15.5. Consultation

  1. Table 15.4   Open ▸ presents a summary of the key issues raised during consultation activities undertaken to date specific to infrastructure and other users for the Array and in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (MD-LOT, 2023) along with how these have these have been considered in the development of this infrastructure and other users Array EIA Report chapter. Further detail is presented within volume 1, chapter 5.
Table 15.4:
Summary of Issues Raised During Consultation and Scoping Opinion Representations Relevant to Infrastructure and Other Users

Table 15.4: Summary of Issues Raised During Consultation and Scoping Opinion Representations Relevant to Infrastructure and Other Users

15.6. Methodology to Inform Baseline

15.6.1. Desktop Study

  1. Information on infrastructure and other users within the infrastructure and other users study areas was collected through a detailed desktop review of existing studies and datasets which are summarised in Table 15.5   Open ▸ .

 

Table 15.5:
Summary of Key Desktop Reports

Table 15.5: Summary of Key Desktop Reports

 

15.6.2. Site-Specific Surveys

  1. No site-specific surveys have been undertaken to inform the EIA for infrastructure and other users. This is because receptor information and data related to this topic can be readily collected through desktop study, consultation with relevant stakeholders, and is currently available due to suitable data throughout the east Scotland region.
  2. Additional data and modelling studies will not be required to characterise the infrastructure and other users baseline for the Array. It should be noted, however, that Vessel Traffic Surveys (VTS) were completed to inform the Navigational Risk Assessment (NRA) in compliance with Marine Guidance Note (MGN) 654 (MCA, 2021). Further information can be found in volume 2, chapter 13 and volume 3, appendix 13.1.

15.7. Baseline Environment

15.7.1. Overview of Baseline Environment

  1. The following sections provide a summary of the infrastructure and other users baseline recreational boating (including sailing and motor cruising), recreational fishing, other recreational activities, offshore energy projects, offshore cables and pipelines, and carbon capture storage within the infrastructure and other users study areas.
  2. Various user groups were scoped out of assessment in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (MD-LOT, 2023) and are therefore not considered further in this chapter. These user groups are as follows:
  • coastal recreational activities (e.g. surfing) user groups;
  • bathing waters;
  • wave and tidal projects;
  • natural gas storage, underground gasification and coal deposits;
  • subsea telecommunication cables;
  • marine disposal sites; and
  • marine aggregate extraction sites.

                        Harbours and marinas

  1. The main ports in proximity to the Array are Aberdeen, Peterhead and Peterhead Bay Marina. The Port of Aberdeen is Scotland’s largest berthage port, accommodating large vessels required for the offshore energy industry and cruise ships (Port of Aberdeen, 2023). Peterhead is one of the UK’s most versatile ports providing berthing facilities at up to 14 m and serving a range of industries including offshore energy industries, fishing and leisure activities. Peterhead Bay Marina is a purpose-built leisure facility catering for local and visiting boatowners. Its easterly position provides an ideal stopover point for vessels heading to and from Scandinavia, and it is also extensively used to access the popular sailing areas along the west coast of Scotland (Peterhead Port Authority, 2023).
  2. The Port of Aberdeen, Peterhead and Peterhead Bay Marina are all located to the north-west of the Array at 81 km, 90 km and 91 km, respectively from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Figure 15.2   Open ▸ ) (NMPi, 2023).
  3. Additional information relating to harbours in the vicinity of the Array is presented in volume 2, chapter 13.

                        Recreational sailing and motor cruising

  1. This section provides an overview of recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising within the vicinity of the Array ( Figure 15.3   Open ▸ ). It should be noted that recreational sailing and motor cruising are considered in the NRA (volume 3, appendix 13.1) as a specific vessel size category, and the infrastructure and other users chapter considers receptors undertaking recreational sailing and motor cruising as an activity only.
  2. There is high recreational activity in the east coast of Scotland. In a 2015 survey of 279 businesses involved in marine recreation and tourism, general recreation, sailing and other forms of boating was reported as the second largest category that the businesses serve (Marine Directorate, 2015).
  3. Boating areas include general sailing areas, racing areas, sailing schools and sailing clubs ( Figure 15.2   Open ▸ ). General boating areas are used for day to day use by all recreational boating users, including dinghies, sailboards, watercraft, and small cruisers. Recreational sailing can be random, with activities subject to weather conditions and in general activities do not involve point to point passage as seen with larger commercial vessels (RYA, 2005). Cruising may include day trips between local ports and often includes a return journey to the home port on the same day. In general, recreational sailing is highly seasonal, with a greater density of vessels found throughout summer, as well as highly diurnal, with boating usually occurring during the daytime (RYA, 2005). Offshore sailing is usually undertaken by yachts in the form of either cruising or organised offshore racing. Inshore sailing is typically undertaken by smaller vessels including dinghies and recreational vessels that are used for either cruising at leisure or racing.
  4. Scotland is a popular destination to learn to sail, gain experience and obtain sailing qualifications. Sailing is predominantly concentrated along the west coast of Scotland and in the Clyde (NMPi, 2023). Sailing area profits along the east coast of Scotland are responsible for 10% of overall revenue while the west coast and Clyde are responsible for 29% and 44% respectively (Scottish Government, 2015). RYA Scotland is a membership organisation that provide facilities for the interests of individuals, clubs, teams and training centres. The organisation also provide sailing in all forms in Scotland, ranging from racing, to sail cruising to powerboating (RYA, 2023). Sailing season typically runs from May to August, with a peak of activity in July. The Aberdeen and Stonehaven Yacht Club (ASYC) holds races on a regular basis from June to November at Stonehaven Bay (ASYC, 2023). The Peterhead Sailing Club (PSC) holds races from May to September at Peterhead Harbour (PSC, 2023). The majority of sailing activity from these clubs is held in coastal regions, approximately 84 km north-west of the Array ( Figure 15.2   Open ▸ ).
  5. Racing areas are generally used at weekends and during holiday periods by sailing, boating and motor cruising users. These areas are under the control of nearby sailing clubs and often contain temporary or permanent marker buoys. Racing routes are often determined on the day of the race and are subject to bespoke racing rules while following conventional collision regulations when additional vessels are in conflict (RYA, 2005). Further details about these collision regulations can be found in volume 2, chapter 13 including Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREG) and International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS). Racing areas are only located in coastal areas and therefore, due to the distance of the Array from the shore, there are no known racing areas in the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area (NMPi, 2023). However, racing areas are subject to change and it should be noted that the coastal areas around the Array are extensively utilised by several recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising activities ( Figure 15.2   Open ▸ ).
  6. The infrastructure and other users area – inner area is not in close proximity to general boating areas associated with RYA Clubs ( Figure 15.2   Open ▸ ). ASYC and PSC are located approximately 84 km north-west and 90 km north-west from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area, respectively. General boating areas are located to the south of Arbroath. The closest general boating area is located at Montrose, approximately 97.1 km west of the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area (NMPi, 2023). Motor cruising areas do not extend to the Array.
  7. AIS data for recreational craft identifies vessels transiting predominantly in a parallel direction to the Scottish coastline ( Figure 15.3   Open ▸ ). The majority of vessel traffic in the Firth of Forth and therefore offshore of North Berwick originates from South Queensferry, Newhaven, Burntisland, Anstruther and Eyemouth. Based on the AIS data, the majority of vessel tracks to the north and north-west of the Array depart or arrive into the major ports of Aberdeen and Peterhead. Vessel tracks are found to very rarely intersect the broad infrastructure and other users study area. Despite this, vessel tracks are seen to reach the vicinity of the broad infrastructure and other users study area from several origins, including north of Fraserburgh (MarineTraffic, 2023) ( Figure 15.3   Open ▸ ).
  8. Two 14-day AIS, Radar and visual observation VTS surveys were undertaken to inform the NRA for the Array in compliance with MGN 654 (MCA, 2021). The dataset from each vessel traffic survey was supplemented with AIS collected from alternate AIS receivers to ensure optimal coverage. A number of vessel tracks recorded during the survey period were classified as temporary (non-routine) and were therefore excluded from the analysis to ensure the data was representative of routine activity. This included survey and research vessels and a vessel associated with the construction of the Seagreen 1 Offshore Wind Farm. Data has been extracted from the VTS reports to inform the recreational vessel activity within a 10 nm buffer study area around the Array. Across both survey periods, recreational vessels were generally recorded in north-west/south-east transit within the 10 nm buffer study area. There were minimal levels of recreational vessels recorded, and all recreational vessels were recorded during the summer period, which aligns with input received during the consultation ( Table 15.4   Open ▸ ). Furthermore, during the consultation it was noted that some recreational vessels transit across the North Sea to Denmark, Norway and Sweden however, it was also noted that recreational vessels do not necessarily follow direct routes and their path can depend on wind direction. A full description of the data recorded during the VTSs for the Array is included in the NRA (volume 3, appendix 13.1).
  9. The NRA presents information on the Array relative to the existing and estimated future navigational activity. During the consultation there was mixed responses as to whether shipping companies would transit through the Array or would seek alternative routes in adverse weather conditions. Recreational vessels, although not part of this consultation, may take similar actions and vessels may transit in inshore locations during adverse weather rather than in the vicinity of the Array. Additional information can be found in volume 2, chapter 13.
  10. Additional information related to recreational sailing, boating and motor cruising is presented in volume 2, chapter 13.


Figure 15.2:
Harbours and Marinas in the Vicinity of the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.2: Harbours and Marinas in the Vicinity of the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


Figure 15.3:
Vessel Intensity in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.3: Vessel Intensity in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


                        Recreational fishing

  1. This section provides an overview of recreational fishing activity within the vicinity of the Array (i.e. fishing for pleasure rather than commercial reasons). It should be noted that recreational fishing vessels are considered in the NRA (volume 3, appendix 13.1) as a specific vessel size category, and the infrastructure and other users chapter considers receptors undertaking recreational fishing as an activity only.
  2. Recreational sea angling occurs along most regions of the Scottish coastline and generates an estimated £140.9 million for the Scottish economy whilst supporting over 3,000 full time equivalent jobs (Scottish Government, 2015). A wide range of species are targeted during recreational sea angling and can include cod Gadus morhua, tope Galeothinus galeus, bass Dicentrarchus labrax, pollock Pollachius pollachius, rays Raja sp., mackerel Scomber scombrus, spurdog Squalus acanthias, salmon Salmo salar and sea trout Salmo trutta (NMPi, 2023).
  3. The east coast of Scotland is a popular coastline for recreational sea anglers fishing from the shore. Peterhead Pier offers good general sea fishing, especially for cod, dab Pleuronectidae sp., saithe Pollachius virens and wrasse Labrus bergylta. The mouth of the River Don in Aberdeenshire holds flatfish Pleuronectiformes sp., cod, whiting Merlangius merlangus and European eel Anguilla anguilla. Gourdon Harbour and Crawton Rock Marks are also popular for cod and saithe. These two popular sites are approximately 90 km north-west of the Array. Various harbours, rock marks and beaches in Arbroath, Montrose, Dundee, St Andrews, Edinburgh and Musselburgh are popular for general fishing (British Sea Fishing, 2023). Sea angling from the shore is more popular in north-east Scotland due to the lack of quality sheltered areas to conduct sea angling from boats (The Scottish Government, 2009).
  4. Recreational sea angling activity by boat is highest near to the coast ( Figure 15.4   Open ▸ ), Specific to the Array, the highest recreational sea angling activity by boat (red area) is approximately 90 km south-west of the Array (NMPi, 2023) ( Figure 15.4   Open ▸ ). Arbroath, Stonehaven and Peterhead are popular launch sites for sea anglers with Arbroath described as a “hot spot” for boat fishing (Scottish Government, 2009). Cod is the most popular targeted species for boat fishing in north-east Scotland, followed by pollock and mackerel (Scottish Government, 2009). There are multiple opportunities for offshore recreational charter fishing with trips leaving from Edinburgh, Dundee, Aberdeen and Peterhead, located to the west of the Array (Charter Boats UK (CBUK), 2023).
  5. Recreational fishing effort is highly seasonal and dependent on specific weather conditions. Additional information pertaining to recreational fishing is presented in volume 2, chapter 12.

                        Other recreational activities

  1. According to the British Marine Federation, the marine leisure industry, including waterborne recreational pursuits, supports nearly 1,800 full time equivalent jobs in Scotland (Scottish Government, 2015). It is noted that the marine leisure industry is supported by a solid local market with contribution to the rural economy, specifically along the west coast of Scotland (Scottish Government, 2015).
  2. The closest designated bathing waters to the Array are located at Stonehaven, approximately 83.9 km west from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. As the Array is approximately 80 km off the east coast of Scotland, impacts to designated bathing waters have been scoped out and are not considered further in this chapter.
  3. Furthermore, coastal and inshore recreational activities such as SCUBA diving, water sports (e.g. canoeing, kayaking, surfing, windsurfing and kite surfing) and beach users are not considered further in this chapter due to the distance between the Array and the shore ( Figure 15.5   Open ▸ ; Figure 15.6   Open ▸ ). The closest charted wreck is located 3 nm from the north-western corner of the Array, at an approximate depth of 67 m below chart datum (CD). Further details of wrecks, including non-charted wrecks is provided in volume 2, chapter 19. There are no offshore diving sites in the vicinity of the Array and therefore, as well as coastal and inshore SCUBA diving, diving further offshore is also scoped out and not considered further in this chapter (UK Diving, 2010).

Figure 15.4:
Sea Angling in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.4: Sea Angling in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


Figure 15.5:
Surfing, Sea Kayaking, Paddleboarding and SCUBA Diving in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.5: Surfing, Sea Kayaking, Paddleboarding and SCUBA Diving in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


Figure 15.6:
Recreational Density in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.6: Recreational Density in the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


                        Offshore energy projects

                        Offshore wind
  1. There are a number of offshore wind projects in proximity to the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Figure 15.7   Open ▸ ). Table 15.6   Open ▸ and Figure 15.7   Open ▸ details the offshore wind farm projects located within 100 km of the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. Figure 15.7   Open ▸ also shows additional wind farms outside of the 100 km buffer but are still in vicinity to the Array and should be considered as part of the baseline environment. Forthwind Methil Demonstration, Methil Demo (also known as Levenmouth Demonstration), NnG Offshore Wind Farm and Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm have been included with their distances as 154.64 km, 154.95 km, 105.05 km and 100.80 km, respectively (Forthwind, 2024; Catapult Offshore Renewable Energy, 2017; Marine Directorate, 2018; Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm Ltd, 2023). The nearest active offshore wind farm is Seagreen 1 Offshore Wind Farm located approximately 51 km west of the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. The Seagreen offshore export cable route is located to the west of the wind Seagreen 1 Offshore Wind Farm and the landfall site is located at Carnoustie.

 

Table 15.6:
Offshore Energy Projects in the Order of their Distance from the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Area – Inner Area

Table 15.6: Offshore Energy Projects in the Order of their Distance from the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Area – Inner Area

 

                        Wave and tidal
  1. The closest wave project is Mocean Energy Ltd, located in Deerness, approximately 248 km from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. The closest tidal project is Orbital Projects 6 Limited, located in Ness of Duncansby, approximately 236 km from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. Wave and tidal projects have therefore not been considered further.
                        Oil and gas
  1. Licences for the exploration and extraction of oil and gas on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) have been offered since 1964 and are granted by the NSTA (formally the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA)). These licences are granted for identified geographical United Kingdom Hydrographic Office (UKHO) areas (blocks and part-blocks) in consecutive rounds.
  2. The Firth of Forth supports oil and gas activities such as those associated with Grangemouth refinery, oil storage and tanker terminals. The Port of Aberdeen is Europe’s premier port for the oil and gas industry, offering a strategic location with direct access to an unrivalled energy supply chain (Port of Aberdeen, 2023). Additionally, the Port of Dundee is ideally placed to serve the North Sea oil and gas industry, providing deep-water berths and extensive landside project areas; the port regularly accommodates projects destined for North Sea and Norwegian sector operations (Forth Ports, 2023).
  3. The infrastructure and other users study area – inner area overlaps with several non-active hydrocarbon licence blocks, including Blocks 27/1, 27/2, 27/7, 27/8, 27/13, 27/14, 27/15, and 28/11.
  4. In October 2022, the NSTA launched the 33rd UK Offshore Licensing Round with 898 blocks or part-blocks on offer across the main producing areas of UKCS. The infrastructure and other users study area – inner area overlaps with three blocks which were on offer in the 33rd UK Offshore Licencing Round – Block 27/3, Block 27/9 and Block 27/10 ( Figure 15.8   Open ▸ ). In October 2023, all three blocks were licenced and are operated by North Sea Natural Resources Ltd (Licence number: P2321) (NSTA, 2023b). Furthermore, there are several other active hydrocarbon licence blocks in close proximity to the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Table 15.7   Open ▸ ).
  5. There is potential for further exploration or development in this area of the North Sea due to the North Sea Natural Resources Ltd existing licence overlapping the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area, and the potential for future UK Offshore Licencing Rounds. The Applicant has been engaging with North Sea Natural Resources Ltd since the ScotWind pre-application stage and following award. Engagement will continue to ensure activities are managed in a manner that facilitates coexistence.
Table 15.7:
Active Hydrocarbon Licence Blocks in the Order of their Distance from the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Area – Inner Area

Table 15.7: Active Hydrocarbon Licence Blocks in the Order of their Distance from the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Area – Inner Area

 

  1. At present no recent exploration, appraisal or production wells have been drilled within the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area (NSTA, 2023a). There is an appraisal well that is currently being drilled by North Sea Natural Resources Ltd in Block 27/5, approximately 19 km north-east of the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. The permits of this operation are scheduled to expire in January 2024 and as such it is expected that no activities will overlap with the application of the Array (DESNZ, 2024).
  2. The closest well to the Array is approximately 4 km to the north-east of the Array, overlapping with the broad infrastructure and other users study area. The well is located within P2321, however, this was drilled, plugged and abandoned in 1970 by Amoco UK Petroleum Limited, and did not encounter any hydrocarbons.
                        Pipelines
  1. There are no oil and gas pipelines located within the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. The closest pipeline (Catcher Gas Export Pipeline) is located approximately 48 km from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Figure 15.8   Open ▸ )
                        Transport
  1. The following services are associated with the oil and gas industry:
  • helicopters: the oil and gas industry rely on helicopters for personnel transfer and emergency evacuation. Helicopter and associated aviation considerations are addressed separately in volume 2, chapter 14; and
  • vessels: the oil and gas industry require supply or support vessels for its operations. Vessels and associated navigational considerations are addressed separately in volume 2, chapter 13.

                        Natural gas storage, underground gasification and coal deposits

  1. There are no natural gas storage sites, underground gasification sites or coal deposits located within the broad infrastructure and other users study area ( Figure 15.8   Open ▸ ). Natural gas storage, underground gasification and coal deposits have therefore not been considered further.

                        Carbon capture storage

  1. Carbon capture and storage is regarded as a potential abatement technology for limiting the impact of climate change. There are no carbon capture storage sites located within the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Figure 15.8   Open ▸ ). The closest carbon capture storage licenced area is in St Fergus approximately 117 km north-west from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. As a National Transmission System (NTS) entry point, St Fergus has been identified as an ideal location for developing low carbon hydrogen due to its delivery point, approved CO2 licence and proximity to UK CO2 storage reservoirs (Pale Blue Dot, 2019). In 2019, a feasibility study took place to scope out the Acorn Hydrogen Project, to be developed in this licenced area in St Fergus. The project will deliver an energy and cost-efficient process for hydrogen production from North Sea Gas, whilst capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions to help prevent climate change. The project would be potentially the first operational low carbon hydrogen plant in Europe, operational before the end of 2025 (Pale Blue Dot, 2019).
  2. The Scottish Ministers regulate the licencing authority of offshore carbon storage within the territorial sea adjacent to Scotland. The NSTA is responsible for regulating offshore carbon storage in all other UK territorial waters and they are the licencing authority that approve, and issue storage permits. It should be noted that, to support the drive to net zero carbon by 2050, they are committed to working with the government, industry and other relevant stakeholders to promote future opportunities for offshore carbon dioxide storage. Therefore, although the current Carbon Dioxide Appraisal and Storage Licencing Round has now closed, there is potential for NSTA to run future licencing rounds in the near future (NSTA, 2023c).

                        Offshore cables, pipelines and subsea communications infrastructure

  1. More than 95% of international telecommunications is through subsea cabling networks, of which approximately 40% of the UK’s active international telecommunication cables are located along the Scottish seabed (Scottish Government, 2015).
  2. The Eastern Link Project (Eastern Link 1) is a new energy link between Scotland and England, comprising a submarine cable route connecting Torness Power Station to Hawthorn Pit to further support the growth of renewable energy (Eastern Link Project, 2021). Additionally, the Scotland to England Eastern Green Link (EGL) 2 is a subsea High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) link between Peterhead, Scotland and North Yorkshire, England (Marine Directorate, 2021). Eastern Link 1 submarine cable is located 111.2 km south-west from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. EGL2 cable is located to the west of the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area at a distance of 23.7 km at the closest point (north-west corner of the Array).
  3. As offshore wind is being developed at an unprecedented scale off the east coast of England and Scotland, the existing high-voltage electricity network will no longer be sufficient. Therefore, the Eastern Green Link (EGL) 3 and Eastern Green Link (EGL) 4 projects are required to increase network capacity and transport new clean green energy to the homes and businesses where it is needed. EGL3 will be a new HVDC electrical link from Peterhead to the south Lincolnshire area. EGL4 will be a new offshore HVDC electrical link from east Scotland to the south Lincolnshire area. Both cables are in their pre-planning stage, with the first stage of consultation completed in early 2024 (National Grid, 2024). The Applicant is conducting ongoing consultation with the developers of EGL3 and EGL4 with respect to the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and the Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure. This will be documented in a separate consent application(s).
  4. A review of additional active and disused subsea cables and pipelines has identified no other active cables or pipelines in the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area (KIS-ORCA, 2024).
  5. There are currently no offshore export cables located in the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area. The closest offshore export cable, the Seagreen 1 Offshore Wind Farm cable route, is located approximately 65 km south-west from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Figure 15.8   Open ▸ ).
  6. There are no active or disused subsea telecommunication cables located within the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area ( Figure 15.8   Open ▸ ) (KIS-ORCA, 2024). The nearest active telecommunications cable is the Cruden Bay Cable, located approximately 71 km north-west from the infrastructure and other users study area – inner area.


Figure 15.7:
Offshore Wind Projects in the Vicinity of the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.7: Offshore Wind Projects in the Vicinity of the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


Figure 15.8:
Offshore Energy Projects, Natural Gas Storage, Underground Gasification, Coal Deposits and Carbon Storage, Offshore Cables, Pipelines and Subsea Communications Infrastructure in the Vicinity of the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas

Figure 15.8: Offshore Energy Projects, Natural Gas Storage, Underground Gasification, Coal Deposits and Carbon Storage, Offshore Cables, Pipelines and Subsea Communications Infrastructure in the Vicinity of the Infrastructure and Other Users Study Areas


15.7.2. Future Baseline Scenario

  1. The EIA Regulations require that a “description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment (baseline scenario) and an outline of the likely evolution thereof without implementation of the project as far as natural changes from the baseline scenario can be assessed with reasonable effort, on the basis of the availability of environmental information and scientific knowledge” is included within the Array EIA Report.
  2. In the event that the Array does not come forward, an assessment of the future baseline conditions has been carried out and is described within this section.
  3. The future baseline scenario for recreational activities is considered unlikely to change substantially from that presented in section 15.7.2, in the absence of the Array. The future baseline scenario for recreational sailing and motor cruising, recreational fishing and other recreational activities is likely to gradually increase in line with population growth in Scotland, however, this is unlikely to represent a substantial change in the short term.
  4. There is potential for significant growth in offshore wind energy within Scotland, with the Scottish Government setting out plans to increase offshore wind capacity to 11 GW of energy installed by 2030. In June 2020, Crown Estate Scotland (CES) launched the first ScotWind Leasing Round for commercial scale offshore wind energy projects within Scottish waters (Scottish Government, 2020a). Further details and an overview of the ScotWind Leasing Round can be found in volume 1, chapter 4. As part of the ScotWind Leasing Round, 20 potential development sites, including Ossian, were awarded Agreements for Lease, with a total generating capacity of just under 27.6 GW. In response to the issues raised in the consultation, the Applicant will ensure ongoing engagement with other developers of ScotWind projects. Other renewable sources, such as wave and tidal energy devices, are in their early research and development stage.
  5. Oil and gas are vital to Scotland and were responsible for nearly 90% of the country’s primary energy in 2015 (Scottish Government, 2021). Although the sector is seen as a critical and integral component to the economy, support for oil and gas programs moving forward will be conditional on the sector’s actions to facilitate sustainable energy transitions for the future (Scottish Government 2021). A route map to the Scottish 2045 target, including funding, and what the funding will be directed towards, was highlighted in the recent Draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan (2023) (Scottish Government, 2023b). The draft plan states that Scotland must limit its dependence on oil and gas and that “Scotland is well positioned to do so in a way that ensures we have sufficient, secure and affordable energy to meet our needs, to support economic growth and to capture sustainable export opportunities” (Scottish Government, 2023b). This plan, which follows on from Scotland’s Offshore Wind Route Map, is currently under construction and is due to be formally published in summer 2024, detailing how Scotland will harness offshore wind, and other renewable generation techniques, to become a “renewable powerhouse” (Scottish Government, 2023b).
  6. The Innovation and Targeted Oil and Gas Decarbonisation (INTOG) allowed developers to apply for seabed rights to develop offshore wind projects that either reduce emissions from the North Sea oil and gas sector (by supplying renewable electricity directly to oil and gas infrastructure (TOG)) or consists of small-scale innovative projects (IN) of 100 MW or less. The distinctive offshore wind leasing is different to any other previously carried out in the UK or in the world (Crown Estate Scotland, 2023). Further details can be found in volume 1, chapter 2. Therefore, as there is a shift towards more utilisation of renewable sources of energy, the baseline environment for oil and gas activity in the vicinity of Array is unlikely to change. However, North Sea Natural Resources Ltd currently hold rights to develop blocks and therefore there may be a possibility of developments in oil and gas blocks in the future.
  7. There is currently potential for marine aggregate extraction to increase in line with the increased demand for aggregate utilisation in gravity bases for marine renewable energy infrastructure and in coastal defence construction (Scottish Government, 2015). Marine aggregate extraction was recently completed as part of the construction of the south harbour expansion in Aberdeen, where dredged materials were re-used as building materials for the harbour. During an assessment undertaken on behalf of the Crown Estate Scotland in 2013, fill areas were identified in the vicinity of the Array that are of potential value for land reclamation use (Scottish Government, 2020b). Aggregate extraction is subject to licencing procedures, under Section 21 of the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010, an application under The Marine Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Amendment) Regulations 2017 and an agreement to dredge the seabed from Crown Estate Scotland (Scottish Government, 2020b). There are currently no active licences for marine aggregate extraction in the Firth of Forth and Firth of Tay marine region and therefore the baseline environment for marine aggregates mining activity in proximity to the Array is unlikely to change.
  8. There were no identified or awarded carbon capture and storage areas in the vicinity of the Array in the previous licencing round. The 21 licences awarded during the previous licencing round could store up to 30 million tonnes of CO2 per year by 2030, approximately 10% of the UK’s annual emissions which were 341.5 million tonnes in 2021 (NSTA, 2023d). It is expected that as many as 100 storage licences may be required to reach net zero targets and the volume of applications received for the first round demonstrated the industry’s desire for future opportunities (NSTA, 2023d). The Array coincides with an area of medium to low priority for future carbon storage with a small area around Blocks 27/2 and 27/3 that has potentially high priority. While there is no overlap with the Array, it should be noted that NSTA state that there is potential for future carbon capture and storage areas to be identified and awarded in proximity to the Array in future carbon capture and storage licencing rounds, however, the timing of these is not known at the time of writing ( Table 15.4   Open ▸ ).
  9. The future baseline scenario for offshore cables, natural gas storage and underground coal gasification is subject to gradual change as new projects and/or sites are further identified.

15.7.3. Data Limitations and Assumptions

  1. The data sources used in this chapter are detailed in Table 15.5   Open ▸ . The data used are the most up to date publicly available information which can be obtained from the applicable data sources cited. The data are therefore limited by what is available and by what has been made available, at the time of writing the Array EIA Report. It is considered that the data employed in the assessment are robust and sufficient for the purposes of the assessment of effects presented.