4. Future Baseline

  1. Commercial fisheries patterns change and fluctuate based on a range of natural and management-controlled factors. These factors include the following:
  • Market demand: commercial fishing fleets respond to market demand, which is impacted by a range of factors, including the 2020 to 2021 COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Market prices: commercial fishing fleets respond to market prices by focusing effort on higher value target species when prices are high, and markets are in demand.
  • Stock abundance: fluctuation in the biomass of individual species stocks in response to the status of the stock, recruitment, natural disturbances (e.g. due to storms, sea temperature etc.), changes in fishing pressure etc.
  • Fisheries management: including new management for specific species where overexploitation has been identified, or changes in TACs leading to the relocation of effort, and/or an overall increase/decrease of effort and catches from specific areas.
  • Environmental management: including the potential restriction of certain fisheries within protected areas.
  • Improved efficiency and gear technology: with fishing fleets constantly evolving to reduce operational costs, e.g. by moving from beam trawl to demersal seine.
  • Sustainability: with seafood buyers more frequently requesting certification of the sustainably of fish and shellfish products, such as the Marine Stewardship Council certification, industry is adapting to improve fisheries management and wider environmental impacts.
  1. The variations and trends in commercial fisheries activity are an important aspect of the baseline assessment and forms the principal reason for considering up to five years of key baseline data. Given the time periods assessed, the future baseline scenario would typically be reflected within the current baseline assessment undertaken. However, in this case, existing baseline data do not capture any potential changes in commercial fisheries activity resulting from the withdrawal of the UK from the EU.
  2. Following withdrawal, the UK and the EU have agreed to a Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), applicable on a provisional basis from 01 January 2021. The TCA sets out fisheries rights and confirms that from 01 January 2021 and during a transition period until 30 June 2026, UK and EU vessels will continue to access respective EEZs (12 nm to 200 nm) to fish. In this period, EU vessels will also be able to fish in specified parts of UK waters between 6 nm to 12 nm.
  3. Twenty five percent of the EU's fisheries quota in UK waters will be transferred to the UK over the five year transition period; most of this quota has already been transferred and distributed across the four nations of the UK. After the five year transition there will be annual discussions on fisheries opportunities. Across the commercial fisheries regional study area, where UK fisheries primarily target non-quota shellfish species, it is expected that fleets are unlikely to be impacted by quota transfers. It is possible that UK vessels will seek to exploit additional quota-species opportunities, but vessels would need to access quota holdings. There has been limited change in the overall UK share for plaice and sole, the key fisheries targeted by non-UK vessels, notably Dutch and Belgian beam trawlers.
  4. Market changes have the potential to impact fishing activity in the commercial fisheries regional study area; some of the catch landed by UK vessels is exported to EU markets (e.g. brown crab) and potential tariff/non-tariff barriers could affect which species are targeted and to what extent.

5. Summary

  1. This technical report has presented commercial fisheries activity data for the following countries: UK, Norway, Denmark, The Netherlands and France. Based on quota allocations and landing statistics it is understood that vessels registered to other countries do not operate across the commercial fisheries local and regional study areas.
  2. The key fleet métiers operating across the commercial fisheries local and regional study areas include (in no particular order):
  • UK, Norwegian, Danish, Dutch and German pelagic trawlers targeting herring;
  • UK demersal otter trawlers targeting Nephrops, haddock and mixed demersal species;
  • UK demersal seine targeting haddock and mixed demersal species;
  • UK scallop dredgers targeting king scallop;
  • UK potting vessels targeting brown crab and lobster; and
  • Danish industrial trawlers targeting sandeel.
  1. This technical report reviewed all datasets available to characterise the commercial fisheries activity across the commercial fisheries local and regional study areas and wider central North Sea.
  2. Given the range of datasets assessed and the comprehensive analysis undertaken, it is considered that this technical report is adequate for the purposes of an EIA.