Conclusion

516. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that the Array area in-combination with other plans and projects would have an adverse effects on certain qualifying features for several sites, as a result of disturbance and displacement impacts during the construction, operation, maintenance, and/or decommissioning phases, which could therefore undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.115   Open ▸ . An assessment of the impact of disturbance and displacement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5.115   Open ▸ , where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.115: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Disturbance and Displacement during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

517. As detailed in Table 5.115   Open ▸ , adverse effects on the qualifying seabird features of three SPAs were identified, which could undermine the conservation objectives of the SPA as a result of disturbance and displacement associated with activities during operation and maintenance phase of the Array in-combination with other plans and projects. There is risk therefore of undermining the following Conservation Objectives of the sites:

• Maintain the long term distribution of the species within site and avoid significant disturbance of the species: Given the level of impact arising from disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to influence the population of designated features as viable components of:

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill), and

-        St Abb's Head to Fast Castle SPA (seabird assemblage).

-        given the level of impact arising from disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to disturb the distribution of features within the following SPAs:

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill), and

-        St Abb's Head to Fast Castle SPA (seabird assemblage).

518. For all sites considered, there is no risk to undermining the following Conservation Objectives:

• as the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA; and
• as the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species.

5.5.3. Collision

519. Operational wind turbines and associated infrastructure present a collision risk for seabirds flying within the array. Direct collision with infrastructure may result in injury or death; however, it is assumed that all collisions with operational wind turbines result in mortality.
520. For the Array’s impacts, CRM for regularly occurring species was undertaken using the sCRM developed by Marine Scotland (McGregor et al., 2018). The User Guide for the sCRM Shiny App provided by Marine Scotland (Donovan, 2017) has been followed for the modelling of collision impacts predicted for the Array. The full methodology and input parameters is provided in volume 3, appendix 11.2 of the Array EIA Report.
521. For other developments considered, the approach to quantifying collision risk is as detailed in the data sources listed in the tables below. This will not necessarily be identical to the approach undertaken by Ossian, given developments of new CRM software and/or changing evidence and advice regarding appropriate input parameters to use for modelling.

                        Operation and maintenance phase

                        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

522. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.116   Open ▸ .

Table 5.116: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

523. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.117   Open ▸ .

Table 5.117: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

524. With a population of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 62,3 to 79.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.276 to 0.354 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
525. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.118   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.118: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

526. The kittiwake population of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA has declined significantly between its citation level of 60,904 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), and is assessed as being in “Unfavourable No Change” condition (NatureScot, ND). There have however been recent signs of slight recovery, with 13,547 AONs (27,094 individuals) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al, 2024).
527. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR ranges is 0.996 under both the high and low approach if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are included, or 0.997 if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are excluded. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.860 to 0.889 – i.e. the population size would be 11.1% to 14.0% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
528. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population, for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

529. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, it is expected that there would be a small but detectable negative impact on the kittiwake population. The seabird assemblage citation level is 95,000 individual seabirds, of which 60,904 were kittiwake. The decline in the kittiwake population between the citation level and Seabirds Count (Burnell et al., 2023) is therefore sufficient to adversely affect the overall population of the seabird assemblage. Whilst other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population has increased from 17,280 breeding adults to 39,440 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), this is unlikely to be sufficient to offset the decline in the kittiwake population. Therefore, whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
530. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Kittiwake

531. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.119   Open ▸ .

Table 5.119: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

532. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.120   Open ▸ .

Table 5.120: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

533. With a population of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 224.6 to 254.1 additional mortalities represents a 0.459 to 0.519 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
534. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.121   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.121: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

535. The kittiwake population of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA has declined slightly from its citation level of 65,000 breeding adults and recent counts of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), although it is assessed as being in “Favourable Maintained” condition (NatureScot, ND).
536. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.994 under both the high and low approach if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are included, or 0.994 to 0.995 if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are excluded. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.801 to 0.822 – i.e. the population size would be 17.8% to 19.9% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
537. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

538. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
539. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Farne Islands SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

540. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.122   Open ▸ .

Table 5.122: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

541. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.123   Open ▸ .

Table 5.123: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

542. With a population of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 11.4 to 38.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.130 to 0.441 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
543. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.124   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.124: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

544. The kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 8,241 breeding adults to recent counts of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
545. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.995 to 0.998. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.827 to 0.946 – i.e. the population size would be 5.4% to 17.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
546. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario, and it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an adverse effect on the kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments.
547. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, whilst the level of impact is still small, it is no longer considered immaterial and the additional mortality from the Array in-combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

548. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant adverse impact on the size of the kittiwake population if Berwick Bank is included.
549. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large impact that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, kittiwake is the only component of the assemblage for which a potential LSE2 has been identified from collision risk. Kittiwake are a minor component of the assemblage, with a citation population of 8,241 breeding adults out of the total assemblage citation population of 163,819 individuals. Other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population at citation was 65,750 breeding adults; the recent Seabirds Count estimated the population size to be 85,816 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). Therefore, the overall population of the assemblage will be maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Farne Islands SPA as a result of collision.

                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Kittiwake

550. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.125   Open ▸ .

Table 5.125: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

551. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.126   Open ▸ .

Table 5.126: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

552. With a population of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 465.3 to 497.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.511 to 0.547 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
553. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.127   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.127: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

554. The kittiwake population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 89,040 breeding adults to recent counts of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
555. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.994. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.791 to 0.804 – i.e. the population size would be 19.6% to 20.9% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
556. Whilst the population has grown slightly from the citation level, the magnitude of the impact is sufficient that it has the potential to adversely affect the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of the in-combination collision impact.

Gannet

557. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.128   Open ▸ .

Table 5.128: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

558. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.129   Open ▸ .

Table 5.129: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

559. With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 286.7 to 293.2 additional mortalities represents a 1.0671 to 1.095 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
560. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.130   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.130: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

561. The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
562. Under all scenarios and approaches, the CGR is 0.987, and the CPS ranges from 0.627 to 0.634. Whilst the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been growing, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
563. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
564. It should, however, be noted that The Array’s contribution to the in-combination collision impact is small, being 0.8 to 2.3 birds per year, or approximately 0.3 to 0.8% of the total impact.
565. It should further be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI, and moreover the Array’s contribution to the total impact would be imperceptible.
566. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA.
567. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach, no AEOI would be expected to occur, and The Array could not be stated to be making a material contribution to any in-combination impact.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

568. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The assessments found both species are expected to have an AEOI. In this instance, the magnitude of those impacts is sufficient to indicate that the overall seabird assemblage could, under the most precautionary (“high”) approach to assessment, be adversely affected.
569. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Forth Islands SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

570. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.131   Open ▸ .

Table 5.131: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

571. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.132   Open ▸ .

Table 5.132: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

572. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 25.7 to 59.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.283 to 0.652 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
573. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.133   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.133: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

574. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
575. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.992 to 0.997. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.757 to 0.887 – i.e. the population size would be 11.3% to 24.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
576. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.

Gannet

577. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.134   Open ▸ .

Table 5.134: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

578. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.135   Open ▸ .

Table 5.135: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

579. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 574.7 to 747.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.382 to 0.496 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
580. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.136   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.136: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

581. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 103,688 breeding adults, representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is substantial, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
582. The CGR ranges from 0.994 to 0.996. The CPS ranges from 0.810 to 0.851. When considering the dramatic and sustained growth of the gannet population within the Forth Islands SPA prior to the HPAI outbreak and the anticipated recovery, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
583. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

584. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The gannet population is expected to grow, whilst the kittiwake population is expected to decline. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of collision risk from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Fowlsheugh SPA

Kittiwake

585. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.137   Open ▸ .

Table 5.137: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

586. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.138   Open ▸ .

Table 5.138: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

587. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 80.3 to 183.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.286 to 0.653 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
588. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.139   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.139: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

589. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
590. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.992 to 0.997. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.756 to 0.884 – i.e. the population size would be 11.6% to 24.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
591. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

592. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the seabird assemblage.
593. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

Gannet

594. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.140   Open ▸ .

Table 5.140: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

595. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.141   Open ▸ .

Table 5.141: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

596. With a population of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 73.8 to 79.1 additional mortalities represents a 0.125 to 0.134 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
597. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.142   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.142: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

598. The gannet population of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA has increased between its citation level of 32,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
599. The CGR ranges from 0.998 to 0.999. The CPS ranges from 0.945 to 0.949. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives. This is concluded due to both the impacted and unimpacted scenarios predicting the population to be be far greater than the citation population.
600. Therefore, there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

601. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

602. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.143   Open ▸ .

Table 5.143: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

603. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.144   Open ▸ .

Table 5.144: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

604. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 44.9 to 52.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.403 to 0.474 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
605. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.145   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.145: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

606. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults and recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
607. The median CGR is 0.994 to 0.995 (under all scenarios and approaches) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.5% to 0.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.816 to 0.842. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. 

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

608. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
609. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.