3.4. Summary of Collision Risk Estimate Results

  1. As can be seen in Table 3.5   Open ▸ at a 99.5% avoidance rate, all migratory waterbird species have a collision estimate of zero, apart from pink-footed goose and eider, which both have a collision estimate of one.
  2. At an avoidance rate of 95%, the majority of migratory waterbirds species have a collision estimate of zero. However, 18 species have a collision estimate of one or more, with pink-footed goose having the highest collision estimate of eight, followed by dunlin with five, lapwing and snipe with four, and eider, oystercatcher and golden plover with three. At the default recommended avoidance rate of 98% by SNH guidance (SNH, 2010), collision estimates for pink-footed goose drop to three birds per annum, dunlin, oystercatcher and snipe drop to two birds per annum, while Svalbard barnacle goose, mallard, eider, golden plover and lapwing estimates drop to one bird per annum.
  3. The Scottish Government published report “Strategic study of collision risk for birds on migration and further development of the stochastic collision risk modelling tool” provides a review of birds on migration in Scottish waters, with all species within the report having a minimum avoidance rate of 98% (Woodward et al., 2023). For a precautionary approach, a mortality estimate based on a 98% avoidance rate has been taken forward to the assessment for all species.

4. References

Alerstam, T., Rosén, M., Bäckman, J., Ericson, P.G.P. and Hellgren, O. (2007). Flight speeds among bird species: allometric and phylogenetic effects. PLoS Biology 5(8): 1656-1662.

Band, W. (2012). Using a collision risk model to assess bird collision risks for offshore windfarms. The Crown Estate Strategic Ornithological Support Services (SOSS) report SOSS-02. http://www.bto.org/science/wetland-and-marine/soss/projects. Original published Sept 2011, extended to deal with flight height distribution data March 2012.

Blew, J., Hoffman, M., Nehls, G. and Hennig, V. (2008). Investigations of the bird collision risk and the responses of harbour porpoises in the offshore wind farms Horns Rev, North Sea, and Nysted, Baltic Sea in Denmark Part I: Birds. Universität Hamburg and BioConsult SH Report.

Johnston, A., Cook, A.S.C.P., Wright, L.J., Humphreys, E.M. and Burton, N.H.K. (2014). Modelling flight heights of marine birds to more accurately assess collision risk with offshore wind turbines. Journal of Applied Ecology, 51, pp. 31-41.

Robinson, R.A. (2005). BirdFacts: profiles of birds occurring in Britain & Ireland (BTO Research Report 407). BTO, Thetford.

SNH (2010). Use of Avoidance Rates in the SNH Wind Farm Collision Risk Model. Scottish Natural Heritage.

Woodward, I., Aebischer, N., Burnell, D., Eaton, M., Frost, T., Hall, C., Stroud, D. and Noble, D. (2020). Population estimates of birds in Great Britain and the United Kingdom. British Birds. 113, pp. 69-104.

Woodward, I.D., Franks, S.E., Bowgen, K., Davies, J.G., Green, R.M.W., Griffin, L.R., Mitchell, C., O’Hanlon, N., Pollock, C., Rees, E.C., Tremlett, C., Wright., L and Cook, A.S.C.P. (2023). Strategic study of collision risk for birds on migration and further development of the stochastic collision risk modelling tool. Published by The Scottish Government. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2023/10/strategic-study-collision-risk-birds-migration-further-development-stochastic-collision-risk-modelling-tool-work-package-1-strategic-review-birds-migration-scottish-waters/documents/strategic-study-collision-risk-birds-migration-further-development-stochastic-collision-risk-modelling-tool-work-package-1-strategic-review-birds-migration-scottish-waters/strategic-study-collision-risk-birds-migration-further-development-stochastic-collision-risk-modelling-tool-work-package-1-strategic-review-birds-migration-scottish-waters/govscot%3Adocument/strategic-study-collision-risk-birds-migration-further-development-stochastic-collision-risk-modelling-tool-work-package-1-strategic-review-birds-migration-scottish-waters.pdf. Accessed on: 01 March 2024.

Wright, L.J., Ross-Smith, V.H., Massimino, D., Dadam, D., Cook, A.S.C.P. and Burton, N.H.K. (2012). Assessing the risk of offshore wind farm development to migratory birds designated as features of UK Special Protection Areas (and other Annex I species). Strategic Ornithological Support Services. Project SOSS-05. BTO Research Report No. 592.

WWT Consulting and MacArthur Green (2014). Strategic assessment of collision risk of Scottish offshore wind farms to migrating birds. [Online]. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-marine-freshwater-science-volume-5-number-12-strategic-assessment. Accessed on: 01 March 2024.