18.12. Cumulative Effects Assessment

  1. The CEA assesses the impact associated with the Array together with other relevant plans, projects and activities. Cumulative effects are defined as the combined effect of the Array in combination with the effects from a number of different projects, on the same receptor or resource. Further details on CEA methodology are provided in volume 1, chapter 6.
  2. The projects and plans selected as relevant to the CEA presented within this chapter are based upon the results of a screening exercise (see volume 3, appendix 6). Volume 3, appendix 6.4 further provides information regarding how information pertaining to other plans and projects is gained and applied to the assessment. Each project or plan has been considered on a case-by-case basis for screening in or out of this chapter’s assessment based upon data confidence, impact-receptor pathways and the spatial/temporal scales involved.
  3. In undertaking the CEA for the Array, it should be noted that other projects and plans under consideration will have differing potential for proceeding to an operational stage and hence a differing potential to ultimately contribute to a cumulative impact alongside the Array. Therefore, a tiered approach has be adopted which provides a framework for placing relative weight upon the potential for each project/plan to be included in the CEA to ultimately be realised, based upon the project/plan’s current stage of maturity and certainty in the projects’ parameters. The tiered approach which will be utilised within the Array CEA employs the following tiers:
  • tier 1 assessment - Array with Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure and all plans/projects which became operational since baseline characterisation, those under construction, and those with consent and submitted but not yet determined;
  • tier 2 assessment - All plans/projects assessed under Tier 1, plus those projects with a Scoping Report; and
  • tier 3 assessment - All plans/projects assessed under Tier 2, which are reasonably foreseeable, plus those projects likely to come forward where an Agreement for Lease (AfL) has been granted.
  1. The specific projects scoped into the CEA for socio-economics are outlined in Table 18.33   Open ▸ .
  2. The range of potential cumulative impacts that are identified and included in Table 18.34   Open ▸ , is a subset of those considered for the Array alone CEA assessment. This is because some of the potential impacts identified and assessed for the Array alone, are localised and temporary in nature. It is considered therefore, that these potential impacts have limited or no potential to interact with similar changes associated with other plans or projects. These have therefore not been taken forward for detailed assessment.
  3. Similarly, some of the potential impacts considered within the Array alone assessment are specific to a particular phase of development (e.g. construction, operation and maintenance or decommissioning). Where the potential for cumulative effects with other plans or projects only have potential to occur where there is spatial or temporal overlap with the Array during certain phases of development, impacts associated with a certain phase may be omitted from further consideration where no plans or projects have been identified that have the potential for cumulative effects during this period.
  4. The CEA for socio-economics has been based on assessment of whether the planned projects are likely to overlap with the supply chain requirements of the Array. On this basis, the assessment has focused on other offshore wind projects, predominantly those related to the ScotWind leasing round. Therefore, the following have been scoped out:
  • offshore wind projects happening outside of the UK;
  • tidal, wave and other energy related projects: these are not part of the offshore wind sector;
  • cables and pipelines, which form part of the existing baseline;
  • dredging and aggregates; aquaculture; oil and gas; cables and pipelines; military; coastal: these are not part of the offshore wind sector; and
  • ports and port pontoon expansions: these are included as part of the topic baseline and hence not considered part of the cumulative impact assessment.
  1. It should be noted that the information displayed within Table 18.33   Open ▸ differs from other chapters. Instead of naming each individual project or plan considered within the CEA for socio-economics, Table 18.33   Open ▸ shows projects and/or plans grouped by status (i.e. application, consented, under construction, operational) under each tier using the criteria set out in paragraph 184. This approach has been selected for the socio-economics chapter CEA as the total number of other projects and/or plans is of more relevance and importance to socio-economics CEA than the specifics of an individual cumulative project.
  2. In addition, whilst the social impact assessment for the Array alone considered a long list of potential construction and operation and maintenance ports to assess impacts (see paragraph 55), this approach has not been used for the assessment of cumulative effects as port locations to be used by other projects/plans are not currently known, therefore, it is not currently possible to determine if they would use the same or different ports.

 

Table 18.33:
List of Other Projects and Plans Considered within the CEA for Socio-Economics

Table 18.33: List of Other Projects and Plans Considered within the CEA for Socio-Economics

18.12.1. Maximum Design Scenario

  1. The MDS identified in Table 18.34   Open ▸ have been selected as those having the potential to result in the greatest effect on an identified receptor or receptor group. The cumulative effects presented and assessed in this section have been selected from the details provided in volume 1, chapter 3 as well as the information available on other projects and plans (see volume 3, appendix 6.4), to inform a ‘maximum design scenario’. Effects of greater adverse significance are not predicted to arise should any other development scenario, based on details within the volume 1, chapter 3 (e.g. different wind turbine layout), to that assessed here, be taken forward in the final design scheme.

 

Table 18.34:
Maximum Design Scenario Considered for Each Impact as part of the Assessment of Likely Significant Cumulative Effects on Socio-economics

Table 18.34: Maximum Design Scenario Considered for Each Impact as part of the Assessment of Likely Significant Cumulative Effects on Socio-economics

18.12.2. Cumulative Effects Assessment

  1. An assessment of the likely significance of the cumulative effects of the Array upon socio-economic receptors arising from each identified impact is given below.

Employment and GVA impacts associated with the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array

  1. This section considers the cumulative employment and GVA impacts associated with the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array, and is divided into the following subsections:
  • economic impacts of Ossian in Scotland and the UK;
  • increased offshore wind supply chain in Scotland and the rest of the UK; and
  • increased competition for resources.

                        Economic Impacts of Ossian in Scotland and the UK

Tier 1
  1. The Array forms part of Ossian (which also includes the Proposed offshore export cable corridor(s) and Proposed onshore transmission), and the impact of Ossian is considered here. Further details of the economic impact of Ossian are discussed in the Technical Appendix (volume 3, appendix 18.1).

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. Based on the SCDS and BiGGAR Economics modelling (which has been adjusted for recent developments in grid connection detail, refer to section 3.3 of volume 3, appendix 18.1 for further details), it is expected that the total cost of the Ossian project will be £10.2 billion. Of this, £3.6 billion in contracts are expected to be secured in Scotland, supporting £2.4 billion GVA and 35,920 years of employment. This represents over 4% of employment in the construction sector and therefore the magnitude of this impact has therefore been assessed as high.
  2. The UK as a whole is expected to secure contracts worth £4.6 billion, supporting £4.8 billion GVA and 67,980 years of employment. This represents 0.8% of employment in the UK construction sector and therefore the magnitude of this impact has been assessed as medium.
  3. The construction port impacts are associated with the Array, and therefore there are not expected to be greater impacts associated with the Ossian project as a whole.

 

Table 18.35:
Economic Impact of Ossian Construction

Table 18.35: Economic Impact of Ossian Construction

 

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible sensitivity.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be high and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. Given that the share of employment substantially exceeds the threshold for assessing high impact (greater than 1%) the effect has been assessed as moderate beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be medium and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. Given the magnitude is in the upper part of the range for assessing magnitude (0.5-1.0%) the effect has been assessed as minor beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary mitigation and residual effect

  1. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.10. No secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. Based on the SCDS and BiGGAR Economics modelling, it is expected that the annual operation and maintenance cost of the Ossian project will be £227 million. Of this additional expenditure, £68 million in contracts are expected to be secured in Scotland, supporting £44 million GVA and 500 years of employment. This represents 0.3% of employment in the Scottish construction sector and therefore the magnitude of this impact has therefore been assessed as low.
  2. The UK as a whole is expected to secure contracts worth £207 million, supporting £183 million GVA and 1,510 years of employment. This represents less than 0.1% of employment in the UK construction sector, and therefore the magnitude of this impact has been assessed as negligible.

 

Table 18.36:
Economic Impact of Ossian Operation and Maintenance

Table 18.36: Economic Impact of Ossian Operation and Maintenance

 

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible sensitivity.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be low and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. Given the impact is at the lower end of the scale for assessing magnitude (0.25-0.5%) the effect has been assessed as negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. The total decommissioning cost is estimated to be £542 million. Of this expenditure, £162 million in contracts are expected to be secured in Scotland, supporting £90 million GVA and 1,040 years of employment. This is equivalent to 0.2% of employment and the magnitude of this impact has therefore been assessed as low.
  2. The UK as a whole is expected to secure contracts worth £162 million, supporting £130 million GVA and 1,580 years of employment. This is equivalent to less than 0.1% of employment in the UK construction sector and therefore the magnitude has been assessed as negligible.

 

Table 18.37:
Economic Impact of Ossian Decommissioning

Table 18.37: Economic Impact of Ossian Decommissioning

 

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible sensitivity.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. As the magnitude is at the higher end of the range (less than 0.25%) the effect has been assessed minor beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

                        Increased Offshore Wind Supply Chain in Scotland and the Rest of the UK

Tiers 1 to 3
  1. There are a number of offshore wind developments that are being developed in Scotland, particularly on the east coast of Scotland, including a number of developments as part of the ScotWind leasing round.

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. As discussed in section 18.4, offshore wind has substantial potential to generate economic impacts in Scotland and the UK. In part this is by attracting international manufacturers, e.g. blade and cable manufacturers, drawn by the critical mass of offshore wind development.
  2. The Array is expected to account for over 10% of the ScotWind leasing round by capacity, and a substantial proportion of floating capacity. It is also expected to be one of the earlier ScotWind projects that are developed. As such, it has the potential to attract manufacturers and increase the Scottish and UK supply chain in Scotland, increasing the economic impact associated with offshore wind.
  3. The most adverse scenario has been considered based on already committed investments, though further investments are likely as the supply chain develops. These projects require certainty that projects will be developed and orders will be forthcoming, which is why early stage projects such as the Array are important in securing the investment.
  4. This includes a factory proposed by Sumitomo, a Japanese multinational, to manufacture subsea cables in the Highlands which is expected to directly employ over 150 people, and a factory proposed by XLCC to manufacture subsea cables in Ayrshire, which is expected to employ 900 people. These factories would employ the equivalent of 0.6% of manufacturing employment in Scotland and less than 0.1% of manufacturing employment in the UK.
  5. On this basis the magnitude of impact in Scotland has been assessed as medium and magnitude of impact in the UK has been assessed as negligible. More local impacts are likely to have a higher magnitude of impact. However, this cannot be assessed since the local area that will be relevant for each of the projects are not known.

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible sensitivity.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be medium and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. Given that that magnitude is at the lower end of the range (0.5-1.0%) the effect has been assessed as minor beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. The large number of offshore wind farms may lead to economies of scale, with operation and maintenance hubs at certain ports. 
  2. As the operation and maintenance port is not known it is not possible to assess the magnitude of potential impacts.

Significance of effect

  1. It is not possible to determine the magnitude of the beneficial impact and therefore it is not possible to assess the significance of the effect.

Decommissioning phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. The large number of offshore wind farms may lead to specialisation related to decommissioning and increased economic impacts at certain ports.
  2. As the decommissioning port is not known it is not possible to assess the magnitude of potential impacts.

Significance of effect

  1. It is not possible to determine the magnitude of the beneficial impact and therefore it is not possible to assess the significance of the effect.

                        Increased Competition for Resources

Tiers 1 to 3

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. Due to the size of planned offshore wind farms, including ScotWind, there may be competition for resources, including port and manufacturing capacity as well as skilled labour.
  2. Without co-ordination between developers and suppliers, competitive pressure on resources may lead to delays to less developed projects and a slower build out of offshore wind capacity. However, it is also likely to lead to increased investment in the sector in order to meet the demand for services. For example, it may lead to new port capacity and manufacturing facilities, or increased efficiency in the sector.
  3. Under the most adverse scenario, it is anticipated that there will be a slower build out of offshore wind, though the total activity is expected to be the same. It is also anticipated that the demand for ports and other services will lead to increased investment and government response to increase supply, which will lead to a faster build out.
  4. Therefore, the magnitude of impact has been assessed as negligible for the Scottish and UK economies. To assess local impacts would require knowledge of the construction port(s), which is not known at this stage and therefore the magnitude cannot be assessed at a local scale.

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible sensitivity.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible adverse significance, which is significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. The large number of offshore wind farms may also lead to competition for resources, such as access to ports. As with the construction sector this is expected to result in increased investment and efficiency, and improved co-ordination across the sector. 
  2. Therefore, there is not expected to be a reduction in the build out of offshore wind farms and the magnitude of impact has been assessed as negligible for the Scottish and UK economies. To assess local impacts would require knowledge of the operation and maintenance port(s), which is not known at this stage and therefore the magnitude cannot be assessed at a local scale.

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible sensitivity.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. The large number of offshore wind farms may also lead to competition for resources. As with the construction sector this is expected to result in increased investment and efficiency, and improved co-ordination across the sector. Therefore, the magnitude of impact has been assessed as negligible in Scotland and the UK.

Sensitivity of receptor

  1. As for the Array economic impacts, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy has been assessed as low and the sensitivity of the UK economy has been assessed as negligible.

Significance of effect

  1. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
  2. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Demographic changes and demand for housing and other services

  1. There are a number of offshore wind developments that are being developed in Scotland, particularly on the east coast of Scotland, including a number of developments as part of the ScotWind leasing round.
Tiers 1 to 3

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. While impacts associated with the construction phase are generally expected to be relatively short-term, the pipeline of projects associated with ScotWind and other developments means that they are likely to be experienced as a longer-term impact.
  2. As discussed, the Array is likely to result in short-term demand for housing and other services over its construction phase. However, if this is followed by other projects of a similar nature, skilled workers and their families are likely to remain in the area over a longer period of time. This is expected to result in a stable increase in population and sustained demand for services such as education, and more integration with the community.
  3. The magnitude of this impact is likely to be determined by the individual characteristics of any area, such as its long-term growth trajectory and population dynamics. As the construction ports to be used by the projects considered within the CEA are not known, it is not possible to assess the magnitude of any change.

Significance of effect

  1. As the construction ports to be used by the projects considered within the CEA are not known, it is not possible to assess the sensitivity and significance.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

  1. Operation and maintenance impacts are expected to generate long-term jobs at operations and maintenance ports. In conjunction with other east coast offshore wind farms this may result in increased co-ordination and the development of operations and maintenance hubs, which will result in increased demographic and other impacts.
  2. As the operation and maintenance ports to be used by the projects considered within the CEA are not known, it is not possible to assess the magnitude of any change.

Significance of effect

  1. As the operation and maintenance ports to be used by the projects considered within the CEA are not known, it is not possible to assess the sensitivity and significance.

Decommissioning phase

Significance of the effect

  1. Though the magnitude and sensitivity will depend on the port chosen, these impacts are unlikely to be significant.

Changes to visitor Behaviour

  1. No significant socio-economic effects on visitor behaviour are anticipated associated with the Array. Significant cumulative socio-economic impacts on visitor behaviour are also not anticipated.

CHanges to commercial fisheries

Tiers 1 to 3
  1. The commercial fisheries chapter has considered potential cumulative effects on commercial fishing across the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases. Such effects could have socio-economic consequences if the Array reduces the value of fish caught by commercial fisheries, with potential downstream impacts, for example on fish processors.
  2. Prior to mitigation, offshore wind projects deemed to be in Tiers 1 to 3 are expected to have moderate adverse cumulative effects on:
  • temporary loss or restricted access to fishing grounds during construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning;
  • long term loss or restricted access to fishing grounds during construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning; and
  • displacement of fishing activities into other areas during construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning.
  1. The assessment also notes that the Array is likely to make a minimal contribution to the loss of fishing grounds. The Applicant proposes at a regional scale to monitor fishing activity with the region to identify any changing effort. In addition, the Applicant is committed to explore opportunities for coexistence within the Array, subject to final design and layout.
  2. Following mitigation, the residual effects were assessed as minor and not significant. As a result, no socio-economic consequences arise that required assessment.

changes to shipping and Marine recreation

Tiers 1 to 3
  1. The shipping and navigation chapter has considered potential cumulative effects on shipping and navigation across the development, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases. No significant effects were identified. As a result, no socio-economic consequences arise that required assessment.