17. Climate Change

17.1. Introduction

  1. This chapter of the Array Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report presents the assessment of the likely significant effects (LSE1) (as per the “EIA Regulations”) on and from climate change as a result of the Ossian Array which is the subject of this application (hereafter referred to as “the Array”). Specifically, this chapter considers the potential impacts of the Array on and from climate change during the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.
  2. Climate change in the context of EIA can be considered broadly in two parts:
  • the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused directly or indirectly by the Array, which may have the potential to contribute to climate change; and
  • the potential effect of climate change on the Array, which could affect the Array directly or could modify its other environmental impacts. Consideration of inter-related effects (IRE) is outlined within section 17.15 of this chapter and an In-Combination Climate Impact (ICCI) assessment is presented in volume 3, appendix 17.3.
  1. The following technical chapters also inform the assessment presented in this chapter:
  • volume 3, appendix 17.1: GHG Technical Report;
  • volume 3, appendix 17.2: Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report; and
  • volume 3, appendix 8.1: Benthic Subtidal Ecology Technical Report.

17.2. Purpose of the Chapter

  1. The Array EIA Report provides the Scottish Ministers, statutory and non-statutory stakeholders with adequate information to determine the LSE1 of the Array on the receiving environment. This is further outlined in volume 1, chapter 1.
  2. The purpose of this climatic effects Array EIA Report chapter is to:
  • present the existing environmental baseline established from desk studies, and consultation with stakeholders;
  • identify any assumptions and limitations encountered in compiling the environmental information;
  • present the environmental impacts on climate change (GHG emissions) arising from the Array, and from climate change (risk and resilience) on the Array, and reach a conclusion on the LSE1 on and from climate change, based on the information gathered and the analysis and assessments undertaken; and
  • highlight any necessary monitoring and/or mitigation measures which are recommended to prevent, reduce or offset the likely significant adverse environmental effects of the Array on and from climate change.

17.3. Study Area

  1. Figure 17.1   Open ▸ illustrates the climatic effects study area for the Array which encompasses the Array (i.e. the area in which the wind turbines and associated infrastructure will be located), in the context of the domestic and international scope as developed on the basis of established Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment (IEMA) guidance (IEMA, 2022) utilised throughout this chapter. Domestic scope considers the local and national policy and targets concerning GHG and climate resilience.
  2. GHG emissions have a global (international) effect rather than directly affecting any specific local receptor. The impact of GHG emissions occurring due to the Array on the global atmospheric concentration of the relevant GHGs, expressed in carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2e), is therefore considered within this assessment.

Figure 17.1:
Climatic Effects Study Area

Figure 17.1: Climatic Effects Study Area


17.4. Policy and Legislative Context

  1. Volume 1, chapter 2 of the Array EIA Report presents the policy and legislation of relevance to renewable energy infrastructure. Policy specifically in relation to climate change is contained in the Scottish National Marine Plan (NMP) (Scottish Government, 2015) and the United Kingdom (UK) Marine Policy Statement (MPS) (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), 2011). Table 17.1   Open ▸ presents a summary of UK and Scottish legislation relevant to climatic effects, with other relevant policy provisions set out in Table 17.2   Open ▸ , Table 17.3   Open ▸ and Table 17.4   Open ▸ .
  2. There are no relevant polices specific to climatic effects in the Sectoral Marine Plan (SMP) for Offshore Wind Energy (Scottish Government, 2020a). As such, this Plan has not been considered further.
  3. Further detail is presented in volume 1, chapter 2.

 

Table 17.1:
Summary of Climate Change Legislation Relevant to Climatic Effects

Table 17.1: Summary of Climate Change Legislation Relevant to Climatic Effects

Table 17.2:
Summary of the Scottish NMP Relevant to Climatic Effects (Scottish Government, 2015)


Table 17.2: Summary of the Scottish NMP Relevant to Climatic Effects (Scottish Government, 2015)


Table 17.3:
Summary of UK MPS Relevant to Climatic Effects (Defra, 2011)

Table 17.3: Summary of UK MPS Relevant to Climatic Effects (Defra, 2011)

 

  1. National climate change policy in relation to renewable energy infrastructure provides overarching guidance for the contribution of the Array towards government targets. These policies are set out in Table 17.4   Open ▸ .

 

Table 17.4:
Summary of National Climate Change Policy Relevant to Climatic Effects

Table 17.4: Summary of National Climate Change Policy Relevant to Climatic Effects

 

17.5. Consultation

  1. Table 17.5   Open ▸ presents a summary of the key issues raised during consultation activities undertaken to date specific to climatic effects for the Array and in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (Marine-Directorate – Licensing Operations Team (MD-LOT), 2023) along with how these have these have been considered in the development of this climatic effects Array EIA Report chapter. Further detail is presented within volume 1, chapter 5.
Table 17.5:
Summary of Issues Raised During Consultation and Scoping Opinion Representations Relevant to Climatic Effects

Table 17.5: Summary of Issues Raised During Consultation and Scoping Opinion Representations Relevant to Climatic Effects

17.6. Methodology to Inform Baseline

  1. Information from desktop studies, including climatic data and GHG emissions data, has been reviewed and analysed to inform this climatic effects baseline.

17.6.1. Relevant Guidance

  1. The main guidance used for the assessment of GHG emissions in EIA is the IEMA guide to ‘Assessing Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Evaluating their Significance’ (IEMA, 2022).
  2. The main guidance document with regard to climate risk and resilience assessment (including IRE assessment) within the context of EIA is the Environmental Impact Assessment Guidance on: Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation (IEMA, 2020).
  3. Additional guidance used for the quantification of GHG emissions includes:
  • the Greenhouse Gas Protocol suite of documents (World Resources Institute (WRI) and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), 2004);
  • PAS 2080:2023 - Carbon Management in Infrastructure (BSI, 2023); and
  • UK Government GHG Conversion Factors for Company Reporting (DESNZ and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), 2023).

17.6.2. Desktop Study

  1. Information on climate change within the climatic effects study area was collected through a detailed desktop review of existing studies and datasets which are summarised in Table 17.6   Open ▸ .
  2. Both the literature review of the reports and subsequent analysis using the datasets were used to characterise the baseline. Full details of the analysis undertaken to develop the climatic effects baseline for the GHG emissions assessment and climate change risk are detailed in volume 3, appendix 17.1 and appendix 17.2 respectively.

 

Table 17.6:
Summary of Key Desktop Reports

Table 17.6: Summary of Key Desktop Reports

17.6.3. Site-Specific Surveys

  1. No site-specific surveys have been undertaken to inform the EIA for climatic effects. This is because the calculation of GHG emissions to inform the GHG assessment is solely a desk-based exercise, informed by the maximum design scenario as described in Table 17.7   Open ▸ . Additionally, the CCRA and future climatic baseline have been informed by climate projections, sourced from relevant literature and guidance. As such, no site-specific surveys specific to climatic effects are required. However, information gathered as part of the benthic survey (volume 3, appendix 8.1, annex A) and geoenvironmental survey (volume 3, appendix 7.1, annex A) has been used to inform the climatic effects baseline, where appropriate.