Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.90   Open ▸ and Table 5.135   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.170   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.170:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.170: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 696.5 to 1,204.8 additional mortalities represents a 0.463 to 0.800 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.171   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.171:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.171: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 51,844 AOS (103,688 breeding adults), representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is dramatic, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.991 to 0.995. The CPS ranges from 0.712 to 0.822. Whilst the gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA had been growing prior to HPAI, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, which, combined with the impact of HPAI, would be contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of combined collision and displacement impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should, however, be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023) which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI.
  5. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  6. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total displacement and collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA.
  7. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach an AEOI would not be expected to occur.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The gannet population is expected to grow, whilst the kittiwake population is expected to decline. Given the kittiwake population has already declined significantly from its population size at the time the site was designated, this further decline is of a level that has the potential to result in the loss of kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA, resulting from the combined displacement and collision risk, from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Fowlsheugh SPA
                        Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.93   Open ▸ and Table 5.138   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.172   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.172:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.172: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 97.5 to 266.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.347 to 0.949 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.173   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.173:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.173: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.989 to 0.996. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.666 to 0.862 – i.e. the population size would be 13.8% to 33.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. This level of impact is considered small to moderate (depending on the scenario and the approach), and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the seabird assemblage.
  2. Razorbill are not considered vulnerable to collision risk and therefore no assessment is presented in this section for combined collision and displacement. However, when assessing the overall impact on the seabird assemblage, consideration also needs to be given to the impact of displacement on razorbill, which is presented in section 5.5.2. Those results concluded a negligible impact to the razorbill population as a component of the seabird assemblage under the low approach to assessment, or a small impact under the high approach to assessment.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA
                        Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.99   Open ▸ and Table 5.141   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.174   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.174:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.174: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 88.7 to 125.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.150 to 0.211 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.175   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.175:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

Table 5.175: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA has increased between its citation level of 32,800 breeding adults to recent counts of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR is 0.998. The CPS ranges from 0.915 to 0.939. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. It should be noted that even this level of impact is considered overly precautionary. The approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023).
  4. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.102   Open ▸ and Table 5.144   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.176   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.176:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.176: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 53.9 to 78.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.484 to 0.705 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.177   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.177:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.177: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.992 to 0.994 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.6% to 0.8% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.740 to 0.813. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has already decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Noss SPA
Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.105   Open ▸ and Table 5.147   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.178   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.178:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.178: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 37.8 to 55.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.137 to 0.202 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.179   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.179:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

Table 5.179: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased between its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults to recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR is 0.998. The CPS ranges from 0.918 to 0.944. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. It should be noted that even this level of impact is considered overly precautionary. The approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023).
  4. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.108   Open ▸ and Table 5.150   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.180   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.180:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.180: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 22.4 to 405.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.217 to 3.938 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.181   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.181:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Table 5.181: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults to recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.996 to 0.997 which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.3% to 0.4%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.869 to 0.911. Although small, the upper end of the range is a magnitude that may be considered to have a discernible impact on the population. Given the significant decline in the population size from its citation level, even this small impact may be considered to adversely affect the probability of the kittiwake feature meeting the conservation objectives for this site.
  3. However, it should be noted the high level of precaution built into this approach, including the potential double counting as a result of the simple additive approach to combining displacement and collision mortality. Birds that are displaced from the site cannot be subject to collision risk. If a macro avoidance factor of 30% was applied to the collision rates for all projects, then the total impact is likely to drop sufficiently that the impact would be considered negligible. Moreover, the impact from The Array, which is already small, would be further reduced to a level that could be considered imperceptible.
  4. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.972 (under the “low” approach) to 0.953 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 2.8% to 4.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.354 to 0.180. This level of impact is high. Given that the kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that is likely to have an adverse effect on the population continuing to meet the site’s conservation objectives. Whilst there is a high degree of precaution built into the approach, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, even accounting for that precaution an adverse effect remains likely.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded that if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, there would be no significant impact to the kittiwake population (seabird assemblage component only) at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  6. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included then there is a significant impact to the kittiwake population (seabird assemblage component only) of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. An assessment of the impact on kittiwake is provided above.
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded it was found there will be an adverse impact to kittiwake. Whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large affect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained.
  3. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, then it is likely that the kittiwake population will decline more significantly. Kittiwake were a significant portion of the assemblage at designation, consisting 21,170 pairs. As of the Seabirds Count census, this had declined to 5,150 pairs (Burnell et al., 2023). It is concluded that the magnitude of decline if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included is sufficient that it could adversely affect kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the assemblage. It is also concluded that it could negatively affect the total size of the breeding seabird assemblage population.  
  4. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, but there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from the in-combination displacement impact of the Array and other developments including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  5. However, it should be noted that Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm identified an AEOI ‘alone’ for the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA (SSE Renewables, 2022). Therefore, should Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm proceed, then its impact on the kittiwake feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA will be fully mitigated and should not be included in the Array ‘in-combination’ assessment.
  6. On this basis, it is appropriate to not include Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm in the in-combination assessment for this particular site and feature, in which case there is no AEOI alone or in-combination for the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA.
                        St Kilda SPA
Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.111   Open ▸ and Table 5.153   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.182   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.182:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.182: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 120,580 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 2.8 to 4.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.002 to 0.004 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of St Kilda SPA resulting from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Kilda SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.113   Open ▸ and Table 5.155   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.183   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.183:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.183: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 68.1 to 112.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.321 to 0.529 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.184   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.184:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

Table 5.184: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA has decreased between its citation level of 63,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.994 to 0.996 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.4% to 0.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.798 to 0.872. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of displacement and collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Conclusion

  1. It is concluded that the Array area in-combination with other plans and projects would have an adverse effects on certain qualifying features for several sites, as a result of the combined impact of collision risk and displacement during the operation and maintenance phase, which could therefore undermine the conservation objectives of the SPAs listed in Table 5‑18. An assessment of the impact of collision risk and displacement against each relevant conservation objective is presented in Table 5‑18, where the justifications and supporting evidence are the same for more than one conservation objective, the assessments have been grouped.

Table 5.185:
Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision During the Operation and Maintenance Phase

Table 5.185: Conclusions Against the Conservation Objectives of SPAs for In-Combination Combined Displacement and Collision During the Operation and Maintenance Phase

 

  1. As detailed in Table 5.185   Open ▸ , adverse effects on the qualifying seabird features of seven SPAs were identified. This is the result of impacts which would undermine the conservation objective to maintain or restore the populations of the features of the SPA as a result of in-combination combined collision and displacement during operation and maintenance phase activities.
  2. There is risk therefore of undermining the following Conservation Objectives of the sites:
  • Maintain the long term population of the species as a viable component of the site: Given the level of impact arising from collision and disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to influence the population of designated features as viable components of:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Forth Islands SPA (gannet and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

  • Maintain the long term distribution of the species within site and avoid significant disturbance of the species: Given the level of impact arising from collision and disturbance and displacement from the Array area, there is potential for the Array to disturb the distribution of features within the following SPAs:

-        Buchan Ness to Collieston Coast SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        East Caithness Cliffs SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake);

-        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA (gannet, kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Forth Islands SPA (gannet and seabird assemblage with regards to gannet and kittiwake);

-        Fowlsheugh SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake and razorbill);

-        North Caithness Cliffs SPA (seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake); and

-        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Heads SPA (kittiwake and seabird assemblage with regards to kittiwake).

  1. For all sites considered, there is no risk to undermining the following Conservation Objectives:
  • Maintain the long term distribution and extent of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to impact on the distribution and extent of habitats within the SPA; and
  • Maintain the long term structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species: As the Array and associated ZoI falls outside the SPA boundary, there is no potential for the Array to influence the structure, function and supporting processes of habitats supporting the species.