Gannet
- The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.128 Open ▸ .
Table 5.128: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA from Other Relevant Projects
*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.
- From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.129 Open ▸ .
Table 5.129: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA In-Combination Totals
- With a population of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 286.7 to 293.2 additional mortalities represents a 1.0671 to 1.095 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
- The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.130 Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.
Table 5.130: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA
- The gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has increased between its citation level of 16,938 breeding adults and recent counts of 26,784 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
- Under all scenarios and approaches, the CGR is 0.987, and the CPS ranges from 0.627 to 0.634. Whilst the gannet population of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA has been growing, this is a magnitude of impact that could lead to a population decline, contrary to the conservation objectives of the site.
- Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
- It should, however, be noted that The Array’s contribution to the in-combination collision impact is small, being 0.8 to 2.3 birds per year, or approximately 0.3 to 0.8% of the total impact.
- It should further be noted that the approach to collision risk modelling used by both the Array and many other developments considered in the in-combination totals do not incorporate a macro-avoidance factor, in line with the current guidance from NatureScot. Natural England advise to apply a 65-85% macro avoidance rate when modelling gannet collisions (MD-LOT, 2023), which would reduce the collision mortality by the same amount. NatureScot have indicated they are reviewing their position on this matter (MD-LOT, 2023). If a 65-85% macro avoidance rate was applied, the overall impact would most likely no longer be a magnitude that could be considered to cause an AEOI, and moreover the Array’s contribution to the total impact would be imperceptible.
- Therefore, under the current approach to assessment, it must be concluded that the in-combination total collision risk reaches a magnitude that would be an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA.
- However, this approach is considered highly over-precautionary, and under a more realistic approach, no AEOI would be expected to occur, and The Array could not be stated to be making a material contribution to any in-combination impact.
Breeding Seabird Assemblage
- Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The assessments found both species are expected to have an AEOI. In this instance, the magnitude of those impacts is sufficient to indicate that the overall seabird assemblage could, under the most precautionary (“high”) approach to assessment, be adversely affected.
- Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Flamborough and Filey Coast SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in combination with other developments.
Forth Islands SPA
Kittiwake (seabird assemblage component only)
- The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.131 Open ▸ .
Table 5.131: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects
*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.
- From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.132 Open ▸ .
Table 5.132: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals
- With a population of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 25.7 to 59.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.283 to 0.652 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
- The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.133 Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.
Table 5.133: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Forth Islands SPA
- The kittiwake population of the Forth Islands SPA has decreased between its citation level of 16,800 breeding adults and recent counts of 9,084 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023).
- The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.992 to 0.997. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.757 to 0.887 – i.e. the population size would be 11.3% to 24.3% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
- Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the kittiwake population.