18.10. Measures Adopted as Part of the Array

73. As part of the Array design process, a number of designed in measures have been proposed to increase the potential for beneficial impacts and mitigate adverse impacts on socio-economics (see Table 18.18   Open ▸ ). They are considered inherently part of the design of the Array and, as there is a commitment to implementing these measures, these have been considered in the assessment presented in section 18.11 (i.e. the determination of magnitude and therefore significance assumes implementation of these measures). These designed in measures are considered standard industry practice for this type of development.

Table 18.18: Designed In Measures Adopted as Part of the Array

74. Although the construction and operation and maintenance ports are not known at this time, once selected the Applicant will engage with local communities and relevant stakeholders to identify and address potential challenges and work to increase benefits to the local community area.

18.11. Assessment of Significance

75. Table 18.12   Open ▸ summarises the potential impacts arising from the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases of the Array, as well as the maximum design scenario against which each impact has been assessed. An assessment of the likely significance of the effects of the Array on the socio-economic receptors caused by each identified impact is given below.

Employment and Gross Value Added (GVA) impacts associated with the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array

76. This section considers the employment and GVA impacts associated with the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning of the Array, and is divided into the following subsections:

• economic impact in Scotland and the UK;
• economic impact at construction port;
• economic impact at operation and maintenance port; and
• contribution to the UK energy sector.

                        Economic impact in Scotland and the UK

77. More detail on the expenditure and economic impact assumptions and methodology is available in volume 3, appendix 18.1.

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

78. The first step in assessing the economic impact of the Array was to estimate the total expenditure broken down by category and considering the share secured in each socio-economic study area. This was based on BiGGAR Economics analysis of the SCDS, developments related to the Array and modelling of the typical costs associated with a floating offshore wind (BVG Associates, 2024). As this is the most adverse scenario, this has been based on the Option (PDE Option 4) with the lowest economic impacts (more detail is presented in volume 3, appendix 18.1).
79. For the Array it was estimated that the total spend would be £7.7 billion, of which £3.3 billion (43%) would be secured in Scotland and £4.0 billion (52%) would be secured in the UK ( Table 18.19   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.19: Scotland, UK and Total Array Construction Spending by Category

80. To estimate the economic impact associated with expenditure in each category, each contract was divided into smaller categories, which were then assigned to one or more sectors of the economy. Turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors (ONS, 2023e) were then applied to the expenditure in order to estimate the direct impact.
81. On this basis, it was estimated that the direct economic impact could be £1.3 billion GVA and 19,960 years of employment in Scotland, and £1.6 million GVA and 24,040 years of employment in the UK. The largest opportunities relate to the manufacture of floating wind turbine installations, which account for over half of the economic impact in Scotland ( Table 18.20   Open ▸ ).
82. Based on the economic modelling undertaken, the direct employment supported by the Array in Scotland is expected to attract average wages of £36,800, which is 4% higher than the Scottish median annual wage of £35,500 (ONS, 2023g). A significant proportion of these are associated with the manufacture of floating foundations, which are expected to attract wages of around £37,200. Manufacturing is a sector that is also characterised by high levels of full-time work.

Table 18.20: Array Construction Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK

83. As well as the direct economic impact associated with the expenditure, spending in the supply chain (indirect) and spending by staff (induced) will also support wider economic impacts. These were estimated using GVA and employment multipliers (Scottish Government, 2022b) (ONS, 2023f) that capture linkages between sectors of the economy.
84. Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was estimated that the Array's total economic impact could be £2.3 billion GVA and 33,500 years of employment in Scotland (peaking at 6,340 jobs), and £4.2 billion GVA and 60,310 years of employment in the UK (peaking at 11,210 jobs). This is shown in Table 18.21   Open ▸ and Table 18.22   Open ▸ .

Table 18.21: Array Construction Total GVA impact, Scotland and the UK

Table 18.22: Array Construction Total Employment impact, Scotland and the UK

85. Given that the level of in employment in Scotland’s construction sector is equal to 158,000 jobs ( Table 18.8   Open ▸ ), the peak employment would account for 4.0% of total construction sector employment. On this basis, the magnitude of impacts in Scotland has been assessed as high.
86. In the UK the level of employment supported in the construction sector is equal to 1.6 million jobs ( Table 18.8   Open ▸ ). Therefore, peak employment is expected to account for 0.7% of total construction sector employment. On this basis, the magnitude of impacts in the UK has been assessed as medium.

Sensitivity of receptor

87. The sensitivity of an economy is based on its responsiveness to change, its relative diversity (more diverse economies are less sensitive) and growth trajectory (for example is the number of jobs increasing or decreasing). The criteria are set out in Table 18.16   Open ▸ .
88. Given the size and diversity of the Scottish economy, which employs 2.6 million people, it has been assessed as low sensitivity, since the number of jobs in the economy means that it is tolerant of changes without fundamentally altering its present character.
89. Similarly, the UK economy, which employs 32.2 million people, has also been assessed as negligible sensitivity, since the number of jobs is substantially greater than in the Scottish economy and so it is even more tolerant of changes.

Significance of the effect

90. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be high and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. Given that the share of employment substantially exceeds the threshold for assessing high impact (greater than 1%) the effect has been assessed as moderate beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.
91. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be medium and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. Given the magnitude is in the middle of the range for assessing magnitude (0.5-1.0%) the effect has been assessed as minor beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Secondary mitigation and residual effect

92. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.10. No secondary mitigation is required.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

93. For the Array it was estimated that the annual spend could be £227 million, of which £65 million (29%) could be secured in Scotland and £202 million (89%) could be secured in the UK ( Table 18.23   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.23: Scotland, UK and Total Array Operation and Maintenance Spending by Category

94. Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the Array’s direct annual economic impact could be £26 million GVA and 310 years of employment in Scotland, and £58 million GVA and 530 years of employment in the UK ( Table 18.24   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.24: Array Operation and Maintenance Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK

95. Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the Array's annual economic impact could be £43 million GVA and 490 jobs in Scotland, and £179 million GVA and 1,480 jobs in the UK. This is shown in Table 18.25   Open ▸ and Table 18.26   Open ▸ .

Table 18.25: Array Operation and Maintenance Total GVA impact, Scotland and the UK

Table 18.26: Array Operation and Maintenance Total Employment impact, Scotland and the UK

96. The annual operation and maintenance impact is expected to account for 0.3% of the Scottish construction sector’s total employment and has the magnitude of impacts has therefore been assessed as low.
97. Similarly, the impact on the UK economy is expected to account for less than 0.1% of the construction sector’s total employment and therefore the magnitude of impacts on the UK economy has been assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of the receptor

98. As for the construction phase, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy, which employs 2.6 million people, has been assessed as low, and the sensitivity of the UK economy, which employs 32.2 million people, has been assessed as negligible.

Significance of the effect

99. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be low and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. Given the impact is at the lower end of the scale for assessing magnitude (0.25% to 0.5%) the effect has been assessed as negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
100. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

Decommissioning phase

Magnitude of impact

101. Decommissioning would be expected to take place after the operation and maintenance lifespan, and so there is considerable uncertainty about the level of expenditure and the share that could be secured in Scotland and the UK.
102. The potential expenditure associated with decommissioning and the share that could be secured in Scotland and the UK was not part of the SCDS process. It was assumed that there would be an expenditure of around £150,000 per MW associated with decommissioning, based on the BVG Associates Guide to Floating Wind Farm (BVG Associates, 2024). This suggests that total spending associated with Ossian would be £542 million. An adjustment was then made to account for the share of spend on the Array only. On this basis, the cost of decommissioning the Array would be £174 million.
103. Analysis by BVG Associates (BVG Associates, 2021) indicates that the lowest share of decommissioning expenditure that could be secured in Scotland and the UK would be 30%, though there is substantial scope to increase this share as the sector develops.
104. Therefore, it was estimated that the total decommissioning spend could be £174 million of which £52 million could be secured in Scotland and in the UK ( Table 18.27   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.27: Scotland, UK and Total Array Decommissioning Spending by Category

105. Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the Array’s direct economic impact could be £16 million GVA and 190 years of employment in Scotland and the UK ( Table 18.28   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.28: Array Decommissioning Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK

106. Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the economic impact of decommissioning the Array could be £30 million GVA and 330 years of employment in Scotland, and £40 million GVA and 510 years of employment in the UK ( Table 18.29   Open ▸ ; Table 18.30   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.29: Array Decommissioning Total GVA impact, Scotland and the UK

Table 18.30: Array Decommissioning Total Employment impact, Scotland and the UK

107. This is therefore expected that decommissioning will account for around less than 0.2% of employment in the Scottish construction sector and therefore the magnitude of impact has been assessed as negligible.
108. Decommissioning is expected to account for less than 0.1% of UK construction sector employment and therefore the impact on the UK economy has been assessed as negligible.

Sensitivity of receptor

109. As for the construction phase, the sensitivity of the Scottish economy, which employs 2.6 million people, has been assessed as low, and the sensitivity of the UK economy, which employs 32.2 million people, has been assessed as negligible.

Significance of the effect

110. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in Scotland is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be low. Given the size of the Scottish economy, the effect has been assessed as negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
111. Overall, the magnitude of the impact in the UK is deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the economy is considered to be negligible. The effect will, therefore, be of negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

                        Economic impact at construction port(s)

112. The economic impact at the construction port has been assessed based on expenditure in the relevant categories (e.g. marshalling harbour) and the share that could be secured at the construction port. Sectoral assumptions have then been used to assess the employment impact supported. More detail on the expenditure and economic impact assumptions and methodology is available in volume 3, appendix 18.1.

Construction phase

Magnitude of impact

113. Some of the economic impacts associated with the construction of the Array are expected to be geographically concentrated around the main construction port.
114. It was estimated that the construction port could secure contracts worth £154 million, with the largest contract relating to the marshalling harbour activities (£114 million). This is approximately 2% of the total spend associated with the Array.
115. It is estimated that this could support 1,110 years of employment at the construction port(s) and a peak direct employment of 240 jobs for four years (compared to peak employment in Scotland of 6,340) ( Table 18.31   Open ▸ ).

Table 18.31: Array Construction Port Economic Impact

116. Considering that the construction port local study area with the smallest construction workforce employs 7,500 people and the largest employs 34,450 ( Table 18.8   Open ▸ ), peak employment of 240 would represent between 3.2% and 0.7% of total construction employment in the local study areas. On this basis, the magnitude of economic impact in the local study area for construction port(s) has been assessed as medium to high (depending on the port(s) selected).

Sensitivity of receptor

117. The sensitivity of the construction port local study areas, which employ between 100,000 to 758,700 people, has been assessed as low to medium (depending on the port(s) selected).

Significance of the effect

118. The most adverse scenario for economic impact at construction port(s) (the lowest economic benefits) would be where the magnitude of the impact in the local study areas is be deemed to be medium and the sensitivity of the local economy is considered to be low, giving an effect assessed as minor beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms. This would be the case if the construction port(s) selected were Rosyth, where the economic impacts could easily be absorbed given the large workforce available within the associated local study area.
119. The most beneficial scenario for economic impact at construction port(s) (the highest economic benefits) would be where the magnitude of the impact in the local study areas is be deemed to be high and the sensitivity of the local economy is considered to be medium, giving an effect assessed as moderate to major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms. This would be the case if the construction port(s) selected were either Peterhead or one Highland ports, where the economic impacts would represent a substantial change to the economy of the local study area.

Secondary mitigation and residual effect

120. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.10. No secondary mitigation is required.

                        Economic impact at operation and maintenance port(s)

121. The economic impact at the operation and maintenance port has been assessed based on expenditure in the relevant categories (e.g. marshalling harbour) and the share that could be secured at the operation and maintenance port. Sectoral assumptions have then been used to assess the employment impact supported. More detail on the expenditure and economic impact assumptions and methodology is available in volume 3, appendix 18.1.

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

122. Some of the economic impacts associated with the operation and maintenance of the Array are expected to be geographically concentrated around the operation and maintenance port.
123. It was estimated that this port could secure contracts worth £23 million, with the largest contract relating to the operations centre and support staff (£12 million). This is equivalent to around 10% of total operational spend. It was estimated that could support employment of 70 jobs at the operation and maintenance port (compared to 490 jobs in Scotland) ( Table 18.32   Open ▸ ).
124. Considering that the operation and maintenance port local study area with the smallest construction sector workforce employs 2,375 people and the largest employs 34,450 ( Table 18.8   Open ▸ ), 70 jobs would represent between 2.9% and 0.2% of total construction employment in the local study areas. On this basis, the magnitude of economic impact in the local study area for operation and maintenance port(s) has been assessed as negligible to high (depending on the port(s) selected).

Table 18.32: Array Operation and Maintenance Port Economic impact

Sensitivity of receptor

125. The sensitivity of the operation and maintenance port local study areas, which employ between 37,500 to 758,700 people, has been assessed as negligible (whichever port(s) are selected).

Significance of the effect

126. The most adverse scenario for economic impact at operation and maintenance port(s) (the lowest economic benefits) would be where the magnitude of the impact in the local study areas is be deemed to be negligible and the sensitivity of the local economy is considered to be negligible, giving an effect assessed as negligible beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.
127. The most beneficial scenario for economic impact at operation and maintenance port(s) (the highest economic benefits) would be where the magnitude of the impact in the local study areas is be deemed to be high and the sensitivity of the local economy is considered to be negligible, giving an effect assessed as minor beneficial significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

                        Contribution to UK Energy Sector

Operation and maintenance phase

Magnitude of impact

128. The primary contribution that the Array is expected to make is providing additional energy capacity in the UK, supplying renewable electricity to energy consumers as the economy transitions to a net zero economy.
129. It is anticipated that the Array will have a capacity of up to 3.6 GW, with a load factor of 50%. On this basis, it would be expected to generate 15.8 TWh of electricity annually.
130. Given that the UK’s annual electricity consumption in 2022 was 320.7 TWh (ONS, 2023h), this represents 4.9% of annual electricity consumption. The magnitude of impact has been assessed as high based on the criteria set out in Table 18.14   Open ▸ .

Sensitivity of receptor

131. The UK electricity sector is very large, with diverse sources of energy production including onshore and offshore wind, solar, nuclear, fossil fuels, interconnectors and hydropower. However, it is currently undergoing substantial change in order to transition to a net zero economy by 2050 and decarbonise the electricity sector by 2035.
132. A rapidly changing sector, like the UK’s energy sector which requires new sources of electricity and grid infrastructure, is more sensitive to change. Therefore, the sensitivity of the UK electricity sector has been assessed as medium.

Significance of the effect

133. Overall, the magnitude of the impact is deemed to be high and the sensitivity of the receptor is considered to be medium. Given the size of the overall contribution to the UK’s energy sector the effect has therefore, been assessed as major beneficial significance, which is significant in EIA terms.

Secondary mitigation and residual effect

134. The Applicant has committed to enhancement of beneficial effects as per section 18.10. No secondary mitigation is required.

Demographic changes and demand for housing and other services

135. This section considers potential demographic changes and demand for housing and other services associated with the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases of the Array, and is divided into the following subsections:

• population;
• housing demand and availability;
• other local services; and
• socio-cultural.

                        Population

136. The Array has the potential to affect the labour market of the area around epicentres of impact, such as the construction and operation and maintenance port(s), with wider effects on the local population, which may in turn affect local services and socio-cultural dynamics.
137. Population growth, including short-term workers, depends on the number of employees needed, and the length of contracts. It will also depend on the local economy's capacity to provide additional services, as more local workers with expertise will reduce reliance on transient workers and short-term changes in population. There are distinct differences between ports in urban and rural areas (as highlighted in Table 18.9   Open ▸ and Table 18.10   Open ▸ ), and as a result the impact on demographic structures will depend on the port(s) selected.
138. During the construction phase a peak workforce of 240 people ( Table 18.31   Open ▸ ) will be required to fulfil contracts at the construction port(s). Industry data suggests that these are expected to be primarily men aged 30 to 44, though the industry is making efforts to diversify this demographic and increase female representation to 33% by 2030 (Offshore Wind Industry Council, 2023). This may attract individuals and families, affecting the demographic composition near the port(s). During the operation and maintenance phase, a workforce of 70 is expected at the operation and maintenance port(s) ( Table 18.32   Open ▸ ).
139. In Scotland's rural areas, it would be expected that the opportunity for high-level local jobs could encourage individuals that had left the area for economic opportunities elsewhere to return. This could increase the number of working-age residents in rural areas and benefit long-term demographics.
140. The factors that determine the demographic impact are outlined in Figure 18.1   Open ▸ .

Figure 18.1: Factors Affecting Magnitude of Change to Community Populations

141. The sensitivity of the area around the port(s) will depend on the size of the existing population and its demographics. A larger population (e.g. a port located close to a large population) as well as a population that has a larger share of people who are working age will be less sensitive to population change.
142. Figure 18.2   Open ▸ provides details on the factors that influence how a community might respond to changes in demographics and other population impacts.

Figure 18.2: Factors Affecting Sensitivity of Community Populations

                        Housing demand and availability

143. The main driver of accommodation demand is expected to be the increased population required to meet the requirements of the construction port. During the peak of construction, the Array is expected to require 240 employees at the construction port, increasing demand for short-term accommodation, such as hotels, bed and breakfasts, and caravan parks.
144. The heightened demand for temporary housing is expected to benefit local accommodation providers. Increased trade and occupancy rates can provide a vital lifeline for these businesses, helping them remain operational year-round and offering sustained employment opportunities in rural areas.
145. However, if the local accommodation sector is nearing or at total capacity and cannot expand rapidly to accommodate the influx, this could adversely impact tourism. Visitors may face difficulties securing accommodation, particularly during peak seasons, potentially leading to a downturn in tourism-related activities.

Figure 18.3: Factors Affecting Magnitude of Change to Housing Demand and Availability

146. The Applicant has the opportunity to alleviate potential effects on the accommodation sector by collaborating with partners to establish solutions for accommodation.
147. The impact of housing on communities depends on how well the housing supply can adjust to changes in demand over short and long periods of time. The sensitivity of local areas to these impacts is influenced by factors such as the size of the nearby population, the availability of accommodation options like hotels and adaptable living spaces, the ability of the housing sector to meet increased demand and affordability of accommodation.
148. Research undertaken for the Scottish Government suggests that coastal communities face a number of housing constraints, particularly in terms of high-quality options (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022). 
149. The importance of overnight tourism, where visitors use temporary accommodation, also affects how vulnerable an area is to these changes.

Figure 18.4: Factors Affecting Sensitivity of Community Populations

                        Other local services

150. The anticipated population increase around the construction port(s) is likely to increase demand for healthcare, educational, and private services. These include:

• educational services;
• healthcare services;
• social support;
• police and fire services;
• other local authority services; and
• recreation and transport.

151. The main influences on demand for healthcare services are expected to be a temporary population increase and the health of that population. Specifically, individuals involved in port activities are generally working-age adults in good health, which means they will likely have limited demand for public health services such as General Practitioners (GPs), hospitals, and social care. In contrast, the general population has a higher proportion of older individuals who are more likely to need healthcare services.
152. The demand for schools and educational services depends on the number of children in the under-18 population, especially if transient workers bring their children. This is more likely if employment opportunities are seen as long term, while short term employment opportunities are unlikely to result in a large increase in educational demand is not expected.
153. A larger population is likely to be a rise in demand for personal services such as cafes, restaurants, and supermarkets. This is expected to boost the commercial vitality of towns and villages, leading to benefits for local businesses and the economy. It may also contribute to increased use of public transport and more traffic on local road networks.

Figure 18.5: Factors Affecting Magnitude of Change to Local Services

154. The sensitivity of the above services will primarily be determined by the level of capacity within each of these services, and how quickly they are able to respond to changing demand (e.g. hire more staff).

Figure 18.6: Factors Affecting Sensitivity of Local Services

                        Socio-cultural

155. The increased activity around the construction port(s) and operation and maintenance port(s), and related impacts such as an increased population, may have effects on how local communities perceive their area. To investigate this further, a survey conducted by the Scottish Government considered socio-economic and cultural impacts (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022).
156. This survey found that the majority of residents (63%) observed no change in their quality of life, while a notable 25% reported improvements, which is significantly higher than the 4% who felt the impacts were adverse ( Figure 18.7   Open ▸ ).

Figure 18.7: Community Perceptions of Offshore Wind Impacts on Quality of Life (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022)

157. In terms of community relations, 59% reported no impact, whereas 16% experienced beneficial impacts, compared to 7% who experienced adverse impacts. Furthermore, perceptions of the community character remained largely unaffected for most, with a beneficial impact noted by 21% of respondents, against 9% who perceived an adverse impact (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022).

Figure 18.8: Community Perceptions of Offshore Wind Impacts on Community Relations (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022)

Figure 18.9: Community Perceptions of Offshore Wind Impacts on Community Character (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022)

158. The temporary population increase associated with the construction phase has the potential to affect communities. The evidence suggests that adverse effects are likely to be limited (Scottish Government and Diffley Partnership, 2022).

                        Population change and social impacts

159. Population change is considered the primary driver of social impacts (including demographics, housing demand and availability, local services, and socio-cultural factors). Therefore, the magnitude of these social impacts will be linked to the expected increase in population.
160. The extent to which the economic impacts lead to noticeable population changes will be related to the proportion of employment taken up by those already resident in the local study areas and the proportion taken up by those moving to the local study areas.
161. The greatest change would be in the circumstances where all of the employment was taken by new residents and where a substantial proportion of these residents also moved with family members.

                        Social impacts at construction port(s)

162. During the construction phase a peak workforce of 240 people ( Table 18.31   Open ▸ ) will be required to fulfil contracts at the construction port(s). Based on an assumption of a change in population of two for every job, to allow for some employees moving with family members, that would imply a temporary increase in population of up to 480 during peak construction.
163. The method adopted for assessing the magnitude of social impacts included that an effect would be considered to have a negligible magnitude if there was a population change less than 0.25% of the current population in a study area ( Table 18.15   Open ▸ ). On this basis, it is possible to estimate the threshold below which a given population change would be considered to be negligible.
164. A population change of 480 (the estimated maximum temporary population change during peak construction) would be considered to be negligible in a local study area where the existing population was less than 192,000 (since 480 is 0.25% of 192,000).
165. Whilst the construction port(s) is not known, a long list of potential construction ports have been identified and local study areas defined. Of the potential construction ports, the local study areas of those located in Highland have the lowest populations, at 238,100 ( Table 18.9   Open ▸ ). On that basis, the magnitude of change would be assessed as negligible, whichever construction port(s) were selected.
166. Given the methodology for assessing significance (summarised in the matrix shown in Table 18.17   Open ▸ ), if the magnitude of changed is assessed as negligible, then depending on the sensitivity of the local study area to change, the social impacts at construction port(s) would be assessed as negligible to low significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

                        Social impacts at operation and maintenance port(s)

167. During operation and maintenance, a workforce of 70 is expected at the operation and maintenance port(s) ( Table 18.32   Open ▸ ). Based on an assumption of a change in population of two for every job, to allow for some employees moving with family members, that would imply an increase in population of up to 140 during operation and maintenance.
168. Using the same approach as for construction ports, a population change of 140 (the estimated maximum population change during during operation and maintenance) would be considered to be negligible in a local study area where the existing population was less than 56,000 (since 140 is 0.25% of 56,000).
169. A long list of potential operation and maintenance ports have been identified and local study areas defined. Of the potential operation and maintenance ports, the local study area associated with Buckie has the lowest population, at 96,400 ( Table 18.10   Open ▸ ). On that basis, the magnitude of change would be assessed as negligible, whichever operation and maintenance port(s) were selected.
170. Given the methodology for assessing significance (summarised in the matrix shown in Table 18.17   Open ▸ ), if the magnitude of changed is assessed as negligible, then depending on the sensitivity of the local study area to change, the social impacts at operation and maintenance port(s) would be assessed as negligible to low adverse significance, which is not significant in EIA terms.

                        Social impacts at decommissioning phase

171. As with the construction phase, economic impacts during the decommissioning phase are expected to be short-term in duration. While ports used in decommissioning are not known at this time, given the much smaller economic impacts associated with decommissioning it is unlikely that there will be substantial changes to population and so no significant social impacts are expected during the decommissioning phase.

Changes to visitor Behaviour

172. When assessing the impact of the proposed development on visitor behaviour, two key aspects must be considered. The first is the potential for visual impacts from tourism assets. During Scoping, seascape, landscape and visual effects were scoped out of the Array EIA (MD-LOT, 2023), since no LSE1 were expected. This would apply to tourism assets located onshore.
173. The second is the possibility that increased construction and operational activity in ports could disrupt tourism activities in the immediate vicinity of ports (for example, cruise tourism). Where cruise and other tourism activity is important to ports, it is anticipated that port authorities will actively manage these activities to minimise friction.
174. On this basis, significant socio-economic effects on visitor behaviour are not anticipated.

Changes to commercial fisheries

175. The commercial fisheries chapter (volume 2, chapter 12) has considered the potential effects on commercial fishing across the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases. Such effects could have socio-economic consequences if the Array reduces the value of fish caught by commercial fisheries, with potential downstream impacts, for example on fish processors.
176. The commercial fisheries chapter considered effects such as temporary and long term loss of access to fishing grounds, displacement or disruption of fish and shellfish resources, increased steaming time, interference with fishing vessels and gear snagging. This was assessed for a range of fishing receptors, including pelagic, demersal seine and demersal otter trawlers (including haddock, demersal species and Nephrops, a type of lobster), scallop dredging and potting vessels targeting brown crab and lobster.
177. No significant effects were identified during the construction, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning phases.
178. As a result, no socio-economic consequences arise that required assessment.

changes to shipping and Marine Recreation

179. The shipping and navigation chapter (volume 2, chapter 13) has considered the potential effects on shipping and navigation across the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases. The Array could increase transit times, resulting in increased costs for the industry, which could have wider socio-economic consequences if increased costs were passed on to consumers in Scotland or exporters.
180. The shipping and navigation chapter considered a number of potential impacts such as increased risk of collision, displacement from adverse weather routeing, reduced access to local ports and harbours, loss of station, reduction of underkeel clearance, anchor interaction with subsea cables or mooring lines and reduction in search and rescue capability.
181. No significant effects were identified, including from vessel displacement, with the busiest routes (which have up to six vessels per week) experiencing less than 0.1 nm of displacement as a result of the Array. As a result, no socio-economic consequences arise that required assessment.