North Caithness Cliffs SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.102   Open ▸ and Table 5.144   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.176   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.176:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.176: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the North Caithness Cliffs SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 53.9 to 78.5 additional mortalities represents a 0.484 to 0.705 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.177   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.177:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

Table 5.177: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the North Caithness Cliffs SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has decreased between its citation level of 26,200 breeding adults to recent counts of 11,142 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The median CGR is 0.992 to 0.994 which indicates the population growth rate declines by 0.6% to 0.8% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.740 to 0.813. This level of impact is small, but considered of sufficient magnitude to be distinguishable from natural fluctuations. Given that the kittiwake population of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA has already decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that could be said to have an adverse effect on the population.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population (Burnell et al., 2023). Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the overall assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the North Caithness Cliffs SPA as a result of the impact of combined displacement and collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Noss SPA
Gannet
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.105   Open ▸ and Table 5.147   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.178   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.178:
Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.178: Gannet Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Noss SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 37.8 to 55.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.137 to 0.202 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.179   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.179:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

Table 5.179: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Noss SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Noss SPA has increased between its citation level of 13,720 breeding adults to recent counts of 27,530 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. The CGR is 0.998. The CPS ranges from 0.918 to 0.944. When considering the growth of the gannet population within the Noss SPA, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. It should be noted that even this level of impact is considered overly precautionary. The approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023).
  4. Similarly, the displacement impact will be overestimated, as any birds that suffer mortality as a result of collision could not also be subject to displacement impacts.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the gannet feature of the Noss SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, gannet was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified. As detailed above, there is expected to be no AEOI on the gannet feature. Therefore, it can also be concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Noss SPA as a result of combined displacement and collision from the Array in combination with other developments.
                        St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
  1. The combined mortality from displacement and collision (using a simple additive approach of the values in Table 5.108   Open ▸ and Table 5.150   Open ▸ ) is presented in Table 5.180   Open ▸ . The approach sums the collision and disturbance impacts, with potential for double counting inherent in that approach.

 

Table 5.180:
Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.180: Kittiwake Combined Displacement and Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 22.4 to 405.6 additional mortalities represents a 0.217 to 3.938 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.181   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.181:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

Table 5.181: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Displacement and Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased between its citation level of 42,340 breeding adults to recent counts of 10,300 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
  2. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, the median CGR is 0.996 to 0.997 which indicates the population growth rate declines 0.3% to 0.4%. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.869 to 0.911. Although small, the upper end of the range is a magnitude that may be considered to have a discernible impact on the population. Given the significant decline in the population size from its citation level, even this small impact may be considered to adversely affect the probability of the kittiwake feature meeting the conservation objectives for this site.
  3. However, it should be noted the high level of precaution built into this approach, including the potential double counting as a result of the simple additive approach to combining displacement and collision mortality. Birds that are displaced from the site cannot be subject to collision risk. If a macro avoidance factor of 30% was applied to the collision rates for all projects, then the total impact is likely to drop sufficiently that the impact would be considered negligible. Moreover, the impact from The Array, which is already small, would be further reduced to a level that could be considered imperceptible.
  4. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, the median CGR is 0.972 (under the “low” approach) to 0.953 (under the “high” approach) which indicates the population growth rate declines by 2.8% to 4.6% compared to the counterfactual. After 35 years (the expected lifespan of the Array), the CPS ranges from 0.354 to 0.180. This level of impact is high. Given that the kittiwake population of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA has decreased significantly from its citation level, the magnitude of impact is sufficient to create an impact that is likely to have an adverse effect on the population continuing to meet the site’s conservation objectives. Whilst there is a high degree of precaution built into the approach, if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included, even accounting for that precaution an adverse effect remains likely.
  5. Therefore, it is concluded that if Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is excluded, there would be no significant impact to the kittiwake population (seabird assemblage component only) at the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
  6. If Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm is included then there is a significant impact to the kittiwake population (seabird assemblage component only) of the St Abb’s Head to Fast Castle SPA from combined displacement and collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.