Appendix 11 Marine Archaeology – Baseline EnvironmentMarine Archaeology – Baseline Environment
11.1. Desktop Study
- This section outlines the initial desk-based review of literature and data sources for marine archaeology to support this Scoping Report ( Apx Table 11.1 Open ▸ ).
Apx Table 11.1: Summary of Key Data Sources
11.2. Site-specific Survey Data
- A geophysical survey was undertaken within the site boundary. Multibeam Echo Sounder (MBES) Bathymetry, Sidescan Sonar (SSS), Magnetometer, Sub-Bottom Profiler (SBP), two-dimensional Ultra-High Resolution Seismic (2D UHRS) data were collected by Ocean Infinity between March and July 2022 (Ocean Infinity, 2022a; Ocean Infinity, 2022b). The purpose of the survey was to collect baseline information to inform this Scoping Report and the Array Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report regarding seafloor conditions, subsurface interpretation and obstructions. The data collected varied in specification however is considered comparable and appropriate to allow for the characterisation of the marine archaeological potential in the vicinity of the Array.
- Main lines were acquired every 200 m and crosslines every 1 km. The geophysical survey was divided into two phases: a sparse survey (phase 1A) based on a 1 km x 1 km grid, and a dense survey (phase 1B) which includes the remaining 200 m spaced lines excluded previously in phase 1A. This marine archaeology baseline section is based upon the results of the phase 1A survey.
- The data was collected to a specification appropriate to achieve the following interpretation requirements:
- magnetometer: identification of contacts > 5 nT (phase 1A), and >10 nT (phase 1b);
- SSS: ensonfication of contacts > 0.5 m;
- SBP: penetration 5 m to 10 m; and
- MBES: ensonification of contacts < 1.0m.
- All data were collected and referenced relative to the WGS84 datum and UTM30N projection. Details of the survey specification of the offshore geophysical survey are presented within Apx Table 11.2 Open ▸ .
Apx Table 11.2: Offshore Geophysical Survey Specification
11.3. Baseline Characterisation
11.3.1 Submerged prehistoric archaeology
- The area of the marine archaeology study area (section 7.4, Figure 7.7 Open ▸ ) was submerged during the late glacial/early Holocene. Prior to this, the area was covered in a succession of ice sheets. During periods of glaciation the area would have been uninhabitable, however, during inter-glacial periods when at times the seabed would have formed dry land, there is a potential for periglacial occupation. The edges of channels and floodplains are likely to have the highest potential for the survival of archaeological material, as this is where prehistoric ground surfaces and organic material are most likely to survive. These deposits often lie beneath relatively thin layers of seafloor sediment and therefore may be vulnerable to exposure (BEIS, 2022f).
- Brooks et al. (2011) have produced reconstructed palaeogeography maps to understand the potential changes in palaeocoastlines of the UK and north-western Europe. This modelling predicted that the majority of the marine archaeology study area has been submerged for at least 20,000 years Before Present (BP), however, there was a small island, or archipelago of islands, subaerially exposed in the south-west corner of the marine archaeology study area, which is likely to have been exposed until approximately 10,000 years ago BP, after which it was submerged (Brooks et al., 2011; EMODnet, 2022). It is unlikely that any archaeological material from this period will have survived due to the effects of repeated glaciations, marine transgressions and associated fluvial activity (BEIS, 2022f).
- In the wider context, the marine archaeology study area is located within Regional Sea 1 (BEIS, 2022f) which experienced relatively early transgression compared to more southerly areas (i.e. Regional Sea 2). In addition, the strong current conditions in Regional Sea 1, the exposure to North Atlantic storms and the thin sediment cover in many places also make some areas of the shelf likely poor prospects for the survival of prehistoric deposits in situ. No submerged prehistoric landscapes have been identified within the site boundary to date. Additionally, there is no evidence of peat or organic sediments within the site boundary, therefore, this suggests that there is low potential for paleo-landscapes, and any associated paleoenvironmental or archaeological material to be present within the site boundary. However, it is possible that isolated and residual finds may be found within deeply buried glacial deposits.
11.3.2 Maritime and aviation archaeology
- The UK has a long maritime history since at least the Mesolithic period. Wreck sites are a common feature around the entirety of the UK coast but specific knowledge of the maritime archaeology of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) is very low.
- The chronological periods and their corresponding date ranges that are considered in this Scoping Report are noted in Apx Table 11.3 Open ▸ . Dates are referred to as BC (Before Christ), or AD (Anno Domini).
Apx Table 11.3: Overview of Scottish Archaeological Chronology
- No evidence of Palaeolithic maritime archaeology pre-dating the Devensian glacial maximum has been found in the UK due to glaciations, marine transgressions and fluvial activity. However, this lack of evidence does not infer that there was of a lack of maritime activity during the Palaeolithic around the UK. It is hypothesised that simple watercraft may have been used during this period, such as hide-covered logs or boat rafts, for coastal journeys or fishing (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- During the Neolithic and Bronze Age periods, evidence begins to appear to suggest the advent of maritime trade. In the UK, the only physical evidence for Neolithic maritime watercraft is logboats. However, it is hypothesised that the development of more complex logboats used at sea and, possibly, simple plank boats in inland waters may have occurred during the Neolithic period. No evidence for these craft has yet been found to date, however. Evidence from the Bronze Age, suggests that hide boats and sewn plank boats were being developed and used within the UK (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- During the Iron Age and Roman periods, evidence of more substantial maritime sailing and trading vessels being used within the UK was apparent. Trading between ports in the south of the UK and continental Europe (France and the Mediterranean) was recorded during these periods. Evidence of iron anchors from the 1st and 2nd-3rd centuries AD have been found in waters in the south-west of the UK, as well as logboats, plank-built boats and larger sea-going vessels (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- During the Early Medieval and Medieval periods, boat development became more local after the withdrawal of the Romans in the 5th century AD. Maritime craft from this period was influenced by Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian settlers, with introduction of Scandinavian-style clinker-boats. Maritime trading routes between the UK and continental Europe expanded during the Medieval period, with the emergence of trading confederations, such as the Hanseatic League in North Germany and the Baltic. This expansion of shipping around UK waters also presented greater chances for maritime casualties. Throughout this period developments in shipbuilding technology improved the military function of ships, with guns and naval weapons being introduced on vessels. The carvel technique of flush planking in larger merchant vessels became more common in the 15th century AD. During the late medieval period the development of reliable navigation techniques and aids allowed ship owners to plan long oceanic voyages and travel greater distances, with vessels from Europe travelling first to the New World and to the Far East during this period. There is potential for remains of shipwrecks from this period to be present within the UKCS and are generally of high archaeological importance (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- After 1500 AD, global exploration and technological innovation continued. Cannons were used extensively on naval vessels, as well as some merchant vessels, and are often the most obvious indication of the presence of a wreck. By the mid-19th century AD, the advent of the steam engine, iron hulls and the screw propeller drove major transformations on ships and shipping, resulting in a huge increase in the volume of shipping traffic in the UKCS. Recording of losses became more accurate and complete in the 18th and 19th centuries AD, therefore, the ‘known’ archaeological resource across the extent of the UKCS for this period is greater than for earlier periods (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- The maritime archaeological record of the period from 1914 to the present is dominated by World Wars I and II. Warships, submarines, U-boats, merchant vessels (including cargo vessels, troopships and hospital ships), military and other aircraft, and smaller vessels and craft were lost during the World Wars, with new technologies of the submarine, torpedo, mine and aircraft mostly responsible for the huge toll in shipping losses, as well as the active destruction of shipping by all sides. Boats and ships continued to enter the archaeological record during the inter-war period and after 1945. Ships and boats are less numerous and prone to disaster since this period, however, the overall volume of trade by sea continues to be very high. The loss of big vessels continues to gain attention in the present day, particularly due to the threat of pollution, however, losses amongst smaller vessels such as fishing vessels tend to gain less notice (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- The survival of archaeological evidence of maritime activity within the UKCS is variable, but early remains have been found in relatively good condition. ‘Known’ maritime archaeology is skewed in favour of more recent wrecks due to better record keeping, more robust construction materials and methods, and shorter time on the seabed. However, there is potential for very ancient wrecks or materials to survive in archaeological contexts within the UKCS, and these sites are likely to be of substantial significance (Wessex Archaeology, 2009).
- ‘Known’ archaeological features within the site boundary are as follows:
- no protected areas or statutory designations in relation to submerged landscapes within the limits of the site boundary;
- no designated wrecks are recorded within the limits of the site boundary;
- no wrecks or obstructions lie within the site boundary or marine archaeology study area as recorded by the UKHO ( Apx Figure 11.1 Open ▸ );
- two wrecks were found during the initial geophysical survey ( Apx Table 11.5 Open ▸ ; Apx Figure 11.2 Open ▸ ); however, these are not recorded by the UKHO. One wreck (named as ‘Contact S_NM_B_0001’ within the geophysical survey report (Ocean Infinity, 2022b)) has been entered into the Canmore National Records of the Historic Environment (NRHE) database with ID number: 372595. The second wreck will be entered in to the NRHE database in the future. It is not known at present if either of these identified wrecks may align with the recorded losses noted below. A marine archaeology assessment of the geophysical data will be completed to gain further understanding of these wrecks and identify any further anomalies of archaeological interest.
- Recorded losses are maritime and aviation losses that are known to have occurred in the vicinity but to which no specific location can be attributed as positional data of these records is unreliable. However, they do provide information on the archaeological potential of the area. Recorded losses may be attributed to unknown anomalies identified by the geophysical survey or they may be positioned outside the marine archaeology study area (BEIS, 2022f). A total of four recorded losses are attributed to coordinates within the marine archaeology study area as recorded by the NRHE: Svein Jarl, Titan, Duva and Scottish Queen (Canmore, 2022; Apx Table 11.4 Open ▸ ).
Apx Table 11.4: Recorded Losses Attributed to Coordinates Within the Marine Archaeology Study Area (Canmore, 2022)
- The recorded maritime losses listed above are all iron and steel vessels dating from the 19th and 20th centuries. The prevalence of iron and steel wrecks in the record have the potential to mask the presence of earlier shipwrecks, which are of potentially greater archaeological interest. Wooden shipwrecks tend to be older and smaller, and tend to have carried less ferrous material, compared to iron and steel shipwrecks. They are less likely to be located by geophysical survey as wooden shipwrecks tend to degrade and break up more quickly than iron and steel wrecks and are therefore more likely to be scattered, dispersed, and have a generally lower physical profile on the seabed.
- These earlier wrecks are potentially the most archaeologically important and there will be an ongoing recognition of the potential to encounter currently unknown or unrecorded shipwrecks, and mechanisms put in place to ensure the prompt reporting and avoidance of undue damage to any such discoveries.
Apx Table 11.5: Gazetteer of Maritime Archaeology Identified within the Initial Geophysical Survey (Ocean Infinity, 2022b)
Apx Figure 11.1: Position of UKHO Records in the Vicinity of the Site Boundary
Apx Figure 11.2: Location of Maritime Archaeology Identified Within the Initial Geophysical Survey
Appendix 12 Offshore Socio-Economics – Baseline EnvironmentOffshore Socio-Economics – Baseline Environment
12.1. Desktop Study
12.1.1 Socio-Economics Baseline
- The socio-economic baseline assessment will consider relevant economic indicators, such as population, economic activity and industrial structure, for the local socio-economic study area(s), which are expected to consist of a number of local authorities, as well as Scotland and the UK. As the epicentres of impact (i.e. ports used in construction and operation) are not known at this time, no local socio-economic study area(s) have been identified and therefore no baseline assessment of the local area has been carried out at this stage. The socio-economic baseline therefore focuses on the Scottish and UK economies. The local study area(s) socio-economic baseline will be undertaken based on the same indicators as has been used for the Scottish and UK economies.
- The following data sources have been considered as part of the socio-economic baseline:
- Mid-2020 Population Estimates Scotland (National Records of Scotland, 2021a);
- 2020-based Principal Population Projections (National Records of Scotland, 2021b);
- Principal Population Projections 2020-based (ONS, 2022b);
- Mid-Year Population Estimates UK 2020 (ONS, 2022a);
- Business Register and Employment Survey (ONS, 2022c);
- Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2021/22 (Scottish Government, 2022j);
- People Skills Survey 2021-2026 (Offshore Wind Industry Council, 2021); and
- Offshore Wind O&M a £9 billion per year opportunity by 2030 for the UK to seize (Offshore Renewable Energy Catapult, 2020).
12.1.2 Strategic Baseline
- The strategic socio-economic baseline, which considers a number of government policies and how they relate to the Array, will be augmented with local strategies when the local socio-economic area(s) have been identified. Socio-economic strategic policy documents considered include:
- The Offshore Wind Sector Deal (UK Government, 2020);
- National Performance Framework (Scottish Government, 2018b);
- National Strategy for Economic Transformation (Scottish Government, 2022k); and
- Offshore Wind Policy Statement (Scottish Government, 2020).
12.2. Site-specific Survey Data
- No site-specific survey has been undertaken to inform this EIA Scoping Report for socio-economics nor will a site-specific survey be undertaken to support the development of the Array EIA Report, as sufficient desktop data is available to inform the baseline from which the potential impacts can be assessed.
12.3. Baseline Characterisation
12.3.1 Socio-Economic Baseline
Population
- In 2020, Scotland had a population of almost 5.5 million ( Apx Table 12.1 Open ▸ ), around 8.1% of the UK population of 67.1 million. The share of the working age population (16 to 64) was higher in Scotland at 63.9%, compared to the UK (62.4%). Compared with the UK, Scotland has a lower proportion of younger people (0 to 15) as a share of the population and a higher proportion of older people (65+).
Apx Table 12.1 Open ▸ : Population by Age Group, 2020
Source: National Records of Scotland (2021a), Mid-2020 Population Estimates Scotland and ONS (2022a), Mid-Year Population Estimates UK 2020.
- Between 2020 and 2045, the population of Scotland is projected to decrease by 1.5% ( Apx Table 12.2 Open ▸ ), while the population of the UK is expected to grow by 5.8%. The working age Scottish population (16 to 64) is projected to fall by over 190,000 (-5%), while in the UK it is expected to increase by almost 600,000 (+1%).
Apx Table 12.2 Open ▸ : Population Projections, 2020-2045
Source: National Records of Scotland (2021b), 2020-based Principal Population Projections and (ONS, 2021), Principal Population Projections 2020-based.
Employment
- In 2020, there were 2.5 million jobs in the Scottish economy ( Apx Table 12.3 Open ▸ ), representing around 8.3% of employment in the UK economy (30.5 million jobs).
- During the development stage, which includes project management, project design and environmental impact assessment, there will be opportunities for the professional, scientific and technical activities sectors, which employ 178,500 people in Scotland (6.7% of UK employment in these sectors). Employment in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sectors in Scotland (20,500) is 15.1% of UK employment, reflecting the proportionately larger renewable energy sector in Scotland. This may also indicate that the Scottish professional services sector has experience in supporting the renewable energy sector.
- The sectors most relevant to the construction phase of the Array include manufacturing sectors, which have total employment in Scotland of 177,500 (7.6% of UK manufacturing employment) and construction (130,000, 8.7% of UK construction employment). Scotland’s high share employment in mining and quarrying sectors, which employ 28,000 people (56.6% of UK employment), reflects strengths in offshore oil and gas (which are included in this category in the data), relevant for the development and construction phases. Scottish employment in transportation and storage of 110,500 (7.2% of UK employment), will also be relevant since the Array will require port infrastructure during the construction and operation and maintenance phases.
Apx Table 12.3 Open ▸ : Employment in Selected Industries, 2020
Source: ONS (2022b), Business Register and Employment Survey 2020. Note, totals do not sum as only selected industries shown.
Economy
- The Array will contribute to the Scottish and UK economies during all phases, and its contribution will be benchmarked against Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in order to assess the magnitude of impact. Total GDP in the fiscal year 2021/22 (Scottish Government, 2022j) was:
- Scotland: £176 billion; and
- UK: £2,376 billion.
Socio-economic baseline summary
- The Scottish population is expected to decrease over time, particularly the working age population, and so requires new drivers of economic growth. The offshore renewables sector represents an opportunity of substantial scale for the Scottish economy, and the wider UK economy.
- Baseline characterisation of the local socio-economic study area(s) will be undertaken when the ports that will be used during the construction and operation are known.
12.3.2 Strategic Baseline
UK Offshore Wind Sector Deal
- The Offshore Wind Sector Deal (UK Government, 2020), sets out the UK Government’s aim to support the development of offshore wind energy generation in the UK, making the sector a significant part of a low-cost, low-carbon flexible grid system. The Deal also emphasises how UK companies can benefit from the opportunities presented by the expansion of the offshore wind sector, enhancing the competitiveness of UK firms internationally and sustaining the UK’s role as a global leader in offshore wind generation.
- The UK Government (2020) highlights that some estimates suggest that offshore wind capacity globally will grow by 17% annually from 22 GW to 154 GW in 2030, which could mean the UK contributing up to 40GW of generating capacity. The UK Government aims to reach this capacity in a sustainable, timely way, and commits to working with the offshore wind sector and wider stakeholders to deliver the expansion of the sector, addressing strategic deployment issues, transmission issues and environmental impacts. Reaching this level of capacity could support up to 27,000 jobs in the UK, while the sector will work with government, existing institutions, and universities to increase job mobility between energy sectors, increase apprenticeship opportunities and coordinate local efforts, further developing the benefits to the UK economy.
- The UK Government has also highlighted the role that offshore wind can play in the transition to a net zero economy by 2050 (UK Government, 2021). Based on existing technology, electrification remains the main route to reach carbon neutrality. To make this change possible, the supply of electricity will need to increase significantly to match demand and the Government aims to decarbonise the power by 2035. This also has the potential to create many new green jobs, as part of the UK Government’s Build Back Greener agenda.
National Performance Framework
- Scotland's National Performance Framework (NPF) (Scottish Government, 2018) sets out the ambitions of the Scottish Government across a range of economic, social and environmental factors. The Framework is designed to give a rounded view of economic performance and progress towards achieving sustainable and inclusive economic growth and wellbeing across Scotland.
- The aims for Scotland set out in the NPF are to:
- Create a more successful country;
- Give opportunities to all people living in Scotland;
- Increase the wellbeing of people living in Scotland;
- Create sustainable and inclusive growth; and
- Reduce inequalities and give equal importance to economic, environmental and social progress.
National Strategy for Economic Transformation
- In March 2022, the Scottish Government published the National Strategy for Economic Transformation (Scottish Government, 2022k), which set out its ambition for Scotland's economy over the next 10 years. The Scottish Government's vision is to create a wellbeing economy where society thrives across economic, social and environment dimensions, which delivers prosperity for all Scotland's people and places. Of particular importance is the ambition to be greener, with a just transition to net zero, a nature-positive economy and a rebuilding of natural capital.
- A key longer-term challenge identified in the strategy is to address deep-seated regional inequality, which includes in rural and island areas that face problems such as a falling labour supply, poorer access to infrastructure and housing. The transition to net zero presents a further challenge of delivering positive employment, revenue and community benefits.
- To deliver its vision and address the economy's challenges, five programmes of action have been identified (with a sixth priority of creating a culture of delivery), including:
- Establishing Scotland as a world-class entrepreneurial nation.
- Strengthening Scotland's position in new markets and industries, generating new, well-paid jobs from a just transition to net zero.
- Making Scotland's businesses, industries, regions, communities and public services more productive and innovative.
- Ensuring that people have the skills they need to meet the demands of the economy, and that employers invest in their skilled employees.
- Reorienting the economy towards wellbeing and fair work.
- The strategy notes that Scotland has substantial energy potential, with a quarter of Europe's wind potential, and that it has developed a growing green industrial base. This provides a strong foundation for securing new market opportunities arising from the transition to net zero. Renewable energy also has a role to play in supporting productive businesses and regions across Scotland.
Offshore Wind Policy Statement
- The Scottish Government's 2020 Offshore Wind Policy Statement (Scottish Government, 2020) highlights the substantial potential of Scotland's waters for offshore wind and the importance of the sector in the transition to net zero.
- When the policy statement was published in October 2020, the ScotWind leasing round was expected to lead to an additional 11 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, generating substantial economic impacts in Scotland's offshore wind supply chain. In contrast, the ScotWind leasing round is now expected to lead to an additional 25 GW of offshore wind capacity (Crown Estate Scotland, 2022c), with particular economic opportunities related to floating offshore.
Strategic baseline summary
- The UK Government aims to ensure that UK companies can benefit from the opportunities presented by the expansion of the offshore wind sector, enhancing the competitiveness of UK firms internationally and sustaining the UK’s role as a global leader in offshore wind generation. Offshore wind is also expected to play a significant role in the transition to net zero, creating green jobs as part of the Build Back Greener agenda.
- The Scottish Government, as outlined in its Offshore Wind Policy Statement, expects offshore wind projects to play an important role in transitioning to a net zero economy, while contributing to sustainable economic growth with new, well-paid jobs. In particular, there are expected to be opportunities in Scotland related to offshore wind projects with floating turbine foundations, like the Array.