Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.83   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.83:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.83: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.84   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.84:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.84: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 7.7 to 33.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.085 to 0.371 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.85   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.85:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.85: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.996 to 0.999. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.853 to 0.964 – i.e. the population size would be 3.6% to 14.7% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Under the “low” approach, whether or not Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the magnitude of the impact is considered to be negligible. However, under the “high” approach, the impact, whilst small, is of a magnitude that cannot be considered negligible. Given the population has already declined from its citation level, even this small impact has the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.
                        Puffin
  1. The source information regarding puffin disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.86   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.86:
Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.86: Puffin Disturbance Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.87   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.87:
Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.87: Puffin Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 85,846 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 46.7 to 294.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.054 to 0.343 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.88   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.88:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.88: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Puffin at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The puffin population of the Forth Islands SPA has increased between its citation level of 28,000 breeding adults and recent counts of 87,504 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Whilst the PVA results indicate a significant population decline from the current level, given the beneficial growth observed at this site in recent years, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR, as explained in appendix 3B.
  3. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.999 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.975 to 0.977. Overall, therefore, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the puffin population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  4. Under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.996 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.4% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.865 to 0.878. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. However, given that the puffin population of the Forth Islands SPA has increased dramatically, the magnitude of impact is insufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population continuing to meet the site’s conservation objectives.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the puffin feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.
  6. It is noted that the Scottish Ministers were unable to conclude no AEOI for the puffin feature of Forth Islands SPA from the Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm in-combination with other North Sea wind farms (Scottish Government, 2024). However, that conclusion was based on Green Volt’s PVA result indicating a CPS of 0.372 and CGR of 0.973, which represents a level of impact substantially higher than the predicted PVA impact demonstrated in this RIAA in Table 5.88   Open ▸ (CGR ranging from 0.999 to 0.996). Therefore, the conclusion drawn by the Scottish Ministers for the puffin feature of the Forth Islands in the Green Volt Offshore Wind Farm Appropriate Assessment (Appendix B of Scottish Government, 2024) does not affect the conclusion of no potential for AEOI drawn for this RIAA.  

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.89   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.89:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.89: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.90   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.90:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.90: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 121.9 to 457.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.081 to 0.304 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.91   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.91:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.91: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 51,844 AOS (103,688 breeding adults), representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is dramatic, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.996 to 0.999. The CPS ranges from 0.879 to 0.966. Given the significant growth of the gannet population prior to the HPAI outbreak, and given recent evidence that the population size is growing again, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding assemblage, a potential LSE2 was identified for kittiwake, puffin and gannet. For each of those species, an assessment of the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments is provided above. It is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature nor to the puffin feature. Kittiwake is not a feature of the site in its own right and is only included as a component of the assemblage. It was concluded that there is a potential for an adverse effect on the population size of the kittiwake feature under the High approach to assessment.
  2. However, whilst, under the most precautionary approach to assessment, there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small.Under the high approach to assessment including Berwick Bank, the CPS is 0.853, which indicates a population size 14.7% smaller than the counterfactual. Whilst such a decline may be distinguishable from natural variation, it is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Even if slightly lower in abundance, kittiwake would still be present as a functional breeding component of the site. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, the impact on the overall seabird assemblage size would be negligible, and not of a magnitude that would be detectable compared to natural variation, when considering the amount of variation that could arise across all component species (as noted above, both gannet and puffin have shown substantial population growth compared to their citation abundances). It should also be reiterated that the displacement and mortality rates applied under the “High” approach to assessment are not considered compatible with the best available science (see section 5.2.2). Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA.

                        Fowlsheugh SPA

                        Kittiwake

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.92   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.92:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.92: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.93   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.93:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.93: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 17.1 to 83.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.061 to 0.296 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.94   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.94:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.94: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
  2. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.999 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.958 to 0.974. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.997 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.998 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.882 to 0.925. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Razorbill (seabird assemblage component only)

  1. The source information regarding razorbill disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.95   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.95:
Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.95: Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.96   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.96:
Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.96: Razorbill Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 18,844 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 20.2 to 130.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.107 to 0.693 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.97   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.97:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Razorbill at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.97: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Razorbill at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The razorbill population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has increased between its citation level of 5,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 18,844 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Whilst the PVA results indicate a significant population decline from the current level, given the positive growth observed to date, that outcome is considered implausible for this site and so the assessment relies on the CPS and CGR.
  3. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.998 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.999 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.1% to 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.946 to 0.956. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the razorbill population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  4. However, under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.992 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.993 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.7% to 0.8% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.746 to 0.785. This level of impact is moderate, and despite the population growth observed to date, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. However, razorbill is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage at Fowlsheugh SPA, a potential LSE2 was identified only for kittiwake and razorbill. Assessments of the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments for those components are presented above.
  2. Under the low approach to assessment, the impact for both species is deemed to be negligible, and so it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI of the seabird assemblage feature.
  3. However, under the high approach to assessment, it was found that the population of both kittiwake and razorbill components could be expected to decline significantly. Given this impact on two of the five named components of the assemblage, it is concluded that, under the high approach to assessment, there is a potential for an AEOI on the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA.

                        Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.98   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.98:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.98: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.99   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.99:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.99: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 14.9 to 45.9 additional mortalities represents a 0.025 to 0.078 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.100   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.100:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

Table 5.100: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA has increased between its citation level of 32,800 breeding adults to recent counts of 59,124 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.999 to 1.000. The CPS ranges from 0.968 to 0.990. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Hermaness, Saxa Vord and Valla Field SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        North Caithness Cliffs SPA

                        Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.101   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.101:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.101: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.102   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.102:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.102: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 9.0 to 25.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.080 to 0.231 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.103   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.103:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.103: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Under the “low” approach, the median CGR is 0.999 (whether including or excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.1%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.961 to 0.906. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, under the “high” approach, the median CGR is 0.997 (including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) to 0.998 (excluding Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.2% to 0.3% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.906 to 0.919. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population. However, kittiwake is not a qualifying feature it its own right, and instead only qualifies as a named component of the breeding seabird assemblage.
  4. Recent surveys indicate that kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA have not been harmed by HPAI, and indeed the population appears to be growing. Considering matched sites within the North Caithness Cliffs SPA, the population of kittiwakes has increased from 5,299 AON in the Seabird Count data collection period to 7,481 AON in 2023, a 40% increase (Tremlett et al., 2024). (Note that not all sites were surveyed in 2023, and therefore these figures do not represent the full SPA population).

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA, a potential LSE2 was identified only for kittiwake, for which an assessment has been provided above.
  2. Under the low approach to assessment, the impact of displacement from the Array in-combination with other developments was found to make no material impact, and therefore it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA.
  3. Under the high approach to assessment, it was concluded that the kittiwake population might be adversely affected. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of displacement impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.  

                        Noss SPA

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.104   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.104:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.104: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.105   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.105:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.105: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 6.7 to 21.7 additional mortalities represents a 0.025 to 0.079 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.106   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.106:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

Table 5.106: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased from its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults to recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.999 to 1.000. The CPS ranges from 0.967 to 0.990. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

                        Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.107   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.107:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.107: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.108   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.108:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.108: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 5.3 to 104.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.052 to 1.013 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.109   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.109:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Table 5.109: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults and recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.999 to 0.998 which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.1% to 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.979 to 0.937. Overall, under this scenario, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.996 (under the “low” approach) to 0.988 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.4% to 1.2% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.865 to 0.648. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. An assessment of the impact on kittiwake is provided above.
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded it was found there will be no material impact to kittiwake, and therefore no potential impact on the seabird assemblage. However, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, then it is likely that the kittiwake population will decline. Kittiwake were a significant portion of the assemblage at designation, consisting 21,170 pairs. As of the Seabirds Count census, this had declined to 5,150 pairs. It is concluded that the magnitude of decline if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included is sufficient that it could adversely affect kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the assemblage. It is also concluded that it could negatively affect the total size of the breeding seabird assemblage population.  
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, but there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from the in-combination displacement impact of the Array and other developments including Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm.

                        St Kilda SPA

                        Gannet

  1. The source information regarding gannet disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.110   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.110:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.110: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.111   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.111:
Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.111: Gannet Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the St Kilda SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 120,580 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 0.4 to 1.4 additional mortalities represents a 0.000 to 0.001 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the gannet feature of St Kilda SPA resulting from displacement impact from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for displacement. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the St Kilda SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

                        Kittiwake

  1. The source information regarding kittiwake disturbance mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.112   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.112:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.112: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA from Other Relevant Projects

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.113   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.113:
Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.113: Kittiwake Displacement Mortalities Apportioned to the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al, 2023), 12.1 to 42.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.057 to 0.199 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.114   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.114:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

Table 5.114: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement Impacts on Kittiwake at the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA has decreased between its citation level of 63,200 breeding adults and recent counts of 21,232 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.998 to 0.999 which indicates the population growth rate declines no more than 0.2%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.918 to 0.976. Overall, under this approach, the impact of displacement from the Array in combination with other projects is predicted to make no material impact on the kittiwake population compared to the counterfactual scenario.
  3. Therefore, it can be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no risk of an AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA resulting from displacement impact from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for displacement. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the kittiwake feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt,that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Troup, Pennan and Lion’s Head SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.