Coquet Island SPA

Puffin (seabird assemblage component only)

The source information regarding puffin disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.65 Open ▸ .

Table 5.65: Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Coquet Island SPA From Other Relevant Projects

Project(s)	Data Source	Approach	Adult Mortalities
Project(s)	Data Source	Approach	Breeding Season	Non-breeding Season	Annual Total
UK North Sea projects	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping A	3.6	N/A	3.6
UK North Sea projects	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping B	6.0	N/A	6.0
UK North Sea projects	SSE Renewables (2022)	Developer	1.0	N/A	1.0
Pentland Floating Offshore Wind	Xodus Group Ltd (2022)	N/A	0.0	0.0	0.0
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm (2023)	SNCB Low (60% disp 3% mort)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm (2023)	SNCB High (60% disp 5% mort)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm (2023)	Developer (50% disp 1% mort)	N/A	0.0	0.0
West of Orkney Wind Farm	Offshore Wind Power Limited (2023)	Low	0.0	0.5	0.5
West of Orkney Wind Farm	Offshore Wind Power Limited (2023)	Mid	0.0	1.1	1.1
West of Orkney Wind Farm	Offshore Wind Power Limited (2023)	High	0.0	1.6	1.6
Outer Dowsing	Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind (2023)	30% disp & 1% mort	0.7	0.4	1.1
Outer Dowsing	Outer Dowsing Offshore Wind (2023)	70% disp & 10% mort	15.9	8.7	24.6
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping A (60% disp 3% mort)	3.6	N/A	3.6
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping B (60% disp 5% mort)	6.0	N/A	6.0
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone	SSE Renewables (2022)	Developer (50% disp 1% mort)	1.0	N/A	1.0

From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.66 Open ▸ .

Table 5.66: Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Coquet Island SPA In-Combination Totals

Project(s)	Adult Mortalities
	Breeding Season		Non-Breeding Season		Annual Total
	Low	High	Low	High	Low	High
UK North Sea projects	1.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	6.0
Moray West	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
West of Orkney Wind Farm	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.6	0.5	1.6
Pentland Floating Offshore Wind	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Outer Dowsing	0.7	15.9	0.4	8.7	1.1	24.6
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	1.0	6.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	6.0
Ossian	1.6	9.9	N/A	N/A	1.6	9.9
Total (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm)	3.3	31.8	0.9	10.3	4.3	42.1
Total (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm)	2.3	25.8	0.9	10.3	3.3	36.1

With a population of 50,058 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 3.3 to 42.1 additional mortalities represents a 0.007 to 0.084 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out to further assess the total in-combination impact.
The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.67 Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.67: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Coquet Island SPA

Scenario	Approach	Adult Mortality	Citation Population (Breeding Adults)	Recent Population (Burnell et al., 2023) (Breeding Adults)	Median Unimpacted Population After 35 Years	Median Impacted Population After 35 Years	Median CGR	Median CPS
Including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	Low	4.3	31,686	50,058	12,621	12,605	1.000	0.996
Including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	High	42.1				12,258	0.999	0.965
Excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	Low	3.3				12,694	1.000	0.997
Excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	High	36.1				12,330	0.999	0.970

The puffin population of the Coquet Island SPA has increased significantly between its citation level of 31,686 breeding adults and recent counts of 50,058 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
Whilst the PVA results indicate a significant population decline from the current level even under the counterfactual scenario, given the positive growth observed at this site in recent years, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR. The limitations of the PVA model and available demographic parameters to specify as inputs mean that CPS and CGR are considered the most reliable metrics, as further detailed in appendix 3B. The median CGR is, for all scenarios and approaches, 0.999 to 1.000 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.1% or less. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.965 to 0.997. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the puffin population compared to the counterfactual scenario.

Breeding Seabird Assemblage

Of the components of the seabird assemblage, puffin was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no significant impact on the puffin population. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Coquet Island SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Kittiwake

The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.68 Open ▸ .

Table 5.68: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Project(s)	Data source	Approach	Adult Mortalities
Project(s)	Data source	Approach	Pre-breeding Season	Breeding Season	Post-breeding	Annual Total
UK North Sea projects	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping A	16	32.6	10.5	59.1
UK North Sea projects	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping B	48	97.7	31.4	177.1
UK North Sea projects	SSE Renewables (2022)	Developer	N/A	65.1	N/A	65.1
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm (2023)	30% disp 1% mort	0	0.1	0	0.1
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm (2023)	30% disp 3% mort	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.4
West of Orkney Wind Farm	Offshore Wind Power Limited (2023)	Already combined with collision	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.0
Pentland Floating Offshore Wind	Xodus Group Ltd (2022)	N/A	0	0.16	0	0.2
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping A (30% disp 1% mort)	3.1	0	2	5.1
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone	SSE Renewables (2022)	Scoping B (30% disp 3% mort)	9.5	0.1	5.9	15.5
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm alone	SSE Renewables (2022)	Developer (30% disp 2% mort)	N/A	0.1	N/A	0.1

From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.69 Open ▸ .

Table 5.69: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the East Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Project(s)	Adult Mortalities
	Pre-Breeding Season		Breeding Season		Post-Breeding Season		Annual Total
	Low	High	Low	High	Low	High	Low	High
UK North Sea projects	16.0	48.0	32.6	97.7	10.5	31.4	59.1	177.1
Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4
West of Orkney Wind Farm	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Pentland Floating Offshore Wind	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2
Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	3.1	9.5	0.0	0.1	2.0	5.9	5.1	15.5
Ossian	0.1	0.4	0.5	1.4	0.1	0.3	0.7	2.1
Total (Including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm)	16.1	48.5	33.3	99.4	10.6	31.8	60.1	179.7
Total (Excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm)	13.0	39.0	33.3	99.3	8.6	25.9	55.0	164.2

With a population of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 55.0 to 179.7 additional mortalities represent a 0.112 to 0.367 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.70 Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

Table 5.70: Summary of PVA results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the East Caithness Cliffs SPA

Scenario	Approach	Adult Mortality	Citation Population (Breeding Adults)	Recent Population (Burnell et al., 2023) (Breeding Adults)	Median Unimpacted Population After 35 Years	Median Impacted Population After 35 Years	Median CGR	Median CPS
Including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	Low	60.1	65,000	48,958	46,244	43,859	0.999	0.949
Including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	High	179.7				39,446	0.996	0.855
Excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	Low	55.0				44,109	0.999	0.954
Excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm	High	164.2				40,063	0.996	0.866

The kittiwake population of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA has declined slightly from its citation level of 65,000 breeding adults, with recent counts of 48,958 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), although it is assessed as being in “Favourable Maintained” condition (NatureScot, ND).
The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.999 under the “low” approach (whether including or excluding the impact of Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) and 0.996 under the “high” approach (whether including or excluding the impact of Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm). This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.855 to 0.954 – i.e. the population size would be 4.6% to 14.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the East Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

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