Noss SPA

Gannet

610. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.146   Open ▸ .

Table 5.146: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

611. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.147   Open ▸ .

Table 5.147: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

612. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 31.0 to 33.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.113 to 0.123 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
613. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.148   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.148: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

614. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased between its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults and recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
615. The CGR is 0.999 under all scenarios and approaches. The CPS ranges from 0.949 to 0.953. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives. This is concluded due to both the impacted and unimpacted scenarios predicting the population to be far greater than the citation population.
616. Therefore, there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

617. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

618. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.149   Open ▸ .

Table 5.149: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

619. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.150   Open ▸ .

Table 5.150: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

620. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 17.0 to 301.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.165 to 2.925 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
621. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.151   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.151: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

622. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults and recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
623. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.998 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.927 to 0.933. Overall, under this scenario, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
624. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.976 (under the “low” approach) to 0.965 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 2.4% to 3.5% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.411 to 0.281. This level of impact is considered to be high.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

625. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. An assessment of the impact on kittiwake is provided above.
626. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded it was found there will be no discernible impact to kittiwake, and therefore no potential impact on the seabird assemblage.
627. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, then it is likely that the kittiwake population will decline. Kittiwake were a significant portion of the assemblage at designation, consisting 21,170 pairs. As of the Seabirds Count census, this had declined to 5,150 pairs. It is concluded that the magnitude of decline if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included is sufficient that it could adversely affect kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the assemblage. It is also concluded that it could negatively affect the total size of the breeding seabird assemblage population.  
628. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, but there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from the in-combination displacement impact of the Array and other developments including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
629. However, it should be noted that Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm identified an AEOI ‘alone’ for the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA (SSE Renewables, 2022). Therefore, should Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm proceed, then its impact on the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA will be fully mitigated and should not be included in the Array ‘in-combination’ assessment.
630. On this basis, it is appropriate to not include Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm in the in-combination assessment for this particular site and feature, in which case there is no AEOI alone or in-combination for the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA.

                        St Kilda SPA

Gannet

631. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.152   Open ▸ .

Table 5.152: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

632. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.153   Open ▸ .

Table 5.153: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

633. With a population of 120,580 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 2.3 to 3.4 additional mortalities represents a 0.002 to 0.003 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of St Kilda SPA resulting from collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

634. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Kilda SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

Kittiwake

635. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.154   Open ▸ .

Table 5.154: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

636. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.155   Open ▸ .

Table 5.155: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

637. With a population of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 55.9 to 69.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.263 to 0.329 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
638. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.156   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.156: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

639. The kittiwake population of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA has decreased between its citation level of 63,200 breeding adults and recent counts of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
640. The median CGR is 0.996 to 0.997 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.3% to 0.4% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.869 to 0.894. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
641. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

642. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
643. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Conclusion

644. It is concluded that the Array area in-combination with other plans and projects would have an adverse effects on certain qualifying features for several sites, as a result of collision risk impacts during the operation and maintenance phase, which could therefore undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5.157   Open ▸ . An assessment of the impact of collision risk against each relevant conservation objective is presentedTable 5‑156, where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.157: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Collision during the Operation and Maintenance Phase

645. As detailed in Table 5.157   Open ▸ , adverse effects on the qualifying seabird features of seven SPAs were identified. This is the result of impacts which would undermine the conservation objective to maintain or restore the populations of the features of the SPA as a result of in-combination collision during operation and maintenance phase activities.
646. There is risk therefore of undermining the following Conservation Objectives of the sites:

• Maintain the long term population of the species as a viable component of the site: Given the level of impact arising from collision risk from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to influence the population of designated features as viable components of:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast castle SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

• Maintain the long term distribution of the species within site and avoid significant disturbance of the species: Given the level of impact arising from collision risk from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to disturb the distribution of features within the following SPAs:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        St Abb’s Head to Fast castle SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

647. For all sites considered, there is no risk to undermining the following Conservation Objectives:

• Maintain the long term distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA; and
• Maintain the long term structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species.

5.5.4. Displacement and Collision Combined

648. The apportioned annual mortality rates for displacement and collision are extracted from the relevant information within sections 5.5.2 and 5.5.3, respectively.

                        Operation and maintenance phase

                        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage feature only)

649. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.63   Open ▸ and Table 5.117   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.158   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

Table 5.158: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned To the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

650. With a population of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 70.1 to 100.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.310 to 0.443 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
651. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.159   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.159: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA

652. The kittiwake population of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA has declined significantly between its citation level of 60,904 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 22,590 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), and is assessed as being in “Unfavourable No Change” condition (NatureScot, ND). There have however been recent signs of slight recovery, with 13,547 AONs (27,094 individuals) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al, 2024).
653. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.995 to 0.996 under both the high and low approach if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are included, or 0.996 if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm’s impacts are excluded. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.828 to 0.876 – i.e. the population size would be 12.4% to 17.2% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
654. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

655. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population, and at citation kittiwake was the most numerous breeding species at this site, whilst based on Seabirds Count (Burnell et al., 2023) guillemot are now more numerous. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
656. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Kittiwake

657. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.69   Open ▸ and Table 5.120   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.160   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

Table 5.160: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

658. With a population of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 279.6 to 433.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.571 to 0.886 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
659. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.161   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.161: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

660. The kittiwake population of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA has declined slightly between its citation level of 65,000 breeding adults and recent counts of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), although it is assessed as being in “Favourable Maintained” condition (NatureScot, ND).
661. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR ranges from 0.990 to 0.993. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.687 to 0.784 – i.e. the population size would be 22.6% to 31.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
662. In the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

663. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
664. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Farne Islands SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

665. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.72   Open ▸ and Table 5.123   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.162   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

Table 5.162: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Farne Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

666. With a population of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 13.6 to 54.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.155 to 0.616 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
667. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.163   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.163: Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Kittiwake at the Farne Islands SPA

668. The kittiwake population of the Farne Islands SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 8,241 breeding adults to recent counts of 8,804 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
669. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.993 to 0.998. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.768 to 0.936 – i.e. the population size would be 23.2% to 6.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
670. It should be noted that the approach to assessment of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered highly precautionary, as the simple additive approach has the potential to double count impacts.
671. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario, and it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI on the kittiwake feature of the Farne SPA as a result of displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
672. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, whilst the level of impact is still small, it is no longer considered negligible and the additional mortality from the Array in-combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the size of the kittiwake population. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

673. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population.
674. However, whilst there might be a perceptible negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large impact that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Kittiwake are a minor component of the assemblage, with a citation population of 8,241 breeding adults out of the total assemblage citation population of 163,819 individuals. Other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population at citation was 65,750 breeding adults; the recent Seabirds Count estimated the population size to be 85,816 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
675. Puffin are not considered vulnerable to collision risk and therefore no assessment is presented in this section for combined collision and displacement. However, when assessing the overall impact on the seabird assemblage, consideration also needs to be given to the impact of displacement on puffin, which is presented in section 5.5.2. Those results concluded only a negligible impact to the puffin population as a component of the seabird assemblage.  
676. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Farne Islands SPA.

                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Kittiwake

677. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.78   Open ▸ and Table 5.126   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.164   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

Table 5.164: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

678. With a population of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 484.4 to 569.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.532 to 0.625 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
679. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.165   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.165: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts Combined on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

680. The kittiwake population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 89,040 breeding adults to recent counts of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
681. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.993 to 0.994. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.765 to 0.797 – i.e. the population size would be 20.3% to 23.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
682. Whilst the population has grown slightly from the citation level, the magnitude of the impact is sufficient that it has the potential to adversely affect the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of the combined displacement and collision impact of the Array in combination with other developments.
683. It should be noted that the approach to assessment of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered highly precautionary, as the simple additive approach has the potential to double count impacts.

                        Gannet

684. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.81   Open ▸ and Table 5.129   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.166   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

Table 5.166: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

685. With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 360.1 to 506.7 additional mortalities represents a 1.344 to 1.892 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
686. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.167   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.167: Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

687. The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
688. Under all scenarios and approaches, the CGR ranges from 0.978 to 0.984, and the CPS ranges from 0.445 to 0.564. Whilst the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been growing, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
689. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of combined collision and displacement impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
690. It should, however, be noted that The Array’s contribution to the in-combination collision impact is small, being 1.6 to 4.4 birds per year, or approximately 0.3% to 1.2% of the total impact.
691. It should further be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI, and moreover The Array’s contribution to the total impact would be imperceptible.
692. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
693. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total displacement and collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA.
694. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach, no AEOI would be expected to occur, and the Array could not be stated to be making a material contribution to any in-combination impact.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

695. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The assessments found both species are expected to have an AEOI. In this instance, the magnitude of those impacts is sufficient to indicate that the overall seabird assemblage could be adversely affected.
696. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Forth Islands SPA

Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

697. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.84   Open ▸ and Table 5.132   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.168   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

Table 5.168: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

698. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 33.4 to 93.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.368 to 1.023 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
699. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.169   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.169: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

700. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
701. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.988 to 0.996. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.645 to 0.854 – i.e. the population size would be 14.6% to 35.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
702. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.