18.5. Consultation

12. Stakeholder consultation to inform this socio-economics chapter focused on the economic development agencies and local authorities in the areas that are most likely to have local epicentres of impact, e.g. construction ports, operation and maintenance ports. These are likely to be on the east coast of Scotland.
13. Consideration was given to the Marine Analytical Unit’s (MAU) general advice on assessing the socio-economic impact of offshore developments (Marine Analytical Unit, 2022), specifically the advice to consult with stakeholders in relevant communities to identify the economic and social impacts. Given that neither the construction port nor the operation and maintenance port are yet known, and that there are a number of potential ports that could be selected, it was not possible to identify specific relevant communities that could be consulted at this stage. However, this assessment does consider both potential economic and potential social impacts in the areas around the construction port and the operation and maintenance port (albeit that the locations are not yet known) and the stakeholder engagement included economic development and local authority organisations covering the most likely locations on the east coast of Scotland.
14. The organisations included in the socio-economic stakeholder consultation were:

• Aberdeen City Council (Economic Development);
• Aberdeenshire Council (Economic Development);
• Angus Council (Economic Development);
• Dundee City Council (Economic Development);
• Energy Transition Zone Ltd;
• Forth Ports (Port of Dundee);
• Highland Council (Economic Development);
• Highlands and Islands Enterprise;
• Scottish Enterprise; and
• University of the Highlands and lslands.

15. A letter was written to each stakeholder, summarising the proposed approach to assessing socio-economic impacts, including the economic and social impacts to be considered. Comments were sought on the approach, the impacts to be included and any comments on the socio-economic impacts particularly relevant to the geographic areas that stakeholder organisations are responsible. Responses received have been noted in Table 18.5   Open ▸ .
16. Table 18.5   Open ▸ presents a summary of the key issues raised during consultation activities undertaken to date specific to socio-economics for the Array and in the Ossian Array Scoping Opinion (MD-LOT, 2023) along with how these have been considered in the development of this socio-economics chapter. Further detail is presented within volume 1, chapter 5.

Table 18.5: Summary of Issues Raised During Consultation and Scoping Opinion Representations Relevant to Socio-Economics

18.6. Methodology to Inform Baseline

18.6.1. Desktop Study

17. Information on socio-economic baseline conditions within the socio-economic study areas was collected through a detailed desktop review of existing studies and datasets which are summarised in Table 18.6   Open ▸ .
18. The methodology for establishing the baseline involved a broad desktop study. This study was aimed at evaluating and assessing the key datasets and statistics relevant to the socio-economic assessment and supply chain capabilities in the UK and Scotland. It focused on various key statistics, including general population demographics, age group distribution, overall employment levels, and specific employment figures within industries linked to the offshore sector.

Table 18.6: Summary of Key Desktop Reports

18.6.2. Site-Specific Surveys

19. No site-specific surveys have been undertaken to inform the socio-economics EIA chapter. This is because socio-economic impacts are determined by the level of expenditure, receptors would be assessed based on available socio-economic data and construction and operation and maintenance ports are not known.

18.7. Baseline Environment

18.7.1. Overview of Baseline Environment

20. The following sections provide a summary of the socio-economic baseline environment.

                        Population

21. In 2021, Scotland had a population of almost 5.5 million ( Table 18.7   Open ▸ ), 8.2% of the UK population of 67.0 million. The share of the working age population (aged 16 to 64 years old) was higher in Scotland at 63.8%, compared to the UK (62.9%). Compared to the UK, Scotland has a lower proportion of younger people (aged 0 to 15 years old) as a share of the population and a higher proportion of older people (aged 65+ years old).

Table 18.7: Population by Age Group, 2021 (ONS, 2023)

                        Labour market and employment

22. In 2021, there were 2.6 million jobs in the Scottish economy ( Table 18.8   Open ▸ ), representing around 8.1% of employment in the UK economy (32.2 million jobs).
23. During the development stage, which includes project management, project design and environmental impact assessments, there will be opportunities for the professional, scientific and technical activities sector, which employs 167,000 people in Scotland (5.9% of UK employment in this sector).
24. Employment in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply sectors in Scotland (18,500 people) is 13.1% of UK’s employment in the sector, reflecting a proportionately larger renewable energy sector in Scotland. This may also indicate that the Scottish professional services sector has experience in supporting the renewable energy sector.
25. Sectors relevant to the construction phase of the Array include manufacturing, which has total employment in Scotland of 179,000 people (7.4% of UK employment in the sector) and construction, which has total employment in Scotland of 158,000 people (9.8% of UK employment in the sector). Scotland’s high share employment in mining and quarrying sectors, which employ 23,500 people (50% of UK employment in the sector), reflects strengths in offshore oil and gas, which are relevant for the development and construction phases. Scottish employment in transportation and storage of 107,000 people (6.6% of UK employment in the sector), will also be relevant since the Array will require port infrastructure during the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases.

Table 18.8: Number of People in Employment in Selected Industries, 2021 (ONS, 2023a)

                        Annual economic output

26. The Array will contribute to the Scottish and UK economies during all phases, and its contribution will be measured in Gross Value Added (GVA), which is a measure of the economic output of an economy, where non-staff costs are subtracted from turnover. In 2021, the total economic output of the Scottish and UK economies (ONS, 2023c) was:

• Scotland: £149.9 billion; and
• UK: £2,040 billion.

                        Renewable energy sector

27. Analysis by the Fraser of Allander Institute (Fraser of Allander, 2023) considered the economic impact of Scotland’s renewable energy sector. It estimated that in 2021, the sector directly employed 13,600 full-time equivalent employees. When spending in the supply chain (indirect effects) and spending by staff (induced effects) are included it was estimated that the sector supported employment of 42,000 and an impact of £4.7 billion GVA.
28. Of this, it was estimated that offshore wind supported approximately 15,000 employees, though it should be noted that there is considerable uncertainty related to these estimates and the industry is changing rapidly as the offshore wind sector grows.

                        Potential port locations baseline

29. Table 18.9   Open ▸ presents baseline data for the local study areas for the long list of potential construction ports identified on the east coast of Scotland. The table shows that lowest populations of the local study areas are for the six ports located in the Highlands[1]. The local study area for Rosyth has the largest population due to its proximity to the local authority areas of Fife, Stirling, Clackmannanshire, Falkirk, Perth and Kinross, the City of Edinburgh, and West Lothian. In terms of the local labour market, the local study area for Peterhead has the smallest workforce of the local study areas identified, whilst the local study area for Rosyth has the largest workforce.

Table 18.9: Potential Construction Port Local Study Areas Baseline Data (ONS, 2023a)

30. Table 18.10   Open ▸ presents baseline data for the local study areas for the long list of operation and maintenance ports identified on the east coast of Scotland. The table shows the local study area for Buckie has the smallest population and the smallest workforce of the local study areas for the 25 potential operation and maintenance ports identified. The local study area for Rosyth has the largest population and workforce.

Table 18.10: Potential Operation and Maintenance Port Local Study Areas Baseline Data (ONS, 2023a)

18.7.2. Future Baseline Scenario

31. The EIA Regulations require that a “a description of the relevant aspects of the current state of the environment (baseline scenario) and an outline of the likely evolution thereof without implementation of the project as far as natural changes from the baseline scenario can be assessed with reasonable effort, on the basis of the availability of environmental information and scientific knowledge” is included within the Array EIA Report.
32. If the Array does not come forward, an assessment of the ‘without development’ future baseline conditions has also been carried out and is described within this section.
33. From 2021 to 2043 (the latest years available), Scotland’s population is projected to increase by 1.2% (National Records of Scotland, 2021). In contrast, the wider UK population is anticipated to grow by 7.6% (ONS, 2022b).
34. A critical aspect of these demographic changes is the shift in the working-age population, defined as individuals aged 16 to 64 years old. During this period, Scotland is projected to witness a decrease in its working-age population, with an expected decline of over 96,200 individuals, representing a -2.8% change (National Records of Scotland, 2021). This contrasts with the overall UK trend (ONS, 2022b), where the working-age population is forecasted to rise by almost 1,310,900, an increase of approximately 3.1%.
35. The anticipated reduction in Scotland’s working-age population presents a challenge to its economic and labour market stability. Without effective measures to attract and retain a skilled workforce, Scotland may face workforce shortage. The growth of sectors that provide high quality jobs will therefore be an important driver of Scotland’s population trends and economic performance.

Table 18.11: Population Projections (National Records of Scotland, 2021) (ONS, 2022b)

18.7.3. Data Limitations and Assumptions

36. One limitation of this assessment is the reliance on population data from 2021 and projections from 2018, which are the latest available. These figures are not expected to be adjusted until the end of 2024.
37. Additionally, the lack of specific information on the locations of the ports limited the details that could be included about local socio-economic study areas. In the absence of specific information on the ports, the Array alone assessment does consider the potential economic and social impacts in the vicinity of the ports that are selected. The CEA also considers the potential economic and social impacts, however, as construction and operation and maintenance ports of other projects/plans are not currently known, the long list of ports detailed in Table 18.9   Open ▸ and Table 18.10   Open ▸ could not be used. This is further discussed in paragraph 190. In addition, due to the lack of specific information on ports which may be used in the decommissioning phase for the Array alone at present, and the uncertainty of the future baseline for decommissioning, for the social impacts a high-level assessment of decommissioning has been undertaken. Similarly, for the cumulative effects assessment, it was not possible to determine significance of effects for the decommissioning phase for social impacts. It should be noted that sections 18.11 and 18.12 do present an assessment of significance of effects for economic impacts during the decommissioning phase where appropriate.