12.7. Baseline Environment

12.7.1. Overview of Landings from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area

  1. Commercial fisheries statistics for the annual landed weight and first sales value of UK vessels operating within the specified commercial fisheries local study area (41E9, 42E9 and 42F0) are shown in Figure 12.2   Open ▸ and Figure 12.3   Open ▸ respectively. These data indicate a spike in landings of herring Clupea harengus during 2018 (equating to 2,000 tonnes and first sales value of £1.2 million in 2018). Herring is a pelagic species that is caught in shoals by vessels deploying pelagic trawls that target the shoaling fish as they migrate. This pattern leads to sporadic spikes in landings as noted in Figure 12.2   Open ▸ and Figure 12.3   Open ▸ .
  2. Following that, the landings are primarily dominated by Nephrops norvegicus (also known as Norway lobster, Dublin Bay prawn, langoustine and Nephrops; hereon referred to as Nephrops), haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus and mixed demersal finfish species caught by demersal otter trawling vessels. The majority of landings by UK fishing vessels are made by vessels registered in Scotland (86% by value) and England (14% by value).

Figure 12.2:
Key Species by Annual Landed Weight (tonnes) (2016 to 2022) from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

Figure 12.2: Key Species by Annual Landed Weight (tonnes) (2016 to 2022) from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

 

  1. An annual average value of almost £1.72 million was landed by all UK vessels for the years 2016 to 2022 from the commercial fisheries local study area. Nephrops represent the highest value species landed from the commercial fisheries local study area (average £1 million per annum, Figure 12.3   Open ▸ ), although landings are highly variable across the time series, peaking in 2019 with significant drops in 2020 and 2021 (COVID- 19 pandemic), and growth in 2022. It is noted that during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020 to 2021) there was a drop in the market demand for Nephrops due to a reduction in restaurant trade and export of this high value shellfish. This is reflected in the landings and accounted for by considering a five and thirteen-year timeseries of data. Haddock, monkfish Lophius piscatorius, whiting Merlangius merlangus and halibut Hippoglossus hippoglossus have all followed a similar trend in landings pattern as Nephrops, which is expected given that they are caught as retained bycatch within the Nephrops targeted fishery. These species have a combined annual average value of £288,000 from 2016 to 2022.
  2. Relatively small quantities of other species are landed from the commercial fisheries local study area, including lobster Homarus gammarus (£33,000 average annual value), king scallop Pectan maximum (£18,000 average annual value) and brown crab Cancer pagurus (£25,000 average annual value).

Figure 12.3:
Key Species by Annual Landed Value (GBP) (2016 to 2022) from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

Figure 12.3: Key Species by Annual Landed Value (GBP) (2016 to 2022) from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

 

  1. The commercial fisheries local study area encompasses three ICES rectangles, however, the majority of the Array is located within ICES rectangle 42E9. Landings statistics data by ICES rectangle is presented in Figure 12.4   Open ▸ and Figure 12.5   Open ▸ for weight and value respectively for the time period 2016 to 2022. The highest weight and value are landed from ICES rectangle 42F0, which overlaps with a very small portion of the Array, i.e. 1.02% of the Array is located in 42F0.
  2. The average annual value landed by UK vessels from ICES rectangle 42E9 is £136,000, compared to landings of £1.5 million from 42F0. This highlights that 42E9 is not heavily fished or targeted by UK vessels, with relatively low value of catches; this pattern has remained consistent across the time period analysed (2016 to 2022).
  3. VMS data provides detail on the number of vessels operating within each subdivision of the ICES rectangle at the scale to which data is reported (i.e. 200th of an ICES rectangle). Any individual vessel can operate throughout the ICES rectangle and therefore summing across the ICES rectangle will double count multiple vessels. To give an indication of the number of vessels active in ICES rectangle 42E9, the maximum number of vessels found in any subdivision across the period 2016 to 2020 was four demersal otter trawlers and two dredge vessels. Thereby, a minimum of six vessels contributed to the value of £136,000 from ICES rectangle 42E9.

Figure 12.4:
Annual Landed Weight (tonnes) (2016 to 2022) by ICES Rectangle from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (41E9, 42E9 and 42F0) (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

Figure 12.4: Annual Landed Weight (tonnes) (2016 to 2022) by ICES Rectangle from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (41E9, 42E9 and 42F0) (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

Figure 12.5:
Annual Landed Value (GBP) (2016 to 2022) by ICES Rectangle from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (41E9, 42E9 and 42F0) (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

Figure 12.5: Annual Landed Value (GBP) (2016 to 2022) by ICES Rectangle from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (41E9, 42E9 and 42F0) (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

 

                        Long term landings data

  1. Stakeholder consultation suggested that the commercial fisheries local study area has been more important in the years prior to 2016, specifically for small size classes of haddock (see Table 12.3   Open ▸ ). To explore this further, a longer term trend in landings has been analysed across the commercial fisheries local study area for the period 2011 to 2022 for the three top species: haddock, Nephrops and herring ( Figure 12.6   Open ▸ ).
  2. Haddock show significantly higher landings from 2011 to 2013, particularly from ICES rectangle 42E9 (which the majority of the Array overlaps with). The average value of haddock landed from 42E9 from 2011 to 2013 was £975,000, compared to £69,000 landed per annum from 2019 to 2022.
  3. Landings of haddock from the commercial fisheries local study area fell dramatically in 2016, where levels have remained up to 2022. This trend is not seen at a stock level, where total landings of haddock from the North Sea, West of Scotland and Skaggerak (ICES Divisions 4, 6a and 3a respectively) haddock stock have remained relatively consistent since 2008. Therefore, the evidence suggests that the decline in landings from the commercial fisheries local study area in 2016 is not linked to biological stock factors such as low recruitment for example. Consultation with the fishing industry highlighted that the commercial fisheries local study area had historically been important for small size classes. After Brexit the market and processing resources (including staff) available for this size of haddock became unavailable resulting in the observed drop in haddock landings.
  4. Landings of Nephrops from the commercial fisheries local study area are almost entirely from ICES rectangle 42F0 (partially overlapping the Array, but mainly to the east of the Array). Nephrops landings from this area have peaked and troughed, with a notable spike in landings in 2019; overall landings have been highest from 2019 to 2022 for the long term time series.
  5. Herring landings are sporadic in nature, as previously discussed (see paragraph 22). A high peak is noted to occur in 2018 from ICES rectangle 42F0. Smaller landings from 42E9 are noted in 2014 and 2016, but any trends are typically more reliable to consider at a wider geographic scale due to the high mobility of this species.
  6. The total landed weight and first sales value in ICES rectangle 42E9 and in all ICES rectangles within the UK EEZ are presented in Table 12.5   Open ▸ . The landings and first sales value within 42E9 have steadily decreased between 2011 and 2021. As illustrated, the landings and first sales value from 42E9 are generally low in comparison to the wider UK.

 

Table 12.5:
Summary of Key Fisheries Statistics for ICES Rectangle 42E9 and all ICES Rectangles in the UK EEZ between 2011 and 2021 (Source: MMO, 2017, 2022a)

Table 12.5: Summary of Key Fisheries Statistics for ICES Rectangle 42E9 and all ICES Rectangles in the UK EEZ between 2011 and 2021 (Source: MMO, 2017, 2022a)

Figure 12.6:
Long Term Landing Trends for Haddock, Nephrops and Herring from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

Figure 12.6: Long Term Landing Trends for Haddock, Nephrops and Herring from the Commercial Fisheries Local Study Area (MMO, 2022a; MMO, 2023a)

 

                        Haddock fishery

  1. The long term data trends presented in Figure 12.6   Open ▸ , together with the VMS data for 2011 to 2015 presented in the commercial fisheries technical report (volume 3, appendix 12.1) provide evidence that a haddock fishery was targeted by demersal otter trawl and demersal seine vessels pre 2016 . Furthermore, evidence provided by the fishing industry for vessel tracking/plotter data indicates activity by demersal otter trawl vessels in the north, central and southern portions of the Array (in a north to south direction). Activity by demersal seine vessels is evidenced in the central portions of the Array, understood to be harder ground routinely targeted by this gear type.
  2. Industry consultation indicates that after Brexit, the fish processors found it challenging to secure labour to process small fish by hand, which led to the decline in demand for smaller size class of fish which are more labour intensive to hand-fillet.
  3. Looking in more detail at the time-line of events, the free movement between the UK and the European Union ended on 31 December 2020 and moved to a point-based system based on skills and talent (UK Government, 2020). Therefore, labour shortages could feasibly impact the processing sectors from mid-2020/2021 onwards. However, the drop in haddock landings is noted from 2016 onwards (including the period prior to the referendum vote in the UK). While the reasoning for decline may have been influenced by Brexit, as well as COVID-19 restrictions from 2020 onwards, it does not explain the marked drop from 2016 onwards.
  4. Fisheries legislation that may have influenced the fishery from 2016 onwards includes the Landing Obligation (MMO, 2015), which for the demersal otter trawl fishery in the North Sea was implemented in stages from 2016 to 2017. The landing obligation means that no commercial fishing vessel can return any quota species of any size to the sea once caught. This includes fish that are both over and under minimum conservation reference size (MCRS), with fish less than MCRS permittable to sell, but not for human consumption. In terms of implementation, in the North Sea in 2016, vessels using gear of mesh size 100 mm and more were required to land all haddock and in 2017 this was extended to gear of mesh size 80-99 mm (Marine Directorate, 2023). The landing obligation may have influenced fishers to avoid areas targeted for ‘small’ fish that are above the MCRS, but may bring a higher proportion of catch below MCRS.
  5. Nevertheless, industry consultation in relation to the Array (see Table 12.3   Open ▸ ) has consistently raised the potential for this ‘small’ haddock fishery to resume in the region and overlapping the Array in the short to medium term.
  6. This has been informed by recent investment in the Peterhead area for new processing capabilities, specifically an automated fish processing line using machinery to process smaller fish (rather than labour for filleting by hand). This will process smaller size classes of fish to produce fresh and frozen fillets and portion blocks for value-added ranges in UK and overseas markets. This venture was announced recently (April 2024), with production being fully operational later in 2024 and aims to provide capacity for processing of small size haddock landed within current fisheries quotas (Findlay, 2024). Processing capacity for small haddock may increase the value and profitability of landings with greater proportions of small size classes.  This may lead to increase effort by demersal seine and otter trawl commercial fishing fleets in areas known for small size class haddock (and other white fish) in the future.
  7. Overall, there is potential for this haddock fishery to return to the local study area, but it is not possible to predict when or the potential scale of any future fishery due to the range of factors influencing the decline in 2016, including the implementation of legislation (specifically the Landing Obligation in 2016 and 2017), and Brexit (specifically the referendum in 2016 and end of free movement between UK and EU in 2020).

12.7.2. Overview of Landings from the Commercial Fisheries Regional Study Area

  1. An overview of the UK and EU landings from the commercial fisheries regional study area is presented in the commercial fisheries technical report (volume 3, appendix 12.1).
  2. Within the commercial fisheries regional study area, the highest quantity of catch is taken from 43E9 (north of the Array). For non-UK activity, vessels registered in Denmark, Netherlands, France, Germany and Sweden are recorded to fish within the commercial fisheries regional study area. The key target species for these fleets is herring.

12.7.3. Key commercial fisheries fleet métiers

  1. The key fleet métiers operating across the commercial fisheries local and regional study areas include (in no particular order):
  • UK demersal otter trawlers targeting Nephrops, haddock and mixed demersal species;
  • UK demersal seine targeting haddock and mixed demersal species;
  • UK, Norwegian, Danish, Dutch and German pelagic trawlers targeting herring;
  • UK scallop dredgers targeting king scallop; and
  • UK potting vessels targeting brown crab and lobster.
  1. Volume 3, appendix 12.1 noted potential for a fishery by Danish industrial trawlers targeting sandeel. However, as of 2024, sandeel fishing within the UK EEZ has been prohibited for all UK and non-UK vessels and therefore this receptor is no longer considered appropriate to assess.

12.7.4. Designated Sites

  1. A screening of designated sites in the vicinity of the Array has been carried out and has identified that there were no designated sites relevant to commercial fisheries. The potential for cumulative impacts to arise for commercial fisheries in relation to potential management measures implemented within designated sites is considered in section 12.12.

12.7.5. Future Baseline Scenario

  1. The EIA Regulations require that “a description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment (baseline scenario) and an outline of the likely evolution thereof without implementation of the project as far as natural changes from the baseline scenario can be assessed with reasonable effort, on the basis of the availability of environmental information and scientific knowledge” is included within the Array EIA Report.
  2. If the Array does is not developed, the ‘without development’ future baseline conditions are described within this section.
  3. Commercial fisheries patterns change and fluctuate based on a range of natural and management-controlled factors, including the following:
  • market demand: commercial fishing fleets respond to market demand, which is impacted by a range of factors, including the 2020 to 2021 COVID-19 pandemic;
  • market prices: commercial fishing fleets respond to market prices by focusing effort on higher value target species when prices are high and markets in demand;
  • stock abundance: fluctuation in the biomass of individual species stocks in response to status of the stock, recruitment, natural disturbances (e.g. due to storms, sea temperature etc.), changes in fishing pressure etc.;
  • fisheries management: including new management for specific species where overexploitation has been identified, or changes in Total Allowable Catches (TACs) leading to the relocation of effort, and/or an overall increase/decrease of effort and catches from specific areas. Specifically, the recent prohibition on sandeel fisheries within the UK EEZ portion of the North Sea is noted;
  • environmental management: including the potential restriction of certain fisheries within protected areas;
  • improved efficiency and gear technology: with fishing fleets constantly evolving to reduce operational costs, e.g. by moving from beam trawl to demersal seine. Specifically, the recent prohibition of bottom trawling in thirteen MPAs implemented by the MMO is noted; and
  • sustainability: with seafood buyers more frequently requesting certification of the sustainably of fish and shellfish products, such as the Marine Stewardship Council certification, industry is adapting to improve fisheries management and wider environmental impacts.
  1. The variations and trends in commercial fisheries activity are an important aspect of the baseline assessment and forms the principal reason for considering up to five years of key baseline data. Given the time periods assessed, the future baseline scenario would typically be reflected within the current baseline assessment undertaken. However, in this case, existing baseline data do not capture any potential changes in commercial fisheries activity resulting from the withdrawal of the UK from the EU.
  2. Following withdrawal, the UK and the EU have agreed to a Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), applicable on a provisional basis from 01 January 2021. The TCA sets out fisheries rights and confirms that from 01 January 2021 and during a transition period until 30 June 2026, UK and EU vessels will continue to access respective EEZs, (12 nm to 200 nm) to fish. In this period, EU vessels will also be able to fish in specified parts of UK waters between 6 nm to 12 nm.
  3. Over the five-year transition period, 25% of the EU’s fisheries quota in UK waters will be transferred to the UK; with 15% transferred in year one, most of this quota has already been transferred and distributed across the four nations of the UK. After the five-year transition there will be annual discussions on fisheries opportunities. Across the commercial fisheries regional study area, where UK fisheries primarily target non-quota shellfish species, it is expected that fleets are unlikely to be impacted by quota transfers. It is possible that UK vessels will seek to exploit additional quota-species opportunities, but fishing vessel owners would need to obtain the relevant quota allocation for that specific target species.
  4. Market changes have the potential to impact fishing activity in the commercial fisheries local and regional study areas; including the potential re-establishment of the historic ‘small’ haddock fishery. In terms of future baseline scenarios, with or without the Array, it is therefore possible, that the UK fleet will more heavily target ‘small’ haddock given the potential return of processing and market for this product.

12.7.6. Data Limitations and Assumptions

  1. Limitations of landings data include the spatial size of ICES rectangles, which can under- or over-estimate actual activity across the Array, and care is therefore required when interpreting the data. A further limitation of landings data is the potential under-reporting of landings associated with potting vessels. This may occur as a result of estimating catches (as opposed to accurate weighing) and not reporting catches that fall below the acceptable limit, as defined within the UK Registration of Buyers and Sellers (RBS) (i.e. when purchases of first sale fish direct from a fishing vessel are wholly for private consumption, and less than 30 kg is bought per day). While it is recognised that there is no statutory requirement for owners of vessels 10 m and under to declare their catches, registered buyers are legally required to provide sales notes of all commercially sold fish and shellfish, due to the 2005 Registration of Buyers and Sellers of First-Sale Fish Scheme (RBS legislation) (MMO, 2021). The RBS legislation is applicable to licenced fishing vessels of all lengths and requires name and Port Letters and Numbers (PLN) of the vessel which landed the fish, to be recorded in relation to each purchase. For the <10 m sector, landing statistics are recorded on sales notes provided by the registered buyers (MMO, 2021). Information that may not be formally recorded on the sales note, such as gear and fishing area, is added by coastal staff based on local knowledge of the vessels they administer; for example, from observations of the vessel during inspections at ports, or from air and sea surveillance activities, as well as discussions with the owner and/or operator of the vessel (MMO, 2021).
  2. Lack of recent landings statistics for EU (non-UK) fleets is also recognised as a data limitation; based on the most recent European Commission data call, more recent (i.e. from 2017 onwards) landings data is no longer available by ICES rectangle. Data at a scale of ICES division (i.e. the whole of the North Sea) is less useful to understand fishing activity specific to the area overlapping the Array.
  3. Limitations of VMS data are primarily focused on the coverage being limited to vessels ≥15 m for MMO data. It is important to be aware that where mapped VMS data may appear to show inshore areas as having lower (or no) fishing activity compared with offshore areas, this is not necessarily the case, because VMS data does not include vessels typically operating in inshore areas (i.e. which typically comprises vessels <15 m in length). Specifically, VMS data does not represent activity of vessels under 15 m in length. To assist in mitigating the risk of under-representing smaller inshore vessels, site-specific marine traffic survey data, comprising information on vessel movements gathered by AIS and radar, has been analysed alongside VMS data (detailed in volume 3, appendix 12.1).
  4. Fishing vessel route density data from the EMSA is based on AIS data, representing activity for vessels with AIS (≥15 m in length). A limitation of AIS data is that is does not distinguish between steaming and actively fishing; nevertheless, it provides corroboration for key fishing grounds and insight into transit routes to alternative fishing grounds.
  5. In addition, there is potential for the small haddock fishery detailed in paragraphs 40 and 41 to return to the local study area, however, it is not possible to predict when or the potential scale of any future fishery. This potential future baseline has been taken into consideration within impact assessments in sections 12.11 and 12.12, where applicable, however, it should be noted given the uncertainty around the small haddock future baseline, the assessments which consider the small haddock fishery are presented with a high level of precaution.
  6. Data limitations have been managed by ensuring accurate interpretation of the data and clear understanding of its scope, together with cross-referencing between data sources and consultation with the fishing industry. Data forms only part of the evidence base and all data sources have been contextualised by consultation and professional judgement; therefore the limitations identified are not considered to affect the certainty, or reliability, of the impact assessments in sections 12.11 and 12.12.