Hills SSSI (JNCC, 2022).
  2. Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA has a total area of 7062.03 ha. The site is a combination of inland wetlands and marine and coastal wetlands. The area is a waterbird wintering ground and supports well over 20,000 waterbirds. The main activities in the area include nature conservation, recreation, fishing, rough or shifting grazing.
  3. The site is designated for common tern (breeding), little tern (breeding), Sandwich tern (breeding), pink-footed goose (non-breeding) and non-breeding waterbird assemblage including the following additional named components; eider, lapwing and redshank. A potential LSE2 has been identified for pink-footed goose and the non-breeding waterbird assemblage.
  4. The conservation objectives for the site (JNCC, 2022) are:
  • To ensure that the qualifying features of Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA are in favourable condition and make an appropriate contribution to achieving Favourable Conservation Status.
  • To ensure that the integrity of Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA is restored in the context of environmental changes by meeting the following objectives for each qualifying feature:

-        The populations of the qualifying features are viable components of the site.

-        The distributions of the qualifying features throughout the site are maintained by avoiding significant disturbance of the species.

-        The supporting habitats and processes relevant to the qualifying features and their prey/food resources are maintained, or where appropriate, restored.

5.4.        Assessment of the Adverse Effects Alone

5.4. Assessment of the Adverse Effects Alone

5.4.1.    Disturbance and Displacement

5.4.1. Disturbance and Displacement

  1. The LSE2 assessment during the HRA screening process identified that during construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases, LSE2 could not be ruled out for disturbance and displacement. This relates to the following European sites and relevant marine ornithological features:
  • Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • Copinsay SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • Coquet Island SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin).

  • East Caithness Cliffs SPA

-          kittiwake (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Fair Isle SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding gannet).

  • Farne Islands SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin and breeding kittiwake).

  • Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

-          gannet (breeding);

-          guillemot (breeding);

-          kittiwake (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Forth Islands SPA

-          gannet (breeding);

-          puffin (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and breeding kittiwake).

  • Fowlsheugh SPA

-          kittiwake (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and breeding razorbill).

  • Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

-          gannet (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • North Caithness Cliffs SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA

-          gannet (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Noss SPA

-          gannet (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

-        non-breeding red-throated diver;

-        non-breeding Slavonian grebe;

-        non-breeding eider;

-        non-breeding shag;

-        migratory waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on non-breeding long-tailed duck, common scoter, velvet scoter, goldeneye and red-breasted merganser);

-        non-breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on non-breeding guillemot, shag and razorbill); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin and guillemot).

  • St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • St Kilda SPA

-          gannet (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA

-          gannet (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA

-          kittiwake (breeding); and

-          breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  1. The MDS considered within the assessment of disturbance and displacement is shown in Table 5.4   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.4:
MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Disturbance and Displacement During the Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Phases

Table 5.4: MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Disturbance and Displacement During the Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning Phases

Table 5.5:
Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Disturbance and Displacement During the Construction Phase

Table 5.5: Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Disturbance and Displacement During the Construction Phase

 

                        Construction phase

                        Breeding Seabirds
  1. Direct disturbance to breeding seabird populations during the construction phase may arise within the Array (and its immediate vicinity) as a result of increased vessel movements and helicopter activity, as well as from other activities directly associated with the installation of the wind turbine foundations and other infrastructure, whilst there will also be increased vessel activity along the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) due to the cable laying activities.
  2. Few studies have directly considered displacement rates during the construction phase of an offshore wind farm. Most studies have compared pre-construction to post-construction. It is expected that the amount of displacement during the construction phase of the Array would be significantly less than that during the operational phase due to there being a smaller footprint whilst the Array is being constructed the number of wind turbines present at the Array will vary from none at the start of the construction phase through to the maximum number as defined in the MDS ( Table 5.4   Open ▸ ).
  3. The total area to be affected by such disturbance over the period of construction also represents a small proportion of the total area of marine habitat available to seabirds. Within the breeding season, the Array will only occupy a small portion of the total foraging habitat available. The total footprint of the Array is 858 km2, and in order for the entire array to be within foraging range from a colony, a seabird’s range would need to be at least 140 km. With a foraging range of exactly 140 km (which is therefore the worst case), and assuming available foraging habitat occupies a semi-circle from the colony (a reasonable estimate for mainland colonies; for island colonies the available foraging habitat will be even greater), the total foraging habitat available would be 30,792 km2. The Array therefore occupies, as a worst case, 2.8% of the available foraging habitat within the breeding season. Outside the breeding season, seabirds are not constrained to foraging within range of a colony and therefore the proportion of habitat occupied by the Array is lower still.
  4. Any impacts resulting from disturbance and displacement during the construction phase, if experienced at all, are considered to be less impactful than those felt during operation and maintenance. Any impacts would be temporary and reversible in nature, lasting only for the duration of construction activities.
  5. Therefore, it is expected that the impact of disturbance and displacement during the construction phase for the Array alone will be negligible. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there will be no Adverse Effect On Integrity (AEOI) on any breeding seabird feature of any site during the construction phase.
                        Non-breeding Seabirds in the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA
  1. An additional assessment has been carried out to assess the potential impact on non-breeding seabird features of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA. This is the only site screened in which has non-breeding seabird features.
  2. The location of ports for the construction of the Array has not been determined prior to application. However, the use of a port or ports located within the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA cannot be ruled out. Therefore, as a worst-case scenario the MDS assumes that all vessel movements required for all phases of the project will pass through the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA. This equates to up to 7,902 return vessel trips during construction.
  3. Construction will take up to eight years. Therefore, 7,902 return vessel trips averages out at 988 return vessel trips per year or 2.7 return trips a day. Based on this, it is assumed that there will be, on average, 2.7 return trips a day throughout construction.
  4. As shown in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ there are numerous existing vessel routes through the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA, and the greatest concentration of these is in the coastal waters, close to the coastline (data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). This is also where the greatest numbers of the waterbirds and seabirds occur within the SPA.
  5. Non-breeding red-throated diver within the Outer Firth of Forth and St. Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA have the highest concentrations recorded in coastal areas off St Andrews Bay and the Firth of Tay, with lower numbers in the Firth of Forth between Edinburgh and North Berwick ( Figure 5.3   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.
  6. Non-breeding Slavonian grebes are typically restricted to the coastline of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA, particularly the Firth of Forth bay, as shown in Figure 5.4   Open ▸ (data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024).
  7. Non-breeding eider within the Outer Firth of Forth and St. Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA have the highest concentrations recorded in coastal areas off St Andrews Bay and the Firth of Tay, as well as the Firth of Forth ( Figure 5.5   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.
  8. Non-breeding long-tailed duck within the Outer Firth of Forth and St. Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA have the highest concentrations recorded in coastal areas off the Firth of Tay and the Firth of Forth ( Figure 5.6   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.
  9. Non-breeding common scoter within the Outer Firth of Forth and St. Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA have the highest concentrations recorded off the Forth of Tay and the Firth of Forth, between Kirkcaldy and Kilconquhar, and between Musselburgh and North Berwick ( Figure 5.7   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.
  10. Non-breeding velvet scoter within the Outer Firth of Forth and St. Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA have the highest concentrations recorded off the Forth of Tay, with birds also along the coastline of the Firth of Forth, between Kirkcaldy and Kilconquhar, and between Edinburgh and North Berwick ( Figure 5.8   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.
  11. Non-breeding goldeneye are typically restricted to the coastline of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA, particularly the Firth of Forth bay, as shown in Figure 5.9   Open ▸ (data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024).
  12. Non-breeding red-breasted merganser within the Outer Firth of Forth and St. Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA have the highest concentrations recorded off the Forth of Tay and St Andrews Bay, with birds also along the coastline of the Firth of Forth, between Edinburgh and Kilconquhar, and also  between Edinburgh and North Berwick ( Figure 5.10   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024). As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.

Figure 5.2:
Annual averages of vessel movement throughout Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.2: Annual averages of vessel movement throughout Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.3:
Red-throated diver non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.3: Red-throated diver non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.4:
Slavonian grebe non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.4: Slavonian grebe non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.5:
Eider non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.5: Eider non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.6:
Long-tailed duck non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.6: Long-tailed duck non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.7:
Common scoter non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.7: Common scoter non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.8:
Velvet scoter non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.8: Velvet scoter non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.9:
Goldeneye non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.9: Goldeneye non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.10:
Red-breasted merganser non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.10: Red-breasted merganser non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.11:
Guillemot non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

Figure 5.11: Guillemot non-breeding distribution in Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA

 

  1. The distribution of razorbill is not presented in Marine Scotland (2024). However, it is assumed to have a distribution similar to that of guillemot as a proxy species, as these auks have similar foraging requirements.
  2. Non-breeding guillemot are less associated with the coastline than other species, with concentrations in the mouth of the Forth Estuary and the outer Firth of Forth between North Berwick and Anstruther ( Figure 5.11   Open ▸ , data taken from Marine Scotland, 2024).  As can be seen in Figure 5.2   Open ▸ these areas of highest concentrations overlap with areas of existing high levels of vessel movements.
  3. Due to the existing high levels of vessel traffic, and the apparent habituation or resilience to existing vessel movements shown by the waterbirds and seabirds (due to highest concentrations occurring in areas of high vessel activity), then it can be assumed that the impact of disturbance and displacement resulting from an additional 2.7 return trips per day (on average), adhering to existing shipping routes where possible during the construction phase for the Array alone will be negligible. This is further supported by the JNCC and NatureScot (2022) Conservation and Management Advice, which states that with regards to activities with the potential to affect waterbirds and seabirds, no additional management is required for commercial shipping along established routes.
  4. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is expected to be no AEOI on any feature of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA during the construction phase.

                        Operation and maintenance phase

  1. During the operational and maintenance phase, seabirds may be impacted by a disturbance and/or displacement due to the physical presence of wind turbines, vessel traffic and helicopter activity. Disturbance and/or displacement may have consequent impacts on the survival or fitness of birds. If displacement limits seabird access to foraging areas, it can result in reduced energy intake and reduced foraging success. Displacement effects can also cause increased inter- and intra-specific competition for alternative foraging areas and prey resources. The assessment in the operational phase also incorporates the impact of barrier effects on regularly occurring seabirds, which are considered together as “distributional responses” by NatureScot (2023h) and also in line with JNCC (2022) advice.
  2. The quantification of displacement-induced mortality provides an estimate of the total number of birds subject to mortality. For the purposes of this RIAA, it is necessary to estimate which of those birds may be associated with specific SPAs or Ramsar sites, in order to calculate the impact on the population for which each site is designated. This is done through the process of apportionment. Full details of the apportionment process and the resulting proportion of birds associated with each SPA or Ramsar are given in appendix 3A.
  3. Following NatureScot (2023k), where the apportioned impact is estimated to increase baseline mortality to the population of a SPA or Ramsar by greater than 0.02 percentage points, PVA is subsequently carried out to further investigate the potential effect on the population.
  4. Given this approach, for greater clarity, displacement results (and PVAs, where relevant) are presented by species, rather than by SPA/Ramsar. The conclusions for each SPA/Ramsar are summarised in Table 5.30   Open ▸ , based on the results for each feature being assessed.
                        Kittiwake
  1. The impact of displacement on kittiwake is summarised in Table 5.6   Open ▸ to Table 5.10   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.6:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortality Calculations

Table 5.6: Kittiwake Displacement Mortality Calculations

 

Table 5.7:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.7: Kittiwake Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.8:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.8: Kittiwake Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

Table 5.9:
Kittiwake Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.9: Kittiwake Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.10:
Kittiwake Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.10: Kittiwake Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

  1. The increase in mortality rate does not exceed the 0.02 percentage point threshold advised by NatureScot (2023k) for any site and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no adverse effect to the integrity of the kittiwake feature of any site as a result of displacement impacts from the Array alone. The impact of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered separately, below (section 5.4.5).
                        Guillemot
  1. Following NatureScot’s guidance on apportioning impacts (NatureScot 2023j), guillemot are taken to largely remain in the broad vicinity of their breeding colonies during the non-breeding season, with impacts apportioned to colonies within mean-max + 1SD foraging range. As no breeding colonies are within mean-max + 1SD foraging range from the Array, none of the impacts from The Array would be apportioned to any SPA guillemot colony in either the breeding season or the non-breeding season. All individuals impacted are considered to be non-breeding individuals. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no adverse effect on the integrity of the guillemot feature of any site.
  2. However, the Scottish Ministers advised in Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (MD-LOT, 2023) that, in addition to the NatureScot approach, apportioning is carried out with regards to the guillemot feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA, following the BDMPS approach as requested by Natural England. This assessment is presented in Table 5.11   Open ▸ to Table 5.13   Open ▸ . The approach to apportionment recommended by Natural England is to use the information provided in the Furness (2015), as detailed in appendix 3A.

 

Table 5.11:
Guillemot Displacement Mortality Calculations

Table 5.11: Guillemot Displacement Mortality Calculations

 

Table 5.12:
Guillemot Apportionment Calculations

Table 5.12: Guillemot Apportionment Calculations

 

Table 5.13:
Guillemot Increase in Mortality (Natural England Approach) at Each SPA or Ramsar

Table 5.13: Guillemot Increase in Mortality (Natural England Approach) at Each SPA or Ramsar

 

  1. In order to provide a full assessment for the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (rather than just apportioning as per Natural England’s advice), the increase in baseline mortality has been calculated using Natural England’s preferred method (Parker et al., 2022), and using an adult baseline mortality rate of 6.1% (as per volume 3, appendix 11.1 of the Array EIA Report). Following this approach, the increase in baseline mortality is below the 1% threshold advised by Natural England as requiring further consideration (Parker et al., 2022), and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no adverse effect to the integrity of the guillemot feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array alone.
  2. Note that for the purposes of the in-combination assessment (section 5), the approach to apportionment advised by NatureScot for guillemot (NatureScot, 2023d) has been used to determine whether an in-combination assessment is required, rather than the BDMPS approach, in order to provide a consistent assessment in line with the most relevant advice for Scottish projects.
                        Razorbill
  1. The impact of displacement on razorbill is summarised in Table 5.14   Open ▸ to Table 5.18   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.14:
Razorbill Displacement Mortality Calculations

Table 5.14: Razorbill Displacement Mortality Calculations

 

Table 5.15:
Razorbill Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.15: Razorbill Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.16:
Razorbill Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.16: Razorbill Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

Table 5.17:
Razorbill Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.17: Razorbill Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.18:
Razorbill Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.18: Razorbill Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

  1. The increase in mortality rate exceeds 0.02 percentage points at Fowlsheugh SPA and therefore PVA has been undertaken to further assess the impacts on the population at that site.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.19   Open ▸ , with further details presented in the appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.19:
Razorbill PVA Results for Displacement Impacts from the Array Alone

Table 5.19: Razorbill PVA Results for Displacement Impacts from the Array Alone

 

  1. The PVA results for both sites show that the population growth rate is 0.1% to 0.2% lower than the counterfactual, leading to a population size that, after 35 years, is 1.2% to 6.2% smaller than the counterfactual population size at Fowlsheugh SPA.
  2. The PVA model predicts significant population declines from the current population of 18,844 individuals (Burnell et al., 2023) even under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. This is contrary to the trend observed at Fowlsheugh SPA, which has grown consistently from its citation population of 5,800 individuals, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3% between 1999 and 2018 (JNCC, 2021). It is routinely advised that the Counterfactual of Growth Rate (CGR) and Counterfactual of Population Size (CPS) metrics are more useful than the absolute predicted population size, as the absolute predicted population size is sensitive to the demographic rates used as model inputs, and also because the PVA is advised to be run without density dependence (Searle et al., 2019; NatureScot, 2023k; Parker et al., 2022).
  3. Taking that into account, it appears unlikely that even the upper end of impacts modelled using NatureScot advocated rates would be sufficient to cause a decline in the population or significantly prevent future growth, and therefore will not adversely affect the conservation objectives of the site. It should further be noted that the upper end of impacts modelled is considered unduly precautionary (see section 5.2.2), and under the Applicant’s preferred evidence-led approach, the impact is not of a level that could be said to have any discernible impact on the population.
  4. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the razorbill feature of any SPA as a result of the Array alone.
                        Puffin
  1. The impact of displacement on puffin is summarised in Table 5.20   Open ▸ to Table 5.24   Open ▸ . Note that the effect of distributional responses on puffin during the non-breeding season are not included. Puffin are known to disperse rapidly and widely post-breeding to areas outside of UK waters and are therefore considered to be unlikely to be affected by the presence of the Array outside the breeding season.

 

Table 5.20:
Puffin Displacement Mortality Calculations

Table 5.20: Puffin Displacement Mortality Calculations

 

Table 5.21:
Puffin Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.21: Puffin Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.22:
Puffin Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.22: Puffin Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

Table 5.23:
Puffin Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.23: Puffin Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.24:
Puffin Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.24: Puffin Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

  1. The increase in mortality rate does not exceed the 0.02 percentage point threshold advised by NatureScot (2023k) for any site and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the puffin feature of any SPA as a result of displacement from the Array alone.
                        Gannet
  1. The impact of displacement on gannet is summarised in Table 5.25   Open ▸ to Table 5.29   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.25:
Gannet Displacement Mortality Calculations

Table 5.25: Gannet Displacement Mortality Calculations

 

Table 5.26:
Gannet Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.26: Gannet Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.27:
Gannet Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.27: Gannet Displacement Mortality Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

Table 5.28:
Gannet Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

Table 5.28: Gannet Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (SNCB Approach)

 

Table 5.29:
Gannet Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

Table 5.29: Gannet Increase in Mortality at Each SPA or Ramsar (Applicant’s Approach)

 

  1. The increase in mortality rate does not exceed the 0.02 percentage point threshold advised by NatureScot (2023k) for any site and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of any site as a result of displacement impacts from the Array alone. The impact of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered separately, below (section 5.4.5).
                        Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA
  1. The location of ports for the operation and maintenance of the Array has not been determined prior to application. However, the use of a port or ports that are which will be located within the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA cannot be ruled out. Therefore, as a worst-case scenario the MDS assumes that all vessel movements required for all phases of the project will pass through the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA. This equates to up to up to 508 return vessel trips per year during operation and maintenance.
  2. During operation and maintenance there will be 508 return vessel trips per year, which averages out at 1.4 return vessel trips per day.
  3. As shown in Figure 5.1 there are numerous existing vessel routes through the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA, and the greatest concentration of these is in the coastal waters, close to the coastline. This is also where the greatest numbers of the waterbirds and seabirds occur within the SPA (as set out in the construction section above, and shown in Figures 5.2 to 5.10).
  4. Due to the existing high levels of vessel traffic, and the apparent habituation shown by the waterbirds and seabirds (due to highest concentrations occurring in areas of high vessel activity),  it can be concluded that the impact of disturbance and displacement resulting from an additional 1.4 return trips (on average), adhering to existing shipping routes where possible during the operation and maintenance phase for the Array alone will be negligible. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no Adverse Effect on Integrity on any feature of the Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrews Bay Complex SPA during the operation and maintenance phase.

                        Decommissioning phase

  1. The MDS for the decommissioning phase is assumed to be equal to or lower than the construction phase ( Table 5.4   Open ▸ ). As such, the assessment of the impacts is the same and is not repeated here. Therefore, as concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, in the construction phase, the impact of disturbance and displacement in the decommissioning phase will be negligible, with any effect experienced not expected to cause an AEOI on any feature of any SPA.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that no adverse effects on the qualifying interest features which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.30   Open ▸ , will occur as a result of disturbance and displacement impacts during the construction, operation, maintenance, and/or decommissioning phases for the Array. An assessment of the impact of disturbance and displacement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.30   Open ▸ . Where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.30:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Disturbance and Displacement during Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning

Table 5.30: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Disturbance and Displacement during Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning

 

  1. As detailed in Table 5.30   Open ▸ , it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an adverse effect on the integrity of any of the SPAs listed in Table 5.30   Open ▸ or their qualifying features due to disturbance and displacement resulting from the construction, operation, maintenance, and/or decommissioning of the Array alone. There is no risk of undermining the Conservation Objectives of the sites considered due to the following:
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array during all phases to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA;
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array during all phases to influence the distribution of birds within the SPA;
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array during all phases to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species;
  • given the level of impact arising from disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array during all phases to influence the population of the species as a viable component of the site; and
  • given the level of impact arising from disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array during all phases to influence the disturbance of the species within the SPA

5.4.2.    Changes to Prey Availability

5.4.2. Changes to Prey Availability

  1. The LSE2 assessment during the HRA screening process identified that during construction and decommissioning phases, LSE2 could not be ruled out for changes to prey availability. This relates to the following European sites and relevant marine ornithological features:
  • Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • Copinsay SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • Coquet Island SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin).

  • East Caithness Cliffs SPA

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Fair Isle SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding gannet).

  • Farne Islands SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin and breeding kittiwake).

  • Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

-        gannet (breeding);

-        guillemot (breeding);

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

 

  • Forth Islands SPA

-        gannet (breeding);

-        puffin (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and breeding kittiwake).

  • Fowlsheugh SPA

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and breeding razorbill).

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • North Caithness Cliffs SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        seabird assemblage (breeding).

  • Noss SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • St Kilda SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  1. The MDS considered within the assessment of changes to prey availability is shown in Table 5.31   Open ▸ .

Table 5.31:
MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Changes to Prey Availability during the Construction and Decommissioning Phases

Table 5.31: MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Changes to Prey Availability during the Construction and Decommissioning Phases

 

Table 5.32:
Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Changes to Prey Availability during the Construction and Decommissioning Phases

Table 5.32: Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Changes to Prey Availability during the Construction and Decommissioning Phases

 

                        Construction phase

  1. Underwater sound produced during construction activities and UXO clearance may impact upon the availability of prey items, for example by causing fish and mobile invertebrates to avoid the Array during construction and decommissioning. Underwater sound may also affect the physiology and behaviour of fish and mobile invertebrates. The reduction or disruption of prey availability due to underwater sound may cause reduced energy intake affecting productivity or survival of offshore ornithology receptors.
  2. A number of potential impacts on benthic subtidal ecology (including benthic invertebrates) associated with the Array were identified in the Array EIA Report, volume 2, chapter 8, including disturbance during construction. The assessment identified an effect of minor adverse significance as a result of disturbance during construction, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  3. With regards to fish and shellfish prey, the Array EIA Report volume 2, chapter 9 considered the potential impacts of disturbance during construction on marine species (including shellfish), sandeel Hyperoplus lanceolatus, herring Clupea harengus and diadromous fish. The assessment identified an effect of minor adverse significance on all fish and shellfish receptors as a result of disturbance during construction, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  4. In the absence of any environmentally significant impact on prey species, it can be concluded that there will be no discernible effect on any seabird species as a result of this impact. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to any of the features of any SPA considered for this impact during the construction phase.  

                        Decommissioning phase

  1. Underwater sound produced during decommissioning activities may impact upon the availability of prey items, for example by causing fish and mobile invertebrates to avoid the Array during construction and decommissioning. Underwater sound may also affect the physiology and behaviour of fish and mobile invertebrates. The reduction or disruption of prey availability due to underwater sound may cause reduced energy intake affecting productivity or survival of offshore ornithology receptors.
  2. The MDS in the decommissioning phase states that any impacts will be similar or less than the impacts in the construction phase. Therefore, as concluded for the construction phase, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to any of the features of any SPA considered for this impact during the decommissioning phase. 

                        Conclusion

  1. Adverse effects which undermine the conservation objectives of the qualifying seabird features of the SPAs will not occur as a result of changes to prey availability during construction and/or decommissioning activities. Potential effects from this activity on the relevant conservation objectives are discussed in turn below in Table 5.33   Open ▸ .
Table 5.33:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Changes to Prey Availability during the Construction and Decommissioning Phases

Table 5.33: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Changes to Prey Availability during the Construction and Decommissioning Phases

  1. It can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an adverse effect on the integrity of the SPAs and their qualifying features as a result of changes to prey availability with respect to the construction and/or decommissioning of the Array alone.

5.4.3.    Artificial light

5.4.3. Artificial light

  1. The HRA Screening identified St Kilda SPA and the qualifying feature of Manx shearwater (as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage) to have a potential LSE2 from light. The MDS considered within the assessment of light is shown in Table 5.34   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.34:
MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features with Respect to Light during the Construction, Decommissioning and Operation Phases

Table 5.34: MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features with Respect to Light during the Construction, Decommissioning and Operation Phases

                        Construction phase

  1. Lighting on construction vessels can lead to seabird grounding due to disorientation and in-turn can lead to artificial light-influenced mortality. Once grounded they are vulnerable to threats of automobile collisions, physical injury, predation, dehydration, hypothermia, and starvation, and are often unable to take flight again depending on location and weather (Ainley et al., 2001; Baccetti et al., 2005; Deppe et al., 2017; Rodríguez et al., 2014; Smith et al., 2002). In addition to disorientation, vessel lighting can cause collision with the vessel (i.e. deck strikes) (Fischer et al. 2021).
                        Manx shearwater
  1. Appropriate marking, lighting and aids to navigation will be employed during the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases, as appropriate to ensure the safety of all parties. Lighting of construction sites, vessels and other structures at night may potentially be a source of attraction as opposed to displacement, for birds; however, the areas affected would be very small. Phototaxis of nocturnal migrating birds can problematic, although this is generally seen where birds are exposed to intense white lighting such as from lighthouses (MacArthur Green, 2018). Light from offshore wind farms construction sites is typically less powerful than that from lighthouses and, therefore, it is unlikely to cause the same issue and have negligible impact to populations (MacArthur Green, 2018). Due to the limited period over which construction activities take place, any impact from artificial lighting will be negligible and short-lived.

                        Operation and maintenance phase

  1. In addition to the impacts of the presence of vessels and artificial light, in the context of infrastructure, the presence of light can cause collision with turbine blades due to disorientation. Once disorientated a bird may experience prolonged flight with the potential to cause a bird to pass through the rotor swept area many times, resulting in an increase in collision risk.
  2. Deakin et al. (2022) discusses the risks to shearwaters from lighting attraction and disorientation and identifies that such effects come with fatal consequences. However, the examples provided discuss light sources (e.g. bonfires, cities and gas flares from hydrocarbon platforms) that are unlikely to be comparable to lighting associated with the offshore infrastructure and represent a much larger mortality risk either through direct (gas flares or hunting) or indirect (collision with large high-rise buildings) causes. Despite Deakin et al. (2022) being focussed on potential impacts on these specie groups as a result of offshore wind developments, no information is provided on the likely characteristics of light from offshore wind developments.
                        Manx shearwater
  1. Whilst Deakin et al. (2022) reported that Manx shearwater have been known to show phototaxis and disorientation in relation to artificial light sources and therefore there is a potential risk, Deakin et al. only considered artificial light relatively briefly among other potential impacts. A review by MacArthur Green (2018) focused much more closely on the potential of artificial lighting to impact seabirds. In the review by MacArthur Green (2018), it was found that lighting on wind turbines is in orders of magnitude lower than light intensities produced by ports, towns, lighthouses, oil and gas platforms or ships. Therefore, phototaxis effects on Manx shearwaters, including the qualifying features of the St Kilda SPA, are highly unlikely to occur. MacArthur Green (2018) found that phototaxis of seabirds only occurs over short distances (hundreds of metres) in response to bright white light close to colonies of these species. It is not seen over large distances or with the moderate light levels used in obstruction or navigation lighting. In addition, no evidence was found to suggest that obstruction or navigation lights affect ability of marine birds to feed at night, or attract marine prey animals to aggregate, or that they could affect predation risk for nocturnal migrant birds. There might be a slight reduction in collision risk for birds where wind turbines are illuminated, but the evidence suggests that any such effect is likely to be very small. There is no evidence to suggest that obstruction or navigation lights cause displacement of marine birds due to avoidance of light. It was therefore concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that the evidence indicates that obstruction or navigation lights on wind turbines will have no significant effects on marine birds or on migrant terrestrial birds passing nearby.

                        Decommissioning phase

  1. The MDS for the decommissioning phase is assumed to be equal to the construction phase ( Table 5.34   Open ▸ ). As such, the assessment of the impacts is the same and is not repeated here.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that no adverse effects on the qualifying interest features which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.35   Open ▸ , will occur as a result of artificial light impacts during the construction, operation, maintenance, and/or decommissioning phases for the Array. An assessment of the impact of artificial light against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.35   Open ▸ . Where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.
Table 5.35:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Artificial Light from Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning

Table 5.35: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Artificial Light from Construction, Operation and Maintenance, and Decommissioning

 

  1. As detailed in Table 5.35   Open ▸ , it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an adverse effect on the integrity of any of the SPAs listed in Table 5.35   Open ▸ or their qualifying features due to artificial light resulting from the construction, operation, maintenance, and/or decommissioning of the Array alone. There is no risk of undermining the Conservation Objectives of the sites considered due to the following:
  • Given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the supporting habitats and processes relevant to qualifying features within the SPA;
  • Given the level of impact arising from artificial light from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the populations of qualifying features are viable component of the site; and
  • Given the level of impact arising from artificial light from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the distributions of the qualifying features throughout the SPA.
  • Given the level of impact arising from artificial light from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the condition of the qualifying features throughout the SPA or the achievement of Favourable Conservation Status.

5.4.4.    Collision Risk

5.4.4. Collision Risk

  1. The LSE2 assessment during the HRA screening process identified that during the operation and maintenance phase, LSE2 could not be ruled out for collision risk. An appropriate assessment is required for the following European sites and relevant marine ornithological features:

                        Seabirds

  • Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • Copinsay SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • East Caithness Cliffs SPA

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Fair Isle SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding gannet).

  • Farne Islands SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

-        gannet (breeding);

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Forth Islands SPA

-        gannet (breeding);

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and breeding kittiwake).

 

  • Fowlsheugh SPA

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • North Caithness Cliffs SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Noss SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding kittiwake).

  • St Kilda SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA

-        kittiwake (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

                        Migratory waterbirds

  • Cameron Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site
  • pink-footed goose (non-breeding).–Din Moss - Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        greylag goose (non-breeding).

  • Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Firth of Forth SPA and Ramsar site

-        bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding);

-        golden plover (non-breeding);

-        knot (non-breeding);

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        red-throated diver (non-breeding);

-        redshank (non-breeding);

-        ringed plover (non-breeding);

-        sandwich tern (non-b1lavonian

-        slavonian grebe (non-breeding);

-        turnstone (non-breeding) and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species (except Sandwich tern) and common scoter, cormorant, curlew, dunlin, eider, goldeneye, great crested grebe, grey plover, lapwing, long-tailed duck, mallard, oystercatcher, red-breasted merganser, ringed plover, scaup, shelduck, velvet scoter and wigeon).

  • Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA and Ramsar site

-        bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding);

-        non-breeding greylag goose;

-        non-breeding pink-footed goose;

-        non-breeding redshank; and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and common scoter, cormorant, dunlin, eider, goldeneye, goosander, grey plover, Icelandic black-tailed godwit, oystercatcher, long-tailed duck, red-breasted merganser, sanderling, shelduck and velvet scoter).

  • Gladhouse Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Greenlaw Moor SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Holburn Lake and Moss SPA and Ramsar site

-        greylag goose (non-breeding).

  • Lindisfarne SPA and Ramsar site

-        bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding);

-        common scoter (non-breeding);

-        dunlin (non-breeding);

-        eider (non-breeding);

-        golden plover (non-breeding);

-        grey plover(non-breeding);

-        greylag goose (non-breeding);

-        light-bellied brent goose (non-breeding);

-        long-tailed duck (non-breeding);

-        red-breasted merganser (non-breeding);

-        redshank (non-breeding);

-        ringed plover (non-breeding);

-        sanderling (non-breeding);

-        shelduck (non-breeding);

-        whooper swan (non-breeding);

-        wigeon (non-breeding); and

-        waterbird assemblage (non-breeding).

  • Loch of Kinnordy SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        greylag goose (non-breeding).

  • Loch Leven SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        shoveler (non-breeding);

-        whooper swan (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and cormorant, gadwall, goldeneye, pochard, teal and tufted duck).

  • Montrose Basin SPA and Ramsar site

-        greylag goose (non-breeding);

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        redshank (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and oystercatcher, eider, wigeon, knot, dunlin and shelduck).

  • Northumbria Coast SPA and Ramsar site

-        purple sandpiper (non-breeding); and

-        turnstone (non-breeding).

  • Slamannan Platea SPA

-        taiga bean goose (non-breeding).

  • South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        greylag goose (non-breeding);

-        wigeon (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Westwater SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA / Ythan Estuary and Meikle Loch Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and eider, lapwing and redshank).

  1. The MDS considered within the assessment of collision risk is shown in Table 5.36   Open ▸ It should be noted that the MDS has been updated following mitigation measures undertaken, as detailed in Table 5.37   Open ▸ .

Table 5.36:
MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Collision Risk during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.36: MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Collision Risk during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

Table 5.37:
Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Collision Risk during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.37: Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Collision Risk during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

                        Operation and maintenance phase

  1. Operational wind turbines and associated infrastructure present a collision risk for seabirds flying within the array. This includes birds commuting between breeding and foraging sites, migrating birds, and those foraging for food within the array. Direct collision with infrastructure may result in injury or death, however, it is assumed that all collisions with operational wind turbines result in mortality.
  2. CRM for regularly occurring species was undertaken using the Stochastic Collision Risk Model (sCRM) developed by Marine Scotland (McGregor et al., 2018). The User Guide for the sCRM Shiny App provided by Marine Scotland (Donovan, 2017) has been followed for the modelling of collision impacts predicted for the Array. The full methodology is provided in volume 3, appendix 11.2 of the Array EIA Report.
  3. Input densities for CRM were based on MRSea modelling where available, with design-based estimates used for instances in which MRSea estimates were unavailable (volume 3, appendix 11.2 of the Array EIA Report).
  4. For all regularly occurring species, the assessment has been carried out on the basis of the input parameters recommended by NatureScot (2023g). However, it should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty around several of the key input parameters, including flight speed and avoidance rates. Therefore, in addition to the assessment value, a range of other input parameters has also been considered, as detailed in volume 3, appendix 11.2 of the Array EIA Report. The minimum and maximum collision estimates from this range are also presented. Further discussion of the range considered is provided in volume 3, appendix 11.2 and volume 2, chapter 11 of the Array EIA Report.
  5. It is acknowledged that migratory passage movements may not be adequately captured by traditional survey methods. Therefore, the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) SOSSMAT was used to assess the population size of migratory bird species designated as features of the UK SPA network that may cross the Array; instructions are given in Wright et al. (2012). Further details are provided in volume 3, appendix 11.2, annex B of the Array EIA Report.
  6. The quantification of collision mortality provides an estimate of the total number of birds subject to mortality. For the purposes of this RIAA, it is necessary to estimate which of those birds may be associated with specific SPAs or Ramsar sites, in order to calculate the impact on the population for which each site is designated. This is done through the process of apportionment. Full details of the apportionment process and the resulting proportion of birds associated with each SPA or Ramsar are given in volume 3, appendix 11.4 of the Array EIA Report.
  7. Where the apportioned impact is estimated to increase baseline mortality to the population of a SPA or Ramsar by greater than 0.02 percentage points, PVA is subsequently carried out to further investigate the potential effect on the population. Details of the PVA methodology are presented in appendix 3B. For greater clarity, collision results (and PVAs, where relevant) are presented by species, rather than by SPA/Ramsar.
  8. The conclusions for each SPA/Ramsar are summarised in Table 5.46   Open ▸ , based on the results for each feature being assessed.
                        Kittiwake
  1. The impact of collision on kittiwake is summarised in Table 5.38   Open ▸ to Table 5.40   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.38:
Kittiwake Seasonal Collision Mortality (Total)

Table 5.38: Kittiwake Seasonal Collision Mortality (Total)

 

Table 5.39:
Kittiwake Collision Mortality (Individuals) Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar – SNCB Approach (Range in Parenthesis)

Table 5.39: Kittiwake Collision Mortality (Individuals) Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar – SNCB Approach (Range in Parenthesis)

 

Table 5.40:
Kittiwake Increase in Annual Mortality (Individuals) at Each SPA or Ramsar

Table 5.40: Kittiwake Increase in Annual Mortality (Individuals) at Each SPA or Ramsar

 

  1. The increase in mortality rate does not exceed the 0.02 percentage point threshold advised by NatureScot (2023k) for any site and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no adverse effect to the integrity of the kittiwake feature of any site as a result of collision impacts from the Array alone. The impact of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered separately, below (section 5.4.5).
                        Gannet
  1. The impact of collision on gannet is summarised in Table 5.41   Open ▸ to Table 5.43   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.41:
Gannet Seasonal Collision Mortality (Total)

Table 5.41: Gannet Seasonal Collision Mortality (Total)

 

Table 5.42:
Gannet Collision Mortality (Individuals) Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar – SNCB Approach (Range in Parenthesis)

Table 5.42: Gannet Collision Mortality (Individuals) Apportioned to Each SPA or Ramsar – SNCB Approach (Range in Parenthesis)

 

Table 5.43:
Gannet Increase in Annual Mortality (Individuals) at Each SPA or Ramsar

Table 5.43: Gannet Increase in Annual Mortality (Individuals) at Each SPA or Ramsar

 

  1. The increase in mortality rate does not exceed the 0.02 percentage point threshold advised by NatureScot (2023k) for any site and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no adverse effect to the integrity of the gannet feature of any site as a result of collision impacts from the Array alone. The impact of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered separately, below (section 5.4.5).
                        Migratory birds
  1. It is recognised that migratory birds may not be adequately characterised by the site-specific DAS carried out at the Array. Migratory birds may fly at night (when no DAS are carried out) or in pulse movements which could easily be missed by DAS, as they are conducted on a monthly basis. Therefore, the risk to migratory birds cannot be assessed using the same methodology as has been applied for regularly occurring seabirds (above). Instead, the potential impact on migratory birds has been assessed using a qualitative approach drawing on available resources (principally Woodward et al., 2023), as well as a quantitative approach, using the SOSSMAT (Wright et al., 2012).
  2. Woodward et al. (2023) provide a review of available information regarding to migratory birds in Scottish waters and the potential for collision risk. Key information compiled includes population estimates, migratory routes, timing of migration, migratory flight heights, migratory flight speeds, and migratory avoidance rates and behaviour. Woodward et al. (2023) compile this information for 69 species or sub-species, which are non-seabird features of relevant SPA including swans, geese, ducks, waders, raptors and other non-passerines. A summary of the key information for each species considered is given in Table 5.44   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.44:
Assessment of Collision Risk to Migratory Species Based on Woodward et al. (2023)

Table 5.44: Assessment of Collision Risk to Migratory Species Based on Woodward et al. (2023)

  1. In addition, a quantitative assessment of collision risk to migratory birds has been carried out using SOSSMAT (Wright et al. 2012). The Applicant is aware that a new quantitative mCRM is under development, but this model is currently undergoing testing and seeking approval, and therefore not yet ready to be used for assessment (mCRM Authors, 2021) at the time of writing this chapter (April, 2024). The SOSSMAT therefore represents the best available tool currently available to provide quantitative estimates of the collision risk to migratory birds. Full details are presented in volume 3, appendix 11.2, annex B of the Array EIA Report. The results are presented in Table 5.45   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.45:
Estimates of Collision Risk to Migratory Waterbirds

Table 5.45: Estimates of Collision Risk to Migratory Waterbirds

 

  1. The number of birds expected to be subject to collision mortality on migration is small, being zero or one bird annually for most species, and a maximum of three for pink-footed goose and eider, and well below a 0.02 percentage point increase in mortality rate. These numbers are the total number of collisions expected for the entire UK population. Therefore, the number of birds which are considered to be individuals associated with individual SPAs is expected to be negligible for all species, and not at a level that could be considered to have any potential of contributing materially to an AEOI for any of the species listed or the sites for which they are features.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that no adverse effects on the qualifying interest features which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.46   Open ▸ , will occur as a result of collision risk impacts during the operation and maintenance phase for the Array. An assessment of the impact of collision risk against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.46   Open ▸ . Where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.46:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs and their Qualifying Features from Collision during Operation and Maintenance

Table 5.46: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs and their Qualifying Features from Collision during Operation and Maintenance

  1. As detailed in Table 5.46   Open ▸ ,  it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an adverse effect on the integrity of any of the SPAs listed in Table 5.46   Open ▸ or their qualifying features due to collision risk resulting from the operation and maintenance of the Array alone. There is no risk of undermining the Conservation Objectives of the sites considered due to the following:
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of supporting habitats and process within the SPA;
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the distribution of birds within the SPA;
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species;
  • given the level of impact arising from collision from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the population of the species as a viable component of the site; and
  • given the level of impact arising from collision from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the disturbance of the species within the SPA.

5.4.5.    Displacement and Collision Combined

5.4.5. Displacement and Collision Combined

  1. Certain seabird species may be impacted by both displacement and barrier effects (distributional responses) and collision risk and therefore an assessment of the impact of both pressures acting together is required. It is recognised that assessing these two potential impacts together could amount to double counting, as birds that are subject to distributional response could not be subject to potential collision risk as they are already assumed to have not entered the Array. Equally, birds estimated to be subject to collision risk mortality would not be subjected to mortality associated with displacement and barrier effects (distributional responses) as well. The results presented in this section are therefore considered highly precautionary, especially for species with high displacement and barrier effects (distributional response) rates (i.e. gannet). Specifically related to gannet, a recent Natural England report (Natural England, 2023) had the aim of delivering an evidence-based method to ensure macro-avoidance behaviour is appropriately accounted for in collision risk models of gannet at offshore wind farms. Macro-avoidance is defined as ‘the fraction of birds in flight that are unlikely to enter the wind turbine array following construction, where there is a risk of collision with rotating blades’. The report recommended a correction to be applied in project level CRM to account for this. The CRM undertaken for the Array has not applied macro avoidance following the current published NatureScot guidance (NatureScot, 2023g) (it is noted that updates to this guidance note is imminent. Updates to the note may recommend factoring in macro-avoidance. However as updates to the note are not yet known, collision risk modelling has been undertaken as set out in their current guidance) and therefore the results are viewed as precautionary (and likely to include some ‘double counting’).
  2. Of the seabird species considered in this RIAA, the species that have been identified as requiring assessment for both displacement and collision effects are kittiwake and gannet. As a potential LSE2 for collision risk was only identified in the Operation and Maintenance phase, only the Operation and Maintenance phase is considered within this combined assessment. The apportioned annual mortality rates for distributional responses and collision are extracted from the relevant supporting information within sections 5.4.1 and 5.4.4, respectively.
                        Kittiwake
  1. For kittiwake, the Applicant’s preferred displacement and mortality rates equal the lower end of the range suggested by NatureScot (2023h), i.e. 30% displacement and 1% mortality. Of the range of collision modelling parameters considered, the upper end is equal to the parameters advised by NatureScot (2023g). Therefore, for this combined assessment a “low” ( Table 5.47   Open ▸ ), “medium” ( Table 5.48   Open ▸ ) and “high” ( Table 5.49   Open ▸ ) value has been presented. The “low” value combines the lowest values for both displacement and collision; the “medium” consists of the Applicant’s preferred displacement and mortality rates and the NatureScot’s approach to CRM; the “high” approach is the upper end of NatureScot’s advised displacement and mortality rates and NatureScot’s preferred CRM parameters.

 

Table 5.47:
Kittiwake Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Low Approach)

Table 5.47: Kittiwake Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Low Approach)

 

Table 5.48:
Kittiwake Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Medium Approach)

Table 5.48: Kittiwake Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Medium Approach)

 

Table 5.49:
Kittiwake Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (High Approach)

Table 5.49: Kittiwake Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (High Approach)

 

  1. These results indicate that at the “high” approach, PVA is required to further assess the impacts on the kittiwake feature of Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA, Farne Islands SPA, Forth Islands SPA, Fowlsheugh SPA and St Abb's Head to Fast Castle SPA. PVA is also required for Fowlsheugh SPA under the “medium” approach. Under all other approaches, the increase in mortality rate is below 0.02 percentage points and therefore there is no potential for an AEOI.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.50   Open ▸ , with further details presented in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.50:
Kittiwake PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts from the Array Alone

Table 5.50: Kittiwake PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts from the Array Alone

 

  1. The PVA results for all sites show that the population growth rate is less than 0.1% lower than the counterfactual, leading to a population size that, after 35 years, is 1.2% smaller than the counterfactual population size at Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA, 0.9% smaller than the counterfactual population size at Farne Islands SPA, 0.9% smaller than the counterfactual population size at Forth Islands SPA, a maximum of 1.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size at Fowlsheugh SPA and 1.1% smaller than the counterfactual population size at St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA. Overall, therefore, it is clear that the PVA results indicate that the impact levels modelled are indistinguishable from natural variation and would not adversely affect the kittiwake feature of Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA, Farne Islands SPA, Forth Islands SPA, Fowlsheugh SPA or St Abb's Head to Fast Castle SPA. It should be further noted that this is the most precautionary approach to assessment – under the Applicant’s preferred approach or the lower end of the range of mortality rates recommended by NatureScot, the impact did not reach the threshold for running PVA.
  2. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the kittiwake feature of any SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array alone.
                        Gannet
  1. For gannet, the Applicant’s preferred displacement and mortality rates equal the lower end of the range suggested by NatureScot (2023h), i.e. 70% displacement and 1% mortality. Therefore, for this combined assessment a “low”, “medium” and “high” value has been presented. The “low” value combines the lowest values for both displacement and collision; the “medium” consists of the Applicant’s preferred displacement and mortality rates and the NatureScot’s approach to CRM; the “high” approach is the upper end of NatureScot’s advised displacement and mortality rates and the upper end of the range of CRM results. The combined impact of displacement and collision for gannet is presented in Table 5.51   Open ▸ to Table 5.53   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.51:
Gannet Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Low approach)

Table 5.51: Gannet Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Low approach)

 

Table 5.52:
Gannet Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Medium Approach)

Table 5.52: Gannet Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (Medium Approach)

 

Table 5.53:
Gannet Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (High Approach)

Table 5.53: Gannet Combined Impact from Distributional Responses and Collision Risk (High Approach)

 

  1. These results indicate that at the “high” approach, PVA is required to further assess the impacts on the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.54   Open ▸ , with further details presented in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.54:
Gannet PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts from the Array Alone

Table 5.54: Gannet PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts from the Array Alone

 

  1. The PVA for the Forth Islands SPA results show that, under the “high” approach, the population growth rate is less than 0.1% lower than the counterfactual, leading to a population size that, after 35 years, is 1.6% smaller than the counterfactual population size. Overall, therefore, it is clear that the PVA results indicate that the impact levels modelled are negligible and would not adversely affect the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA. It should be further noted that this is the most precautionary approach to assessment – under the Applicant’s preferred approach or the lower end of the range of mortality rates recommended by NatureScot, the impact did not reach the threshold for running PVA.
  2. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of any SPA as a result of displacement from the Array alone.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that no adverse effects on the qualifying interest features which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.55   Open ▸ , will occur as a result of combined collision and displacement impacts during the operation and maintenance phase for the Array. An assessment of the impact of combined collision and displacement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.55   Open ▸ . Where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.55:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Distributional Responses and Collision during Operation and Maintenance

Table 5.55:  Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of the Qualifying Features from Distributional Responses and Collision during Operation and Maintenance

 

  1. As detailed in Table 5.55   Open ▸ , it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an adverse effect on the integrity of any of the SPAs listed in Table 5.55   Open ▸ or their qualifying features due to combined collision and disturbance and displacement resulting from the operation and maintenance of the Array alone. There is no risk of undermining the Conservation Objectives of the sites considered due to the following:
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of supporting habitats and process within the SPA;
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the distribution of birds within the SPA;
  • given the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species;
  • given the level of impact arising from combined collision and disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the population of the species as a viable component of the site; and
  • given the level of impact arising from combined collision and disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the disturbance of the species within the SPA.

5.4.6.    Barrier to Movement

5.4.6. Barrier to Movement

  1. As previously stated within section 5.4.1, the current guidance from NatureScot (2023h) recommends treating both displacement and barrier effects together as “distributional responses” and, for breeding seabirds, recommends assessing these distributional responses together. For breeding seabirds, the approach to “disturbance and displacement” assessment covers both disturbance and barrier effects, whilst the assessment of “barrier to movement” only considers the barrier effect to migratory birds. Therefore, only migratory waterbirds are discussed and assessed separately within this section.
  2. The LSE2 assessment during the HRA screening process identified that during operation and maintenance phases, LSE2 could not be ruled out for barrier to movement. This relates to the following site(s) and relevant marine ornithological features:
  • Cameron Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Din Moss – Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        greylag goose (non-breeding).

  • Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Firth of Forth SPA and Ramsar site

-        bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding);

-        golden plover (non-breeding);

-        knot (non-breeding);

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        red-throated diver (non-breeding);

-        redshank (non-breeding);

-        ringed plover (non-breeding);

-        sandwich tern (non-breeding);

-        1lavonian grebe (non-breeding)

-        turnstone (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species (except Sandwich tern) and common scoter, cormorant, curlew, dunlin, eider, goldeneye, great crested grebe, grey plover, lapwing, long-tailed duck, mallard, oystercatcher, red-breasted merganser, ringed plover, scaup, shelduck, velvet scoter and wigeon).

  • Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA and Ramsar site

-        bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding);

-        non-breeding greylag goose;

-        non-breeding pink-footed goose;

-        non-breeding redshank; and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and common scoter, cormorant, dunlin, eider, goldeneye, goosander, grey plover, Icelandic black-tailed godwit, oystercatcher, long-tailed duck, red-breasted merganser, sanderling, shelduck and velvet scoter).

  • Gladhouse Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Greenlaw Moor SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding).

  • Holburn Lake and Moss SPA and Ramsar site

-        greylag goose (non-breeding).

  • Lindisfarne SPA and Ramsar site

-        bar-tailed godwit (non-breeding);

-        common scoter (non-breeding);

-        dunlin (non-breeding);

-        eider (non-breeding);

-        golden plover (non-breeding);

-        grey plover(non-breeding);

-        greylag goose (non-breeding);

-        light-bellied brent goose (non-breeding);

-        long-tailed duck (non-breeding);

-        red-breasted merganser (non-breeding);

-        redshank (non-breeding);

-        ringed plover (non-breeding);

-        sanderling (non-breeding);

-        shelduck (non-breeding);

-        whooper swan (non-breeding);

-        wigeon (non-breeding); and

-        waterbird assemblage (non-breeding).

  • Loch of Kinnordy SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        greylag goose (non-breeding).

  • Loch Leven SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        shoveler (non-breeding);

-        whooper swan (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and cormorant, gadwall, goldeneye, pochard, teal and tufted duck).

  • Montrose Basin SPA and Ramsar site

-        greylag goose (non-breeding);

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        redshank (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and oystercatcher, eider, wigeon, knot, dunlin and shelduck).

  • Northumbria Coast SPA and Ramsar site

-        purple sandpiper (non-breeding); and

-        turnstone (non-breeding).

  • Slamannan Platea SPA

-        taiga bean goose (non-breeding).

  • South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding);

-        greylag goose (non-breeding);

-        wigeon (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Westwater SPA and Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA / Ythan Estuary and Meikle Loch Ramsar site

-        pink-footed goose (non-breeding); and

-        non-breeding waterbird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species and eider, lapwing and redshank).

 

  1. The MDS considered within the assessment of barrier to movement is shown in Table 5.56   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.56:
MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Barrier to Movement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.56: MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Barrier to Movement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

                        Operation and maintenance phase

  1. JNCC et al. (2022) defines barrier effects as “A barrier is a physical factor that limits the migration, or free movement of individuals or populations, thus requiring them to divert from their intended path in order to reach their original destination. This effect is expected to increase the energy expenditure of birds if they have to fly around the area in question in order to reach their goal”. It is typically considered to affect birds in flight only, either whilst they are on migration between breeding and wintering areas (for example) or between a breeding colony and a foraging area. The latter of these scenarios may impose an additional energetic cost to movements at a key period in the annual cycle when seabirds are making daily commutes between foraging grounds at sea and breeding sites. Additional energetic costs could have long term implications for individuals, impacting bird fitness (breeding productivity and survival) and for populations. Barrier effects are considered to be less impactful when affecting migratory flights as avoidance of a single wind farm may be trivial relative to the total length and cost of the journey (Masden et al., 2010; 2012).
  2. For breeding seabirds, NatureScot (2023h) consider barrier effects alongside displacement as “distributional responses”. This is because it can be difficult to distinguish barrier effects from the effects of displacement, for breeding seabirds foraging in the region. NatureScot (2023h) advise that distributional responses are assessed using the matrix approach, and therefore for breeding seabirds, no separate assessment of barrier to movement is carried out, with impacts considered to be included in the assessments carried out under the impact Disturbance and Displacement.
  3. This section therefore only considers the impact of the barrier to movement on migratory receptors. In the absence of quantitative information available for individual species, the magnitude is considered qualitatively for all receptors.
  4. The diversion of flight lines as a result of a barrier effect created by the presence of the Array for migratory birds is considered less of an impact than for those barrier effects to daily foraging flights. Speakman et al. (2009) and Masden et al. (2010; 2012) calculated that the costs of one-off avoidances during migration were small, accounting for less than 2% of available fat reserves.
  5. A bird reaching the Array and following the perimeter around to resume the same flight path on the other side would fly a maximum of approximately 80 km to resume the flight path, compared to the approximately 20 km straight line across the middle of the array area, i.e. a 60 km increase in flight path. The shortest flight path from the east coast of Scotland to the west coast of Scandinavia that would pass through the Array is approximately 565 km. Therefore, the maximum impact would be an increase in migration route of 10.6%. In reality, this level of impact is unrealistic, as most birds will deviate by less, either by altering their flight path in a more efficient manner or by increasing their altitude to fly above the wind farm without any change in direction. It should also be noted that the shortest potential flightlines between the UK and Scandinavia would not pass through the Array at all, with the shortest mainland route being from south-west Norway to the north-east Aberdeenshire coast, or else “island hopping” through Shetland, Fair Isle and Orkney.
  6. This impact would have a negligible impact on the survival of any bird, and therefore there is no potential for an AEOI to any site.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that no adverse effects on the qualifying interest features which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.57   Open ▸ , will occur as a result of barrier to movement impacts during the operation and maintenance phase for the Array. An assessment of the impact of barrier to movement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.57   Open ▸ . Where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.57:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs and their Qualifying Features from Barrier to Movement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.57: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs and their Qualifying Features from Barrier to Movement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

  1. As detailed in Table 5.57   Open ▸ , it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an adverse effect on the integrity of any of the SPAs listed in Table 5.57   Open ▸ or their qualifying features due to barrier to movement resulting from the operation and maintenance of the Array alone. There is no risk of undermining the Conservation Objectives of the sites considered due to the following:
  • given the Array falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA;
  • given the Array falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the distribution of birds within the SPA;
  • given the Array falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species;
  • given the level of impact arising from barrier to movement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the population of the species as a viable component of the site; and
  • given the level of impact arising from barrier to movement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the disturbance of the species within the SPA.

5.4.7.    Entanglement

5.4.7. Entanglement

  1. The LSE2 assessment during the HRA screening process identified that during the operation and maintenance phase, LSE2 could not be ruled out for entanglement as an impact on diving birds. This relates to the following sites and relevant marine ornithological features:
  • Coquet Island SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin).

  • Fair Isle SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding gannet).

  • Farne Islands SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding puffin).

  • Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

-        gannet (breeding);

-        guillemot (breeding);

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Forth Islands SPA

-        gannet (breeding);

-        puffin (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Fowlsheugh SPA

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on breeding razorbill).

  • Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

 

  • North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Noss SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • St Kilda SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

  • Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA

-        gannet (breeding); and

-        breeding seabird assemblage (due to potential impact on above species).

 

  1. It should be noted that there is no pathway for an impact on non-diving birds (e.g. kittiwake) and therefore non-diving birds have been screened out for this impact due to no potential for a LSE2.
  2. The MDS considered within the assessment of entanglement is shown in Table 5.58   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.58:
MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Entanglement during the Operation and Maintenance Phases

Table 5.58: MDS Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Entanglement during the Operation and Maintenance Phases

 

Table 5.59:
Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Entanglement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.59: Designed In Measures Considered for the Assessment of Potential Impacts to Marine Ornithological Features due to Entanglement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

                        Operation and maintenance phase

  1. The HRA screening process (Ossian OWFL, 2023, along with revisions in section 3.1 of this RIAA) identified that during the operation and maintenance phase, LSE2 could not be ruled out for entanglement at 12 European sites for three breeding seabird species (gannet, razorbill and puffin) and their associated breeding seabird assemblages, as listed above and in Table 3.1   Open ▸ .
  2. A maintenance plan will be put in place during operation and maintenance ( Table 5.59   Open ▸ ). This maintenance plan will ensure that mooring lines and floating inter-array cables will be inspected frequently to confirm the structural integrity of the cable systems, using a risk-based adaptive management approach. During these inspections, the presence of discarded fishing gear will be evaluated for seabird entanglement risk and appropriate actions will be taken to remove if deemed necessary.
  3. With the measures in place, the potential likelihood of any entanglement will be further reduced, making it of negligible consequence and insufficient to result in significant disturbance or a population level effect.
  4. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an adverse effect with respect to entanglement in mooring lines for any of the European sites and/or their qualifying ornithology features screened in for assessment and no measurable impact to carry forward for in-combination assessment.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that no adverse effects on the qualifying interest features which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.60   Open ▸ , will occur as a result of entanglement during the operation and maintenance phase for the Array. An assessment of the impact of entanglement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.60   Open ▸ . Where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.60:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs and their Qualifying Features from Entanglement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.60: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs and their Qualifying Features from Entanglement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

  1. As detailed in Table 5.60   Open ▸ , the conclusion remains consistent across all instances: there is no discernible risk of adverse effects on the integrity of the SPAs, or their qualifying features due to entanglement resulting from the operation and maintenance of the Array alone. Additionally, there is no risk of undermining the Conservation Objectives of the sites considered due to the following:
  • given the Array falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA;
  • given the Array falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the distribution of birds within the SPA;
  • given the Array falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species;
  • given the level of impact arising from entanglement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the population of the species as a viable component of the site; and
  • given the level of impact arising from entanglement from the Array area, there is no potential for the Array to influence the disturbance of the species within the SPA.

5.5.        Assessment of Adverse Effects in-Combination with other Plans and Projects

5.5. Assessment of Adverse Effects in-Combination with other Plans and Projects

  1. As detailed in section 4.6, certain impacts were excluded from further consideration if their assessment at the project level indicated negligible effects, deeming them inconsequential to any meaningful contribution to an existing cumulative impact. Following the alone assessment, the following effect pathways were excluded from the in-combination assessment:
  1. Sites and features were included within the in-combination assessment if any of the following criteria were met during the alone assessment:
  • the Array alone impact from displacement and/or collision at the Array is greater than or equal to one individual per year (following the most precautionary approach to assessment); and/or
  • the Array alone impact at the Array results in an increase in mortality rate of greater than or equal to 0.02 percentage points; and/or
  • an Appropriate Assessment for one or more of the other considered plans has identified a potential AEOI to the feature.
  1. If none of the above criteria are met, it was concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that the Array, in combination with other plans or projects, does not pose any potential for an AEOI.
  2. Based on the evaluation of the Array alone (section 5.4) and the above criteria, it was concluded that the only impact pathways for which there is the potential for an in-combination effect are disturbance and displacement, and collision risk. A potential in-combination effect has only been identified during the operation and maintenance phase.
  3. The sites, features and impacts that require an in-combination assessment are presented in Table 5.61   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.61:
Assessment of Features of SPA or Ramsar sites Requiring In-Combination Assessment

Table 5.61: Assessment of Features of SPA or Ramsar sites Requiring In-Combination Assessment

 

  1. The sites that do not meet any of the criteria set out in paragraph 351 are:
  • Copinsay SPA;
  • Fair Isle SPA;
  • North Rona and Sula Sgeir SPA;
  • Outer Firth of Forth and St Andrew’s Bay Complex SPA;
  • Sule Skerry and Sule Stack SPA;
  • Cameron Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Din Moss - Hoselaw Loch SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Fala Flow SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Firth of Forth SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Gladhouse Reservoir SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Greenlaw Moor SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Holburn Lake and Moss SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Lindisfarne SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Loch of Kinnordy SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Loch Leven SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Montrose Basin SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Northumbria Coast SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Slamannan Plateau SPA;
  • South Tayside Goose Roosts SPA and Ramsar site;
  • Westwater SPA and Ramsar site; and
  • Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA, Ythan Estuary and Meikle Loch Ramsar site.

 

  1. For all these sites, as set out above, it has been demonstrated that that Array will not make a meaningful contribution to any cumulative impact, and therefore it is concluded beyond reasonable scientific doubt that the Array will not cause an AEOI to any of those sites.

5.5.1.    In-combination data sources

5.5.1. In-combination data sources

  1. The in-combination assessment for ornithology requires the mortality from each other relevant project apportioned to the SPA or Ramsar site being assessed. Primarily, this has been drawn from the recent Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm RIAA (SSE Renewables, 2022) as the most comprehensive recent compilation. It should be noted that Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm do not provide in-combination values for individual projects but totalled for the UK North Sea region. Where values were not available from Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm, other data sources were used as necessary.
  2. In addition, project-alone values for more recent applications have been added to the Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm totals, specifically Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm (Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm, 2023), West of Orkney Wind Farm (Offshore Wind Power Limited, 2023), Pentland Floating Offshore Wind (Xodus Group Ltd, 2022), Five Estuaries Offshore Windfarm (Five Estuaries Wind Farm Ltd, 2023), Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind (Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind, 2023) and Sheringham Shoal and Dudgeon Offshore Wind Farm Extension Projects (hereafter SEP & DEP) (Equinor, 2022, 2023). As quantitative information for these projects was not available at the time Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm was compiling its assessment, values for these projects are not included in the UK North Sea totals presented by Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  3. The number of mortalities for other projects is dependent on the approach used for assessment. There is scope for this to vary, for example using different displacement rate/mortality rates to assess distributional responses, or different avoidance rates to assess collision mortality. Typically, more than one approach is presented to give a range of plausible impact mortalities. In particular, Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm followed a “dual approach” to assessment, presenting both a “Scoping Approach” (following advice from SNCBs, as presented in the NatureScot guidance notes) and a “Developer Approach” (the preferred approach of that project’s developer). Where the Scoping Approach is used to assess a range of impacts, the lower and upper end of that range are distinguished as “Scoping A” and “Scoping B” respectively. For more details on the approaches to assessment used in previous assessments, refer to the source document referenced (SSE Renewables, 2022).
  4. This in-combination assessment presents the full range of impact mortalities, as presented in the source material, and from that range considers the lowest value and the highest value presented for each other project (identified here as the approach applied by each project), in order to create a “low” approach total (which is typically either the project applicant’s preferred approach or the lower end of the SNCB approach) and a ”high” approach total (typically the more precautionary end of the SNCB approach).
  5. Where quantitative assessment is not available in the source data for a project for a feature/site, this is shown as “N/A” in the tables in each assessment. If no quantitative information is available, this is indicative that the source assessment concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that the project had either no connectivity or a negligible impact on the feature/site.
  6. In line with NatureScot’s comments on the Offshore HRA Screening Report (Ossian OWFL, 2023) ( Table 2.1   Open ▸ ), the assessment has been carried out both including impacts from Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and excluding those impacts. Where the in-combination totals are sources from the Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm RIAA (SSE Renewables, 2022), Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s own impact is included in the UK North Sea regional totals (with the contribution from each project drawing on public domain information). Therefore, the scenario excluding impacts from Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is calculated by simply subtracting the Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone impacts from the UK North Sea regional total (with results presented as low and high, based in the Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm Developer and Scoping B approaches).

                        Addendum: Green Volt Decision

  1. It is noted that towards the finalisation of this RIAA, a decision on the Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm application was published, with consent granted by the Scottish Ministers (Scottish Government, 2024). Before reaching this decision, the Scottish Ministers carried out an Appropriate Assessment (Appendix B of Scottish Government, 2024) and concluded that an AEOI in-combination is either expected or cannot be ruled out for the following SPA and feature combinations that are relevant for the Array assessment:
  • Kittiwake at Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA;
  • Kittiwake, guillemot and razorbill at East Caithness Cliffs SPA;
  • Gannet and puffin at Forth Islands SPA;
  • Kittiwake at Fowlsheugh SPA; and
  • Kittiwake at Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA.
  1. Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm will be required to carry out compensation to mitigate its impact for all sites and features where an AEOI was not ruled out in the Appropriate Assessment (Appendix B of Scottish Government, 2024). Therefore, for those features, the net impact from Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm following compensation may be deemed to be zero. However, as this decision was published during the time that the in-combination assessments for the Array were undertaken in this RIAA, the in-combination totals for Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm have not been amended to reflect this requirement for compensation, and the predicted impact from Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm prior to compensation (as per Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm, 2023) have been included in the calculation of in-combination total impact values. Therefore, the totals presented in this RIAA for those features listed in paragraph 363 must be considered to have an extra element of precaution, as a result of the inclusion of impacts which will be compensated for. It is noted that the impacts from Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm alone tend to be a small proportion of the in-combination totals and therefore it is not anticipated that this degree of precaution would influence the conclusions and the determination of AEOI or no AEOI.  

5.5.2.    Disturbance and Displacement

5.5.2. Disturbance and Displacement

                        Operation and Maintenance Phase

  1. During the operational phase, seabirds may be impacted by a disturbance and/or displacement due to the physical presence of wind turbines, vessel traffic and helicopter activity. Disturbance and/or displacement may have consequent impacts on the survival or fitness of birds. If displacement limits seabird access to foraging areas, it can result in reduced energy intake and reduced foraging success. Displacement effects can also cause increased inter- and intra-specific competition for alternative foraging areas and prey resources.
  2. The displacement and subsequent mortality rates used for the Array are given in Table 5.3   Open ▸ , although for this in-combination assessment, only the lowest and highest approach are taken through to assess the total range of impacts. For other developments, the displacement and mortality rates are as described in the data source referenced in each case.
                        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.62   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.62:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 Table 5.62: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.63   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.63:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.63: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 7.8 to 20.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.035 to 0.090 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.64   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.
Table 5.64:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

Table 5.64: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA has declined significantly between its citation level of 60,904 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), and is assessed as being in “Unfavourable No Change” condition (NatureScot, ND). There have however been recent signs of slight recovery, with 13,547 AONs (27,094 individuals) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al, 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario and also under all impact scenarios considered. The median Counterfactual of Growth Rate (CGR) is, for all scenarios, at least 0.999 which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the Counterfactual of Population Size (CPS) ranges from 0.963 (with Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm; High approach to assessment) to 0.986 (without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm; Low approach to assessment).
  3. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is not of a magnitude that can be said to adversely affect the likelihood of the kittiwake population being maintained as a viable component of the site.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no significant impact on the kittiwake population. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Coquet Island SPA
Puffin (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding puffin disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.65   Open ▸ .
Table 5.65:
Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Coquet Island SPA From Other Relevant Projects

 Table 5.65: Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Coquet Island SPA From Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.66   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.66:
Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Coquet Island SPA In-Combination Totals

 Table 5.66: Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Coquet Island SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 50,058 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 3.3 to 42.1 additional mortalities represents a 0.007 to 0.084 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.67   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.67:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Coquet Island SPA

Table 5.67: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Coquet Island SPA

 

  1. The puffin population of the Coquet Island SPA has increased significantly between its citation level of 31,686 breeding adults and recent counts of 50,058 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Whilst the PVA results indicate a significant population decline from the current level even under the counterfactual scenario, given the positive growth observed at this site in recent years, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR. The limitations of the PVA model and available demographic parameters to specify as inputs mean that CPS and CGR are considered the most reliable metrics, as further detailed in appendix 3B. The median CGR is, for all scenarios and approaches, 0.999 to 1.000 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.1% or less. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.965 to 0.997. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the puffin population compared to the counterfactual scenario.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, puffin was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no significant impact on the puffin population. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Coquet Island SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        East Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.68   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.68:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.68: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.69   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.69:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.69: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 55.0 to 179.7 additional mortalities represent a 0.112 to 0.367 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.70   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.70:
Summary of PVA results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.70: Summary of PVA results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA has declined slightly from its citation level of 65,000 breeding adults, with recent counts of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), although it is assessed as being in “Favourable Maintained” condition (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.999 under the “low” approach (whether including or excluding the impact of Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) and 0.996 under the “high” approach (whether including or excluding the impact of Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm). This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.855 to 0.954 – i.e. the population size would be 4.6% to 14.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage at the East Caithness Cliffs, only kittiwake was deemed to have any potential LSE2 ( Table 3.1   Open ▸ ). It is concluded (above) that there is a potential for an AEOI on the kittiwake feature as a result of the Array in-combination with other developments.
  2. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA resulting from the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments.  
                        Farne Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.71   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.71:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.71: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.72   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.72:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.72: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 2.2 to 15.4 additional mortalities represents a 0.025 to 0.175 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.73   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.73:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

Table 5.73: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 8,241 breeding adults to recent counts of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.998 to 1.000. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.928 to 0.989 – i.e. the population size would be 1.1% to 7.2% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.  
Puffin (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding puffin disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.74   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.74:
Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.74: Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.75   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.75:
Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.75: Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 87,504 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 6.2 to 74.4 additional mortalities represents a 0.007 to 0.085 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.76   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.76:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Farne Islands SPA

Table 5.76: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Farne Islands SPA

 

  1. The puffin population of the Farne Islands SPA has increased between its citation level of 76,798 breeding adults and recent counts of 87,504 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Whilst the PVA results indicate a substantial population decline from the current level, given the growth observed at this site in recent years, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR. The limitations of the PVA model and available demographic parameters to specify as inputs mean that CPS and CGR are considered the most reliable metrics, as further detailed in appendix 3B. The median CGR is, for all scenarios and approaches, 0.999 to 1.000 which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.965 to 0.997. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the puffin population compared to the counterfactual scenario.  
                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. The assessments carried out above conclude that there is no material impact resulting from displacement on the puffin or kittiwake components of the breeding seabird assemblage at the Farne Islands SPA. No other component was found to have any potential for a LSE2. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Farne Islands SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.77   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.77:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.77: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.78   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.78:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.78: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 19.0 to 71.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.021 to 0.078 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.79   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.79:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.79: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 89,040 breeding adults to recent counts of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.999 to 1.000. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.967 to 0.991 – i.e. the population size would be 0.9% to 3.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario, and it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI on the kittiwake feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments.
Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.80   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.80:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.80: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.81   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.81:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.81: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 73.3 to 213.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.274 to 0.797 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.82   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.82:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.82: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.997 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.3%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.889 to 0.890.
  3. Under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.991 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.9% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.713 to 0.715.
  4. Under either approach, the level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. However, given that the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is insufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population continuing to meet the site’s conservation objectives relating to maintaining the species’ population abundance.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other assessments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2. Guillemot was also screened in at the request of Natural England, but following the advice in NatureScot (2023d), no impact from the Array is apportioned to guillemots breeding at Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA. The assessments carried out for kittiwake and gannet (above) conclude there is no adverse effect on those features resulting from the displacement impact of the Array in-combination with other developments.
  2. Therefore, it is also concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the breeding seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other assessments.

                        Forth Islands SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.83   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.83:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.83: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.84   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.84:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.84: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 7.7 to 33.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.085 to 0.371 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.85   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.85:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.85: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.996 to 0.999. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.853 to 0.964 – i.e. the population size would be 3.6% to 14.7% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Under the “low” approach, whether or not Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the magnitude of the impact is considered to be negligible. However, under the “high” approach, the impact, whilst small, is of a magnitude that cannot be considered negligible. Given the population has already declined from its citation level, even this small impact has the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.
                        Puffin
  1. The source information regarding puffin disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.86   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.86:
Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.86: Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.87   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.87:
Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.87: Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 85,846 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 46.7 to 294.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.054 to 0.343 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.88   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.88:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.88: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The puffin population of the Forth Islands SPA has increased between its citation level of 28,000 breeding adults and recent counts of 87,504 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Whilst the PVA results indicate a significant population decline from the current level, given the beneficial growth observed at this site in recent years, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR, as explained in appendix 3B.
  3. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.999 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.975 to 0.977. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the puffin population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  4. Under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.996 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.4% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.865 to 0.878. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. However, given that the puffin population of the Forth Islands SPA has increased dramatically, the magnitude of impact is insufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population continuing to meet the site’s conservation objectives.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the puffin feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.
  6. It is noted that the Scottish Ministers were unable to conclude no AEOI for the puffin feature of Forth Islands SPA from the Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm in-combination with other North Sea wind farms (Scottish Government, 2024). However, that conclusion was based on Green Volt’s PVA result indicating a CPS of 0.372 and CGR of 0.973, which represents a level of impact substantially higher than the predicted PVA impact demonstrated in this RIAA in Table 5.88   Open ▸ (CGR ranging from 0.999 to 0.996). Therefore, the conclusion drawn by the Scottish Ministers for the puffin feature of the Forth Islands in the Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm Appropriate Assessment (Appendix B of Scottish Government, 2024) does not affect the conclusion of no potential for AEOI drawn for this RIAA.  

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.89   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.89:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.89: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.90   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.90:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.90: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 121.9 to 457.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.081 to 0.304 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.91   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.91:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.91: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 51,844 AOS (103,688 breeding adults), representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is dramatic, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.996 to 0.999. The CPS ranges from 0.879 to 0.966. Given the significant growth of the gannet population prior to the HPAI outbreak, and given recent evidence that the population size is growing again, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding assemblage, a potential LSE2 was identified for kittiwake, puffin and gannet. For each of those species, an assessment of the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments is provided above. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature nor to the puffin feature. Kittiwake is not a feature of the site in its own right and is only included as a component of the assemblage. It was concluded that there is a potential for an adverse effect on the population size of the kittiwake feature under the High approach to assessment.
  2. However, whilst, under the most precautionary approach to assessment, there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small.Under the high approach to assessment including Berwick Bank, the CPS is 0.853, which indicates a population size 14.7% smaller than the counterfactual. Whilst such a decline may be distinguishable from natural variation, it is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Even if slightly lower in abundance, kittiwake would still be present as a functional breeding component of the site. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, the impact on the overall seabird assemblage size would be negligible, and not of a magnitude that would be detectable compared to natural variation, when considering the amount of variation that could arise across all component species (as noted above, both gannet and puffin have shown substantial population growth compared to their citation abundances). It should also be reiterated that the displacement and mortality rates applied under the “High” approach to assessment are not considered compatible with the best available science (see section 5.2.2). Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA.

                        Fowlsheugh SPA

                        Kittiwake

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.92   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.92:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.92: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.93   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.93:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.93: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 17.1 to 83.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.061 to 0.296 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.94   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.94:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.94: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
  2. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.999 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.958 to 0.974. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.997 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.998 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.882 to 0.925. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Razorbill (seabird assemblage component only)

  1. The source information regarding razorbill disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.95   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.95:
Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.95: Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.96   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.96:
Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.96: Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 18,844 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 20.2 to 130.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.107 to 0.693 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.97   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.97:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Razorbill at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.97: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Razorbill at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The razorbill population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has increased between its citation level of 5,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 18,844 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Whilst the PVA results indicate a significant population decline from the current level, given the positive growth observed to date, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR.
  3. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.998 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.999 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.1% to 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.946 to 0.956. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the razorbill population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  4. However, under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.992 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.993 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.7% to 0.8% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.746 to 0.785. This level of impact is moderate, and despite the population growth observed to date, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. However, razorbill is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage at Fowlsheugh SPA, a potential LSE2 was identified only for kittiwake and razorbill. Assessments of the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments for those components are presented above.
  2. Under the low approach to assessment, the impact for both species is deemed to be negligible, and so it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI of the seabird assemblage feature.
  3. However, under the high approach to assessment, it was found that the population of both kittiwake and razorbill components could be expected to decline significantly. Given this impact on two of the five named components of the assemblage, it is concluded that, under the high approach to assessment, there is a potential for an AEOI on the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA.

                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.98   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.98:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.98: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.99   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.99:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.99: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 14.9 to 45.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.025 to 0.078 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.100   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.100:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

Table 5.100: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA has increased between its citation level of 32,800 breeding adults to recent counts of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.999 to 1.000. The CPS ranges from 0.968 to 0.990. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA

                        Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.101   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.101:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.101: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.102   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.102:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.102: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 9.0 to 25.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.080 to 0.231 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.103   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.103:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.103: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.999 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.961 to 0.906. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.997 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.998 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.906 to 0.919. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.
  4. Recent surveys indicate that kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA have not been harmed by HPAI, and indeed the population appears to be growing. Considering matched sites within the North Caithness Cliffs SPA, the population of kittiwakes has increased from 5,299 AON in the Seabird Count data collection period to 7,481 AON in 2023, a 40% increase (Tremlett et al., 2024). (Note that not all sites were surveyed in 2023, and therefore these figures do not represent the full SPA population).

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA, a potential LSE2 was identified only for kittiwake, for which an assessment has been provided above.
  2. Under the low approach to assessment, the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments was found to make no material impact, and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA.
  3. Under the high approach to assessment, it was concluded that the kittiwake population might be adversely affected. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.  

                        Noss SPA

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.104   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.104:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.104: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.105   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.105:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.105: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 6.7 to 21.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.025 to 0.079 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.106   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.106:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

Table 5.106: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased from its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults to recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.999 to 1.000. The CPS ranges from 0.967 to 0.990. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

                        Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.107   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.107:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.107: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.108   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.108:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.108: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 5.3 to 104.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.052 to 1.013 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.109   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.109:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Table 5.109: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults and recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.999 to 0.998 which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.1% to 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.979 to 0.937. Overall, under this scenario, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.996 (under the “low” approach) to 0.988 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.4% to 1.2% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.865 to 0.648. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. An assessment of the impact on kittiwake is provided above.
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded it was found there will be no material impact to kittiwake, and therefore no potential impact on the seabird assemblage. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, then it is likely that the kittiwake population will decline. Kittiwake were a significant portion of the assemblage at designation, consisting 21,170 pairs. As of the Seabirds Count census, this had declined to 5,150 pairs. It is concluded that the magnitude of decline if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included is sufficient that it could adversely affect kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the assemblage. It is also concluded that it could negatively affect the total size of the breeding seabird assemblage population.  
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, but there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from the in-combination displacement impact of the Array and other developments including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.

                        St Kilda SPA

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.110   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.110:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.110: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.111   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.111:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.111: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 120,580 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 0.4 to 1.4 additional mortalities represents a 0.000 to 0.001 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of St Kilda SPA resulting from displacement impact from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for displacement. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Kilda SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

                        Kittiwake

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.112   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.112:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.112: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.113   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.113:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.113: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 12.1 to 42.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.057 to 0.199 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.114   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.114:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

Table 5.114: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA has decreased between its citation level of 63,200 breeding adults and recent counts of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.998 to 0.999 which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.918 to 0.976. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA resulting from displacement impact from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for displacement. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the kittiwake feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt,that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that the Array area in-combination with other plans and projects would have an adverse effects on certain qualifying features for several sites, as a result of disturbance and displacement impacts during the construction, operation, maintenance, and/or decommissioning phases, which could therefore undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.115   Open ▸ . An assessment of the impact of disturbance and displacement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.115   Open ▸ , where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.115:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Disturbance and Displacement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.115: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Disturbance and Displacement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

  1. As detailed in Table 5.115   Open ▸ , adverse effects on the qualifying seabird features of three SPAs were identified, which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPA as a result of disturbance and displacement associated with activities during operation and maintenance phase of the Array in-combination with other plans and projects. There is risk therefore of undermining the following Conservation Objectives of the sites:
  • Maintain the long term distribution of the species within site and avoid significant disturbance of the species: Given the level of impact arising from disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to influence the population of designated features as viable components of:

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill), and

-        St Abb's Head to Fast Castle SPA (seabird assemblage).

-        given the level of impact arising from disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to disturb the distribution of features within the following SPAs:

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill), and

-        St Abb's Head to Fast Castle SPA (seabird assemblage).

 

  1. For all sites considered, there is no risk to undermining the following Conservation Objectives:
  • as the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA; and
  • as the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species.

5.5.3.    Collision

5.5.3. Collision

  1. Operational wind turbines and associated infrastructure present a collision risk for seabirds flying within the array. Direct collision with infrastructure may result in injury or death; however, it is assumed that all collisions with operational wind turbines result in mortality.
  2. For the Array’s impacts, CRM for regularly occurring species was undertaken using the sCRM developed by Marine Scotland (McGregor et al., 2018). The User Guide for the sCRM Shiny App provided by Marine Scotland (Donovan, 2017) has been followed for the modelling of collision impacts predicted for the Array. The full methodology and input parameters is provided in volume 3, appendix 11.2 of the Array EIA Report.
  3. For other developments considered, the approach to quantifying collision risk is as detailed in the data sources listed in the tables below. This will not necessarily be identical to the approach undertaken by Ossian, given developments of new CRM software and/or changing evidence and advice regarding appropriate input parameters to use for modelling.

                        Operation and maintenance phase

                        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.116   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.116:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.116: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.117   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.117:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.117: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 62,3 to 79.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.276 to 0.354 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.118   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.118:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

Table 5.118: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA has declined significantly between its citation level of 60,904 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), and is assessed as being in “Unfavourable No Change” condition (NatureScot, ND). There have however been recent signs of slight recovery, with 13,547 AONs (27,094 individuals) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al, 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR ranges is 0.996 under both the high and low approach if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are included, or 0.997 if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are excluded. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.860 to 0.889 – i.e. the population size would be 11.1% to 14.0% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population, for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, it is expected that there would be a small but detectable negative impact on the kittiwake population. The seabird assemblage citation level is 95,000 individual seabirds, of which 60,904 were kittiwake. The decline in the kittiwake population between the citation level and Seabirds Count (Burnell et al., 2023) is therefore sufficient to adversely affect the overall population of the seabird assemblage. Whilst other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population has increased from 17,280 breeding adults to 39,440 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), this is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the decline in the kittiwake population. Therefore, whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        East Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.119   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.119:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.119: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.120   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.120:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.120: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 224.6 to 254.1 additional mortalities represents a 0.459 to 0.519 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.121   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.121:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.121: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA has declined slightly from its citation level of 65,000 breeding adults and recent counts of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), although it is assessed as being in “Favourable Maintained” condition (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.994 under both the high and low approach if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are included, or 0.994 to 0.995 if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are excluded. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.801 to 0.822 – i.e. the population size would be 17.8% to 19.9% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Farne Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.122   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.122:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.122: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.123   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.123:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.123: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 11.4 to 38.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.130 to 0.441 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.124   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.124:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

Table 5.124: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 8,241 breeding adults to recent counts of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.995 to 0.998. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.827 to 0.946 – i.e. the population size would be 5.4% to 17.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario, and it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an adverse effect on the kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments.
  4. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, whilst the level of impact is still small, it is no longer considered immaterial and the additional mortality from the Array in-combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.
                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant adverse impact on the size of the kittiwake population if Berwick Bank is included.
  2. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large impact that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, kittiwake is the only component of the assemblage for which a potential LSE2 has been identified from collision risk. Kittiwake are a minor component of the assemblage, with a citation population of 8,241 breeding adults out of the total assemblage citation population of 163,819 individuals. Other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population at citation was 65,750 breeding adults; the recent Seabirds Count estimated the population size to be 85,816 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). Therefore, the overall population of the assemblage will be maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Farne Islands SPA as a result of collision.
                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.125   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.125:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.125: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.126   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.126:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.126: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 465.3 to 497.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.511 to 0.547 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.127   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.127:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.127: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 89,040 breeding adults to recent counts of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.994. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.791 to 0.804 – i.e. the population size would be 19.6% to 20.9% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst the population has grown slightly from the citation level, the magnitude of the impact is sufficient that it has the potential to adversely affect the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of the in-combination collision impact.
Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.128   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.128:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.128: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.129   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.129:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.129: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 286.7 to 293.2 additional mortalities represents a 1.0671 to 1.095 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.130   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.130:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.130: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Under all scenarios and approaches, the CGR is 0.987, and the CPS ranges from 0.627 to 0.634. Whilst the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been growing, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should, however, be noted that The Array’s contribution to the in-combination collision impact is small, being 0.8 to 2.3 birds per year, or approximately 0.3 to 0.8% of the total impact.
  5. It should further be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI, and moreover the Array’s contribution to the total impact would be imperceptible.
  6. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA.
  7. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach, no AEOI would be expected to occur, and The Array could not be stated to be making a material contribution to any in-combination impact.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The assessments found both species are expected to have an AEOI. In this instance, the magnitude of those impacts is sufficient to indicate that the overall seabird assemblage could, under the most precautionary (“high”) approach to assessment, be adversely affected.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Forth Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.131   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.131:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.131: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.132   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.132:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.132: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 25.7 to 59.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.283 to 0.652 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.133   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.133:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.133: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.992 to 0.997. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.757 to 0.887 – i.e. the population size would be 11.3% to 24.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.
Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.134   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.134:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.134: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.135   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.135:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.135: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 574.7 to 747.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.382 to 0.496 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.136   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.136:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.136: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 103,688 breeding adults, representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is substantial, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.994 to 0.996. The CPS ranges from 0.810 to 0.851. When considering the dramatic and sustained growth of the gannet population within the Forth Islands SPA prior to the HPAI outbreak and the anticipated recovery, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The gannet population is expected to grow, whilst the kittiwake population is expected to decline. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of collision risk from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Fowlsheugh SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.137   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.137:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.137: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.138   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.138:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.138: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 80.3 to 183.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.286 to 0.653 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.139   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.139:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.139: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.992 to 0.997. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.756 to 0.884 – i.e. the population size would be 11.6% to 24.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the seabird assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA
Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.140   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.140:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.140: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.141   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.141:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.141: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 73.8 to 79.1 additional mortalities represents a 0.125 to 0.134 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.142   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.142:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

Table 5.142: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA has increased between its citation level of 32,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.998 to 0.999. The CPS ranges from 0.945 to 0.949. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives. This is concluded due to both the impacted and unimpacted scenarios predicting the population to be be far greater than the citation population.
  3. Therefore, there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.143   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.143:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.143: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.144   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.144:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.144: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 44.9 to 52.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.403 to 0.474 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.145   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.145:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.145: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults and recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.994 to 0.995 (under all scenarios and approaches) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.5% to 0.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.816 to 0.842. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. 

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Noss SPA
Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.146   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.146:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.146: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.147   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.147:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.147: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 31.0 to 33.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.113 to 0.123 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.148   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.148:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

Table 5.148: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased between its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults and recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR is 0.999 under all scenarios and approaches. The CPS ranges from 0.949 to 0.953. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives. This is concluded due to both the impacted and unimpacted scenarios predicting the population to be far greater than the citation population.
  3. Therefore, there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.149   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.149:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.149: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.150   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.150:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.150: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 17.0 to 301.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.165 to 2.925 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.151   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.151:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Table 5.151: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults and recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.998 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.927 to 0.933. Overall, under this scenario, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.976 (under the “low” approach) to 0.965 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 2.4% to 3.5% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.411 to 0.281. This level of impact is considered to be high.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. An assessment of the impact on kittiwake is provided above.
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded it was found there will be no discernible impact to kittiwake, and therefore no potential impact on the seabird assemblage.
  3. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, then it is likely that the kittiwake population will decline. Kittiwake were a significant portion of the assemblage at designation, consisting 21,170 pairs. As of the Seabirds Count census, this had declined to 5,150 pairs. It is concluded that the magnitude of decline if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included is sufficient that it could adversely affect kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the assemblage. It is also concluded that it could negatively affect the total size of the breeding seabird assemblage population.  
  4. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, but there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from the in-combination displacement impact of the Array and other developments including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  5. However, it should be noted that Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm identified an AEOI ‘alone’ for the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA (SSE Renewables, 2022). Therefore, should Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm proceed, then its impact on the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA will be fully mitigated and should not be included in the Array ‘in-combination’ assessment.
  6. On this basis, it is appropriate to not include Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm in the in-combination assessment for this particular site and feature, in which case there is no AEOI alone or in-combination for the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA.
                        St Kilda SPA
Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.152   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.152:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.152: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.153   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.153:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.153: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 120,580 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 2.3 to 3.4 additional mortalities represents a 0.002 to 0.003 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of St Kilda SPA resulting from collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Kilda SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.154   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.154:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.154: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.155   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.155:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.155: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 55.9 to 69.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.263 to 0.329 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.156   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.156:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

Table 5.156: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA has decreased between its citation level of 63,200 breeding adults and recent counts of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.996 to 0.997 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.3% to 0.4% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.869 to 0.894. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded that the Array area in-combination with other plans and projects would have an adverse effects on certain qualifying features for several sites, as a result of collision risk impacts during the operation and maintenance phase, which could therefore undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.157   Open ▸ . An assessment of the impact of collision risk against each relevant conservation objective is presentedTable 5156, where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

 

Table 5.157:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Collision during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.157: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Collision during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

  1. As detailed in Table 5.157   Open ▸ , adverse effects on the qualifying seabird features of seven SPAs were identified. This is the result of impacts which would undermine the conservation objective to maintain or restore the populations of the features of the SPA as a result of in-combination collision during operation and maintenance phase activities.
  2. There is risk therefore of undermining the following Conservation Objectives of the sites:
  • Maintain the long term population of the species as a viable component of the site: Given the level of impact arising from collision risk from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to influence the population of designated features as viable components of:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast castle SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

  • Maintain the long term distribution of the species within site and avoid significant disturbance of the species: Given the level of impact arising from collision risk from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to disturb the distribution of features within the following SPAs:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast castle SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

  1. For all sites considered, there is no risk to undermining the following Conservation Objectives:
  • Maintain the long term distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA; and
  • Maintain the long term structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species.

5.5.4.    Displacement and Collision Combined

5.5.4. Displacement and Collision Combined

  1. The apportioned annual mortality rates for displacement and collision are extracted from the relevant information within sections 5.5.2 and 5.5.3, respectively.

                        Operation and maintenance phase

                        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage feature only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.63   Open ▸ and Table 5.117   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.158   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.158:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned To the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.158: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned To the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 70.1 to 100.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.310 to 0.443 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.159   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.159:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

Table 5.159: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA has declined significantly between its citation level of 60,904 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), and is assessed as being in “Unfavourable No Change” condition (NatureScot, ND). There have however been recent signs of slight recovery, with 13,547 AONs (27,094 individuals) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al, 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.995 to 0.996 under both the high and low approach if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are included, or 0.996 if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are excluded. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.828 to 0.876 – i.e. the population size would be 12.4% to 17.2% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population, and at citation kittiwake was the most numerous breeding species at this site, whilst based on Seabirds Count (Burnell et al., 2023) guillemot are now more numerous. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        East Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.69   Open ▸ and Table 5.120   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.160   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.160:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.160: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 279.6 to 433.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.571 to 0.886 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.161   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.161:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.161: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA has declined slightly between its citation level of 65,000 breeding adults and recent counts of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), although it is assessed as being in “Favourable Maintained” condition (NatureScot, ND).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR ranges from 0.990 to 0.993. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.687 to 0.784 – i.e. the population size would be 22.6% to 31.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. In the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Farne Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.72   Open ▸ and Table 5.123   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.162   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.162:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.162: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 13.6 to 54.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.155 to 0.616 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.163   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.163:
Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

Table 5.163: Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 8,241 breeding adults to recent counts of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.993 to 0.998. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.768 to 0.936 – i.e. the population size would be 23.2% to 6.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. It should be noted that the approach to assessment of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered highly precautionary, as the simple additive approach has the potential to double count impacts.
  4. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario, and it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI on the kittiwake feature of the Farne SPA as a result of displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
  5. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, whilst the level of impact is still small, it is no longer considered negligible and the additional mortality from the Array in-combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the size of the kittiwake population. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.
                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population.
  2. However, whilst there might be a perceptible negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large impact that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Kittiwake are a minor component of the assemblage, with a citation population of 8,241 breeding adults out of the total assemblage citation population of 163,819 individuals. Other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population at citation was 65,750 breeding adults; the recent Seabirds Count estimated the population size to be 85,816 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  3. Puffin are not considered vulnerable to collision risk and therefore no assessment is presented in this section for combined collision and displacement. However, when assessing the overall impact on the seabird assemblage, consideration also needs to be given to the impact of displacement on puffin, which is presented in section 5.5.2. Those results concluded only a negligible impact to the puffin population as a component of the seabird assemblage.  
  4. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Farne Islands SPA.
                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.78   Open ▸ and Table 5.126   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.164   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.164:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.164: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 484.4 to 569.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.532 to 0.625 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.165   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.165:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts Combined on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.165: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts Combined on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 89,040 breeding adults to recent counts of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.993 to 0.994. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.765 to 0.797 – i.e. the population size would be 20.3% to 23.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst the population has grown slightly from the citation level, the magnitude of the impact is sufficient that it has the potential to adversely affect the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of the combined displacement and collision impact of the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should be noted that the approach to assessment of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered highly precautionary, as the simple additive approach has the potential to double count impacts.
                        Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.81   Open ▸ and Table 5.129   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.166   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.166:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.166: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 360.1 to 506.7 additional mortalities represents a 1.344 to 1.892 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.167   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.167:
Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.167: Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Under all scenarios and approaches, the CGR ranges from 0.978 to 0.984, and the CPS ranges from 0.445 to 0.564. Whilst the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been growing, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of combined collision and displacement impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should, however, be noted that The Array’s contribution to the in-combination collision impact is small, being 1.6 to 4.4 birds per year, or approximately 0.3% to 1.2% of the total impact.
  5. It should further be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI, and moreover The Array’s contribution to the total impact would be imperceptible.
  6. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  7. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total displacement and collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA.
  8. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach, no AEOI would be expected to occur, and the Array could not be stated to be making a material contribution to any in-combination impact.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The assessments found both species are expected to have an AEOI. In this instance, the magnitude of those impacts is sufficient to indicate that the overall seabird assemblage could be adversely affected.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Forth Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.84   Open ▸ and Table 5.132   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.168   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.168:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.168: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 33.4 to 93.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.368 to 1.023 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.169   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.169:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.169: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.988 to 0.996. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.645 to 0.854 – i.e. the population size would be 14.6% to 35.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.
                        Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.90   Open ▸ and Table 5.135   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.170   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.170:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.170: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 696.5 to 1,204.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.463 to 0.800 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.171   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.171:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.171: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 51,844 AOS (103,688 breeding adults), representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is dramatic, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.991 to 0.995. The CPS ranges from 0.712 to 0.822. Whilst the gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA had been growing prior to HPAI, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, which, combined with the impact of HPAI, would be contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of combined collision and displacement impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should, however, be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023) which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI.
  5. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  6. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total displacement and collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA.
  7. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach an AEOI would not be expected to occur.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The gannet population is expected to grow, whilst the kittiwake population is expected to decline. Given the kittiwake population has already declined significantly from its population size at the time the site was designated, this further decline is of a level that has the potential to result in the loss of kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA, resulting from the combined displacement and collision risk, from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Fowlsheugh SPA
                        Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.93   Open ▸ and Table 5.138   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.172   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.172:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.172: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 97.5 to 266.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.347 to 0.949 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.173   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.173:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.173: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.989 to 0.996. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.666 to 0.862 – i.e. the population size would be 13.8% to 33.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. This level of impact is considered small to moderate (depending on the scenario and the approach), and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the seabird assemblage.
  2. Razorbill are not considered vulnerable to collision risk and therefore no assessment is presented in this section for combined collision and displacement. However, when assessing the overall impact on the seabird assemblage, consideration also needs to be given to the impact of displacement on razorbill, which is presented in section 5.5.2. Those results concluded a negligible impact to the razorbill population as a component of the seabird assemblage under the low approach to assessment, or a small impact under the high approach to assessment.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA
                        Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.99   Open ▸ and Table 5.141   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.174   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.174:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.174: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 88.7 to 125.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.150 to 0.211 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.175   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.175:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

Table 5.175: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA has increased between its citation level of 32,800 breeding adults to recent counts of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR is 0.998. The CPS ranges from 0.915 to 0.939. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. It should be noted that even this level of impact is considered overly precautionary. The approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023).
  4. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.102   Open ▸ and Table 5.144   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.176   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.176:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.176: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 53.9 to 78.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.484 to 0.705 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.177   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.177:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.177: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.992 to 0.994 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.6% to 0.8% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.740 to 0.813. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has already decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Noss SPA
Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.105   Open ▸ and Table 5.147   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.178   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.178:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.178: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 37.8 to 55.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.137 to 0.202 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.179   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.179:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

Table 5.179: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased between its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults to recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR is 0.998. The CPS ranges from 0.918 to 0.944. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. It should be noted that even this level of impact is considered overly precautionary. The approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023).
  4. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.108   Open ▸ and Table 5.150   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.180   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.180:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.180: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 22.4 to 405.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.217 to 3.938 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.181   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.181:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Table 5.181: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults to recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.996 to 0.997 which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.3% to 0.4%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.869 to 0.911. Although small, the upper end of the range is a magnitude that may be considered to have a discernible impact on the population. Given the significant decline in the population size from its citation level, even this small impact may be considered to adversely affect the probability of the kittiwake feature meeting the conservation objectives for this site.
  3. However, it should be noted the high level of precaution built into this approach, including the potential double counting as a result of the simple additive approach to combining displacement and collision mortality. Birds that are displaced from the site cannot be subject to collision risk. If a macro avoidance factor of 30% was applied to the collision rates for all projects, then the total impact is likely to drop sufficiently that the impact would be considered negligible. Moreover, the impact from The Array, which is already small, would be further reduced to a level that could be considered imperceptible.
  4. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.972 (under the “low” approach) to 0.953 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 2.8% to 4.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.354 to 0.180. This level of impact is high. Given that the kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that is likely to have an adverse effect on the population continuing to meet the site’s conservation objectives. Whilst there is a high degree of precaution built into the approach, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, even accounting for that precaution an adverse effect remains likely.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded that if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, there would be no significant impact to the kittiwake population (seabird assemblage component only) at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  6. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included then there is a significant impact to the kittiwake population (seabird assemblage component only) of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. An assessment of the impact on kittiwake is provided above.
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded it was found there will be an adverse impact to kittiwake. Whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large affect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained.
  3. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, then it is likely that the kittiwake population will decline more significantly. Kittiwake were a significant portion of the assemblage at designation, consisting 21,170 pairs. As of the Seabirds Count census, this had declined to 5,150 pairs (Burnell et al., 2023). It is concluded that the magnitude of decline if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included is sufficient that it could adversely affect kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the assemblage. It is also concluded that it could negatively affect the total size of the breeding seabird assemblage population.  
  4. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, but there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from the in-combination displacement impact of the Array and other developments including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  5. However, it should be noted that Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm identified an AEOI ‘alone’ for the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA (SSE Renewables, 2022). Therefore, should Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm proceed, then its impact on the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA will be fully mitigated and should not be included in the Array ‘in-combination’ assessment.
  6. On this basis, it is appropriate to not include Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm in the in-combination assessment for this particular site and feature, in which case there is no AEOI alone or in-combination for the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA.
                        St Kilda SPA
Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.111   Open ▸ and Table 5.153   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.182   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.182:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.182: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 120,580 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 2.8 to 4.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.002 to 0.004 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of St Kilda SPA resulting from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Kilda SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.113   Open ▸ and Table 5.155   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.183   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.183:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.183: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 68.1 to 112.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.321 to 0.529 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.184   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.184:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

Table 5.184: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA has decreased between its citation level of 63,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.994 to 0.996 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.4% to 0.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.798 to 0.872. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded that the Array area in-combination with other plans and projects would have an adverse effects on certain qualifying features for several sites, as a result of the combined impact of collision risk and displacement during the operation and maintenance phase, which could therefore undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 518. An assessment of the impact of collision risk and displacement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 518, where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.185:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision During the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.185: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision During the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

  1. As detailed in Table 5.185   Open ▸ , adverse effects on the qualifying seabird features of seven SPAs were identified. This is the result of impacts which would undermine the conservation objective to maintain or restore the populations of the features of the SPA as a result of in-combination combined collision and displacement during operation and maintenance phase activities.
  2. There is risk therefore of undermining the following Conservation Objectives of the sites:
  • Maintain the long term population of the species as a viable component of the site: Given the level of impact arising from collision and disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to influence the population of designated features as viable components of:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Forth Islands SPA (gannet and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

  • Maintain the long term distribution of the species within site and avoid significant disturbance of the species: Given the level of impact arising from collision and disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to disturb the distribution of features within the following SPAs:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Forth Islands SPA (gannet and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

  1. For all sites considered, there is no risk to undermining the following Conservation Objectives:
  • Maintain the long term distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA; and
  • Maintain the long term structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species.

6.             Summary

6. Summary

  1. A summary of the assessments presented in this RIAA, considering the relevant SPAs, is provided in the table below ( Table 6.1   Open ▸ ). Table 6.1   Open ▸ presents the conclusions of whether there is an AEOI in relation to the Array alone and in-combination with other plans and projects for each European site and qualifying species being assessed.
Table 6.1:
Summary of Conclusions

Table 6.1: Summary of Conclusions

 

7.             References

7. References

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Butler, A., Carroll, M., Searle, K., Bolton, M., Waggitt, J., Evans, P., Rehfisch, M., Goddard, B., et al. (2020). Attributing seabirds at sea to appropriate breeding colonies. Scottish Marine and Freshwater Science 11(8). Marine Scotland Science.

Burnell, D., Perkins, A. J., Newton, S. F., Bolton, M., Tierney, T. D., Dunn, T. E. and Vaughan, R. (2023). Seabirds Count A Census of Breeding Seabirds in Britain and Ireland (2015–2021).

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Dunn, R. E., Duckworth, J., O’Brien, S., Furness, R. W., Buckingham, L., Daunt, F., Bogdanova, M., & Green, J. A. (2024). Temporal and spatial variability in availability bias has consequences for marine bird abundance estimates during the non-breeding season. bioRxiv 2024.03.13.584773. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.03.13.584773

Equinor (2022). Sheringham Shoal and Dudgeon Offshore Wind Farm Extension Projects Apportioning and HRA Updates Technical Note (Revision E) (Clean). Available at https://infrastructure.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/wp-content/ipc/uploads/projects/EN010109/EN010109-002168-13.3%20Apportioning%20and%20Habitats%20Regulations%20Assessment%20Updates%20Technical%20Note%20(Revision%20E)%20(Clean).pdf [Accessed June 2024].

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Appendix 3A: Apportioning for RIAA

Appendix 3A: Apportioning for RIAA

  1. Please find appendix 3A attached to this document separately.

Appendix 3B: PVA for RIAA

Appendix 3B: PVA for RIAA

  1. Please find appendix 3B attached to this document separately.

[1] In line with the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion requests from NatureScot and the Scottish Ministers (see Table 2.1   Open ▸ ), all assessments within this RIAA have been carried out presenting both a “with Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm” and “without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm” scenario.

[2] The seasons that a species is present and impacts are being considered is given in brackets.

[3] Leach’s petrel, gannet, Arctic skua, great skua, black-headed gull, lesser black-backed gull, herring gull, great black-backed gull, kittiwake, Sandwich tern, roseate tern, common tern, Arctic tern and guillemot.