17.13. Proposed Monitoring

  1. No climatic effects monitoring to test the predictions made within the assessment of LSE1 on and from climate change is considered necessary.
  2. No monitoring as a result of the CEA is proposed.

17.14. Transboundary Effects

  1. All developments which emit GHGs have the potential to impact the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a receptor (this includes manufacturing of materials in other territories), and so may have a transboundary impact on climate change. Consequently, transboundary effects due to other specific international development projects are not individually identified but would be taken into account when considering the impact of the Array by defining the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a high sensitivity receptor. Each country has its own policy and targets concerning carbon and climate change which are intended to limit GHG emissions to acceptable levels within that country’s defined budget and international commitments.

17.15. Inter-Related Effects (and Ecosystem Assessment)

  1. In accordance with IEMA (2020) guidance, an in-combination climate impact (ICCI) assessment has been carried out, and is presented in volume 3, appendix 17.3 of the Array EIA Report.
  2. As noted above, effects from climate change also have the potential to have secondary effects on other receptors and these effects are fully considered in the topic-specific chapters. These receptors and effects are:
  • volume 2, chapter 7:

–           potential changes in the tidal, storm or wind regimes due to the effects of climate change.

  • volume 2, chapters 8 to 11:

–           potential changes in the sensitivity of habitats or species to development impacts in the future due to the effects of climate change (e.g. due to changes to species distribution patterns and/or local, national or international rarity).

  • volume 2, chapter 12:

–           consideration of GHG emissions associated with deviation of ferry and cargo routes.

17.16. Summary of Impacts, Mitigation, Likely Significant Effects and Monitoring

  1. Information on climatic effects within the climatic effects study area was collected through desktop review. This information is summarised in Table 17.22   Open ▸ and Table 17.23   Open ▸ .
  2. Table 17.22   Open ▸ presents a summary of the potential impacts, designed in measures and the conclusion of LSE1 in EIA terms in respect to climatic effects. The impacts assessed include:
  • GHG emissions arising from disturbance to blue carbon stocks during the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array;
  • GHG emissions arising from the manufacturing and installation of the Array;
  • GHG emissions arising from the consumption of materials and activities required to facilitate the operation and maintenance of the Array and estimated abatement of UK Grid emissions;
  • GHG emissions arising from decommissioning works of the Array;
  • effects of climate change on the Array; and
  • net GHG impacts of the Array.
  1. Only those impacts where effects have been concluded to be significant have been further detailed within this summary section.
  2. As set out in paragraph 73, the following factors have been used in the assessment of significance of GHG emissions, in accordance with IEMA (2022) guidance:
  • the magnitude of net GHG emissions as a percentage of UK national carbon budgets (where feasible and where carbon budgets are available); and
  • whether the Array contributes to, and is in line with, the UK’s policy for GHG emissions reductions, where these are consistent with science-based commitments to limit global climate change to an internationally agreed level (as determined by the UK’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement (BEIS, 2022a)).
  1. Overall, it is concluded that there will be the following LSE1 arising from the Array:
  • Operation and maintenance phase: This phase would enable the provision of up to 3.6 GW of additional renewable electricity generation capacity and the displacement of fossil fuel electricity generation. When considering the avoided emissions, in addition to emissions arising from the operation and maintenance of the Array, the operation and maintenance impact results in the order of between 605,756 tCO2e and ‑141,593,914 tCO2e by 2073 (negative values represent avoided emissions). This range represents the displacement of alternative energy generation sources, in order to provide context to the assessment. The magnitude of emissions is unable to be contextualised within the UK Carbon Budgets given the operation and maintenance phase falls outside of such budgets. The Array will produce electricity at an emissions intensity of 4.4 gCO2e/kWh. This is lower than the current grid average (207 gCO2e/kWh), fossil fuel generation (424 gCO2e/kWh) and the Climate Change Committee’s electricity emissions intensity target for 2035 (10 gCO2e/kWh) (Climate Change Committee, 2020). As such, the Array is in line with UK and Scottish climate change policy goals and net zero targets. Considering these factors, this would result in a significant beneficial effect in EIA terms.
  1. All phases: net GHG effects from the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array. This impact considers the total emissions associated with the Array, including the consumption of fuel and materials used throughout the lifetime of the Array, GHG emissions from the disturbance of blue carbon stocks and the displacement of fossil fuels during the operation and maintenance phase. This would result in net GHG emissions of between 10,532,655 tCO2e and ‑131,667,016 tCO2e (negative emissions represent net avoided emissions). It should be noted that emissions have been calculated based on precautionary calculations of material quantities and will be refined throughout the design stage. Additionally, given the operation of the Array would avoid the need for fossil fuel generators through the provision of renewable electricity, the associated avoided emissions would likely be greater than those presented in the conservative case (i.e. when using the long-run marginal projections) resulting in a reduction to the conservative net effect scenario presented above.
  • As such, calculated emissions represent a conservative (reasonable adverse case) scenario. Operation and maintenance and decommissioning emissions have also not taken into account future decarbonisation of UK industry. The magnitude of emissions comprise 0.31% of the Fifth and Sixth UK Carbon Budgets (set out in Table 17.1   Open ▸ ). Within the context of national policy, the purpose of the Array is to provide a source of renewable energy, thereby contributing towards UK and Scottish climate change policy goals and associated renewable energy targets (in particular the respective net zero targets). Considering these factors, this would result in a significant beneficial effect in EIA terms.
  1. In summary, the assessment estimates that the Array will produce approximately 337,457,750 MWh of low carbon electricity during its 35 year operational phase. Over its lifetime the Array will produce an operational emission intensity of 4.4 gCO2e/kWh. The electricity generated by the Project will save between 882,416 and 143,082,086  tCO2e from being emitted into the atmosphere that may otherwise have been emitted from conventional, higher carbon emitting forms of energy generation (i.e. fossil fuels). When emissions resulting from the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array are also included (11,415,070 tCO2e), the Array will save up to 131,667,016 tCO2e from being emitted into the atmosphere over its lifecycle (net emissions). The assessment explains that it will take Ossian two years at the earliest to ‘pay back’ the GHG emissions relating to the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases.
  2. Table 17.23   Open ▸ presents a summary of the potential impacts, designed in measures and the conclusion of LSE1 in EIA terms in respect to cumulative assessment of climatic effects. The cumulative impacts assessed include:
  • Emissions resultant from the Array together with (enabled by) the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure, resulting in lifetime emissions for Ossian.
  1. Overall, it is concluded that there will be the following likely significant cumulative effects from the Array alongside other projects/plans.
  • Operation and maintenance: Cumulative GHG emissions of between 2,409,282 tCO2e and ‑139,790,388 tCO2e, when accounting for avoided emissions during the operation of the Array (enabled by the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure). The range reflects displacement of alternative energy generation sources from a range of future baseline scenarios. The magnitude of emissions is unable to be contextualised within the UK Carbon Budgets given the operation and maintenance phase falls outside of such budgets. The Array, in combination with the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure, will produce electricity at an emissions intensity of 9.8 gCO2e/kWh. This is lower than the current grid average (207 gCO2e/kWh), fossil fuel generation (424 gCO2e/kWh) and the Climate Change Committee’s electricity emissions intensity target for 2035 (10 gCO2e/kWh) (Climate Change Committee, 2020). As such, the Array is in line with UK and Scottish climate change policy goals and net zero targets. Considering these factors, this would result in a significant beneficial effect in EIA terms.
  • Net effects: Lifetime cumulative GHG emissions of between 13,608,654 tCO2e and -128,591,016 tCO2e. This range has been calculated based on a precautionary MDS, which will be refined during final Array design. Furthermore, given the operation of the Array would avoid the need for fossil fuel generators through the provision of renewable electricity, the associated avoided emissions would likely be greater than those presented in the conservative case (i.e. when using the long-run marginal projections) resulting in a reduction to the conservative net effect scenario presented above. The assessment explains that it will take Ossian three years at the earliest to ‘pay back’ the GHG emissions relating to the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phase emissions from both the Array and associated transmission infrastructure. This figure has been calculated using precautionary calculations of material quantities in the absence of detailed design information. Operation and maintenance and decommissioning emissions have also not taken into account future decarbonisation of UK industry. The magnitude of emissions comprise 0.35% of the UK’s carbon budget over this period. Within the context of national policy, the purpose of the Array is to provide a source of renewable energy, thereby contributing towards UK and Scottish climate change policy goals and associated renewable energy targets (in particular the respective net zero targets). Considering these factors, this would result in a significant beneficial effect in EIA terms.
  1. All developments which emit GHGs have the potential to impact the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a receptor (this includes manufacturing of materials in other territories), and so may have a transboundary impact on climate change. Consequently, transboundary effects due to other specific international development projects are not individually identified but would be taken into account when considering the impact of the Array by defining the atmospheric mass of GHGs as a high sensitivity receptor. Each country has its own policy and targets concerning carbon and climate change which are intended to limit GHG emissions to acceptable levels within that County’s defined budget and international commitments.

Table 17.22:
Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Secondary Mitigation and Monitoring

Table 17.22: Summary of Likely Significant Environmental Effects, Secondary Mitigation and Monitoring

 

Table 17.23:
Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring

Table 17.23: Summary of Likely Significant Cumulative Environment Effects, Mitigation and Monitoring