5.5. Climatic Effects

5.5.1. Introduction

  1. This section of this Scoping Report presents the relevant climatic effects assessment of the Array and considers the scope of assessment from the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning of the the Array on climate, including consideration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). The GHG assessment is included as part of a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach, which is a component of the overarching climatic effects assessment. The LCA will also consider the impacts and resilience of the Array to climate change.
  2. The climatic effects assessment, which will consider an in-combination effects assessment, will be produced as a standalone report, as an appendix to the Array EIA Report.

5.5.2. Study Area

  1. The climatic effects assessment will be undertaken at the national level and the study area will be Scotland (applying relevant administrative boundaries). 
  2. Unlike the remainder of this Scoping Report, the climatic effects assessment requires overview across offshore and onshore components of Ossian, which produce energy and transport it to the national grid. However, in the absence of sufficient information surrounding the onshore components (i.e. limited grid connection certainty) at the time of writing, the climatic effects considered in this Scoping Report ( Table 5.12   Open ▸ ) focus on the Array only.

                        Legislative overview

  1. The climate is one of the factors that requires consideration during the EIA development. The following policy and legislation will be considered as part of the climatic effects assessment:
  • Paris Agreement (2015);
  • Climate Change Act (2008);
  • Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009; and
  • The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019.
  1. The policy context and adherence to relevant legislation will be further elaborated on in the climatic effects assessment itself.

5.5.3. Baseline Environment

  1. The current GHG emission levels in Scotland and the wider UK will be presented in the climatic effects assessment as part of the Array EIA Report, and will be informed by the following sources:
  • ‘UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2022 Provisional Figures’ (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS), 2022b);
  • ‘UK Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 2021 Final Figures’ (BEIS, 2022c);
  • ‘Scottish Greenhouse gas Statistics 2020’ (Scottish Government, 2022b); and
  • UK countries’ respective carbon reduction targets that are set out in the relevant legislation.
  1. Input and engagement from stakeholders are encouraged in order to characterise the baseline and assessment criteria further and to inform the methods by which the climatic effects assessment is carried out.

5.5.4. Assessment Methodology

  1. The climatic effects assessment which will form an appendix to the Array EIA Report will present a qualitative assessment as described in this section.

                        Potential impact of the Array on climate

  1. Predicted GHG emissions associated with the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases will be considered in relation to the zero carbon renewable energy produced by the Array as a contribution to the Government’s trajectory towards net zero. The emissions or reduction in emissions over the lifecycle of the Array will be considered in relation to the UK’s carbon budgets, in order to provide a qualitative assessment on how the Array would impact or contribute to the ability to meet these carbon budgets.
  2. The predicted GHG emissions associated with the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases of the Array will be assessed in the climatic effects assessment, with reference to the framework set out in Publicly Available Specification (PAS) 2080:2016 (Carbon Management in Infrastructure).

                        Potential impact of climate on the Array

  1. The following actions will be undertaken as part of the assessment to examine the resilience of the Array to climate change:
  • an examination of Scotland’s current climate area using Met Office data from nearby long running meteorological stations and regional dataset of 30-year averages;
  • a review of any climate vulnerability effects observed in the Climatic Effects Assessment study area;
  • assessment of the future climate in Scotland, using the UK Climate Projections from the Met Office, which provide the most recent assessment of how the climate of the UK may change over the 21st century;
  • an examination of the Array’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change during its construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning;
  • identification of specific mitigation to incorporate into the design, and operation and maintenance processes to reduce the Array’s vulnerability to climate change factors; and
  • an assessment of the residual climate change vulnerability of the Array that, in accordance with appropriate guidance (such as IEMA, 2022), considers the likelihood and consequence of each potential vulnerability.

                        Data sources

  1. A detailed desktop review will be undertaken to characterise the baseline conditions in the climatic effects assessment study area, using the sources provided in paragraph 308. At this stage, it is expected that other data and information sources may be identified during the review as part of the Array EIA Report, such as the final GHG emissions for 2022, which were not available at the time of writing this Scoping Report.

                        Significance criteria

  1. The following significance criteria will be used in the assessment ( Figure 5.3   Open ▸ ):
  • Major Adverse;
  • Moderate Adverse;
  • Minor Adverse;
  • Negligible; and
  • Beneficial.

Figure 5.3:
Different Levels of Significance of Effect plotted against the UK’s Net Zero Compatible Trajectory[6] (Source: IEMA, 2022)

Figure 5.3: Different Levels of Significance of Effect plotted against the UK’s Net Zero Compatible Trajectory[6] (Source: IEMA, 2022)

 

  1. For example, a project will be assessed as ‘major adverse’ if it is not compliant with UK government’s net zero trajectory and approaches a ‘business as usual’ approach. ‘Moderate adverse’ would occur if the adverse effects of the project fall short of fully contributing to the UK’s trajectory to net zero. A ‘minor adverse’ effect would occur if a project were fully in line with the UK’s trajectory towards net zero, and a ‘negligible’ effect would occur if the project provided GHG performance that is ‘well ahead of the curve’ for the trajectory to net zero and has minimal residual GHG emissions. Finally, a ‘beneficial’ project would have effects that substantially exceed the net zero requirements, with a positive climate impact.

                        Summary of effects to be assessed

  1. The proposed climatic effects that will be considered in the assessment are presented in Table 5.12   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.12:
Proposed Climatic Effects to be Considered

Table 5.12: Proposed Climatic Effects to be Considered

 

5.5.5. Designed In Measures

  1. There are no designed in measures specific to the climatic effects assessment, however activities in all stages of the Array will adhere to good industry practice and relevant guidance to minimise climatic effects (such as IEMA, 2022 and IEMA’s GHG Management Hierarchy[7]).

5.5.6. Questions to Consultees