3. Climate Risk and Resilience Scoping

3.1. Methodology

  1. An initial screening exercise has identified the relevant climate change risks on the Array, based on information sourced from the UK CCRA3 (Jaroszweski et al., 2021).
  2. Given the variability in the nature of the potential effects of climate change on the Array, receptors have been identified on a risk-specific basis, whereby all receptors relate to the continued safe and effective operation of the Array. In line with IEMA (2020) guidance, the vulnerability and susceptibility have been considered in determining the severity of risk.
  3. A high level assessment of such risks has been undertaken, considering the hazard, potential severity of effect on the Array and its users, probability of that effect, and level of influence the Array design can have on the risk. The severity of effect score considers the potential consequences of the hazard and the sensitivity of the receptor(s) affected. Each element of the risk assessment has been scored on a scale of one to three, representing low, medium or high, respectively; the scores are then summed to give a combined risk score. Table 3.1   Open ▸ defines each of these terms. A combined risk score of five or more when considering the factors in Table 3.2   Open ▸ has been defined as an impact that would be a significant adverse/beneficial effect on the Array.
  4. The assessment of effects has considered the designed in measures adopted as part of the Array in determining the combined risk score. As detailed above, a score of five or more is assessed as a significant effect which is presented in the ‘significant effect’ column. Should an effect be significant after designed in measures, secondary mitigation is presented where relevant to reduce the residual effect to negligible and not significant in EIA terms.

 

Table 3.1:
Severity, Probability and Influence Factor Definitions (aligning with IEMA (2020) Guidance)

Table 3.1: Severity, Probability and Influence Factor Definitions (aligning with IEMA (2020) Guidance)

 

  1. Table 3.2   Open ▸ shows the climate change risks to the Array that have been identified and the risk scores assigned, following the approach set out in Table 3.1   Open ▸ . Designed in measures have been identified as necessary to accordingly reduce the risk to an acceptable level and mitigate a potential significant effect.

3.2. Climate Change Risk Assessment

  1. The climate change risks to the Array that have been identified and assessed are presented in Table 3.2   Open ▸ . These risks relate to consistently heightened air and sea surface temperatures, MSL rise, changes to rainfall patterns, increased wind speeds, increased wave heights and increased frequency and severity of extreme events such as storms. Designed in measures are identified for each risk.
  2. Considering the designed in measures within Table 3.2   Open ▸ , the potential risk posed to the Array would be reduced to negligible (non-significant level) in EIA terms.
Table 3.2:
Risk Scores for the Array

Table 3.2: Risk Scores for the Array

 

 

4. References

Climate Change Committee (2021). Independent Assessment of Climate Risk. Advice to Government for the UK’s third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3). Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Independent-Assessment-of-UK-Climate-Risk-Advice-to-Govt-for-CCRA3-CCC.pdf. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) (2022). UK Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment: Appendix 1F: Climate and Meteorology. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/623332cd8fa8f504a584cfd1/Appendix_1f_-_Climate___Meteorology.pdf. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

HM Government (2008). Climate Change Act 2008. Available at: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2008/27/contents. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

HM Government. (2022). UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2022. Presented to Parliament pursuant to Section 56 of the Climate Change Act 2008. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/61e54d8f8fa8f505985ef3c7/climate-change-risk-assessment-2022.pdf. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

IEMA (2020). Environmental Impact Assessment Guide to Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation.

IPCC. (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

IPCC (2014). Synthesis Report: Fifth Assessment Report, Topic 2: Future Climate Changes, Risks and Impacts. Available at: Topic 2: Future changes, risks and impacts — IPCC. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

Jaroszweski, D., Wood, R., and Chapman, L. (2021). Infrastructure. In: The Third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report. [Betts, R.A., Haward, A.B., Pearson, K.V. (eds)] Prepared for the Climate Change Committee, London.

Met Office Hadley Centre (2018). UKCP18 Guidance: Representative Concentration Pathways. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-guidance---representative-concentration-pathways.pdf. Accessed on: 20 February 2024.

Palmer, M., Howard, T., Tinker, J., Lowe, J., Bricheno, L., Calvert, D., Edwards, T., Gregory, J., Harris, G., Krijnen, J., Pickering, M., Roberts, C. and Wolf, J. (2018). UKCP18 Marine Report. Available at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-marine-report-updated.pdf. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

Scottish Government (2009). Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. Available at: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp/2009/12/contents. Accessed on: 19 February 2024.

 

[1] RCPs specify concentrations of GHGs that will result in total radiative forcing increasing by a target amount by 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels. Total radiative forcing is the difference between the incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Radiative forcing targets for 2100 have been set at 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 W/m2, and are incorporated into the names of the RCPs; RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Each pathway results in a different range of global mean temperature increases over the 21st century, with a global mean surface temperature increase of 4.3°C by 2100 compared to 1880 under RCP8.5, the high emissions scenario (Met Office Hadley Centre, 2018).