Breeding Seabird Assemblage
  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for combined displacement and collision. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population.
  2. However, whilst there might be a perceptible negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large impact that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Kittiwake are a minor component of the assemblage, with a citation population of 8,241 breeding adults out of the total assemblage citation population of 163,819 individuals. Other components of the assemblage have increased in population, for example the guillemot population at citation was 65,750 breeding adults; the recent Seabirds Count estimated the population size to be 85,816 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  3. Puffin are not considered vulnerable to collision risk and therefore no assessment is presented in this section for combined collision and displacement. However, when assessing the overall impact on the seabird assemblage, consideration also needs to be given to the impact of displacement on puffin, which is presented in section 5.5.2. Those results concluded only a negligible impact to the puffin population as a component of the seabird assemblage.  
  4. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Farne Islands SPA.
                        Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.78   Open ▸ and Table 5.126   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.164   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.164:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.164: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 484.4 to 569.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.532 to 0.625 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.165   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.165:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts Combined on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.165: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts Combined on Kittiwake at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased slightly from its citation level of 89,040 breeding adults to recent counts of 91,008 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.993 to 0.994. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.765 to 0.797 – i.e. the population size would be 20.3% to 23.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst the population has grown slightly from the citation level, the magnitude of the impact is sufficient that it has the potential to adversely affect the population. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of the combined displacement and collision impact of the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should be noted that the approach to assessment of combined displacement and collision impacts is considered highly precautionary, as the simple additive approach has the potential to double count impacts.
                        Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.81   Open ▸ and Table 5.129   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.166   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.166:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.166: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 360.1 to 506.7 additional mortalities represents a 1.344 to 1.892 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.167   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.167:
Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

Table 5.167: Summary of PVA Results for Combined Displacement and Collision Impacts In-Combination on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. Under all scenarios and approaches, the CGR ranges from 0.978 to 0.984, and the CPS ranges from 0.445 to 0.564. Whilst the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been growing, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of combined collision and displacement impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  4. It should, however, be noted that The Array’s contribution to the in-combination collision impact is small, being 1.6 to 4.4 birds per year, or approximately 0.3% to 1.2% of the total impact.
  5. It should further be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI, and moreover The Array’s contribution to the total impact would be imperceptible.
  6. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  7. Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total displacement and collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA.
  8. However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach, no AEOI would be expected to occur, and the Array could not be stated to be making a material contribution to any in-combination impact.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The assessments found both species are expected to have an AEOI. In this instance, the magnitude of those impacts is sufficient to indicate that the overall seabird assemblage could be adversely affected.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        Forth Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.84   Open ▸ and Table 5.132   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.168   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.168:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.168: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 33.4 to 93.0 additional mortalities represents a 0.368 to 1.023 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.169   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.169:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.169: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.988 to 0.996. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.645 to 0.854 – i.e. the population size would be 14.6% to 35.5% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.