Gannet
  1. The source information regarding gannet collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.134   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.134:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.134: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.135   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.135:
Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.135: Gannet Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Forth Islands SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 150,518 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 574.7 to 747.2 additional mortalities represents a 0.382 to 0.496 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.136   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.136:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

Table 5.136: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Gannet at the Forth Islands SPA

 

  1. The gannet population of the Forth Islands SPA increased significantly from its citation level of 43,200 breeding adults to counts of 150,518 breeding adults from the census conducted in 2014 as part of the gannet census (Burnell et al., 2023). However, that data pre-dates the HPAI outbreak. Counts conducted in 2023 estimate the gannet population of Bass Rock to be 103,688 breeding adults, representing a significant decline (Harris et al., 2023). Whilst this decline is substantial, the population remains above its citation level, and the available evidence suggests that the population is already showing signs of recovery (Tyndall et al., 2024). It is evident from the prior growth that there are ample suitable nesting sites on Bass Rock, and sufficient prey within foraging range to support a larger population. Therefore, it would be expected that the population will be able to rapidly recover.
  2. The CGR ranges from 0.994 to 0.996. The CPS ranges from 0.810 to 0.851. When considering the dramatic and sustained growth of the gannet population within the Forth Islands SPA prior to the HPAI outbreak and the anticipated recovery, this level of impact is not of a magnitude that is expected to adversely affect the population from meeting its conservation objectives.
  3. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the gannet feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of displacement from the Array in combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the breeding seabird assemblage, only kittiwake and gannet were found to have any potential LSE2 for collision risk. The assessments for these species are presented above. The gannet population is expected to grow, whilst the kittiwake population is expected to decline. However, whilst there might be a negative effect on the kittiwake population, the magnitude of that effect is small. It is not considered a sufficiently large effect that it could be said to adversely affect the probability of kittiwake being maintained as a viable component of the seabird assemblage. Furthermore, as kittiwake is the only species being significantly impacted, it could not be said to adversely affect the probability of the total seabird assemblage being maintained. Therefore, it is concluded, beyond reasonable scientific doubt, that there is no potential for an AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Forth Islands SPA as a result of collision risk from the Array in-combination with other developments.
                        Fowlsheugh SPA
Kittiwake
  1. The source information regarding kittiwake collision mortality from other relevant projects is given in Table 5.137   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.137:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

Table 5.137: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA from Other Relevant Projects

*Apportioned impacts only presented on an annual basis in source document.

 

  1. From this information, the various approaches have been consolidated into a “low” and a “high” estimate for the total in-combination impact. This is presented in Table 5.138   Open ▸ .

 

Table 5.138:
Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

Table 5.138: Kittiwake Collision Mortalities Apportioned to the Fowlsheugh SPA In-Combination Totals

 

  1. With a population of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023), 80.3 to 183.3 additional mortalities represents a 0.286 to 0.653 percentage point increase in mortality rates. Therefore, PVA has been carried out both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm and for the high and low scenarios, to further assess the total in-combination impact.
  2. The PVA results are summarised in Table 5.139   Open ▸ . Full details are available in appendix 3B.

 

Table 5.139:
Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

Table 5.139: Summary of PVA Results for In-Combination Collision Impacts on Kittiwake at the Fowlsheugh SPA

 

  1. The kittiwake population of the Fowlsheugh SPA has decreased between its citation level of 73,300 breeding adults and Seabird Census counts of 28,078 breeding adults (Burnell et al., 2023). However, more recent counts, that were conducted following the HPAI outbreak, indicate the population may be increasing again, with 15,443 AON (30,966 breeding adults) recorded in 2023 (Tremlett et al., 2024).
  2. The PVA results show that the kittiwake population is expected to remain relatively stable under the counterfactual (no impact) scenario. Under the impacted scenarios, the CGR is 0.992 to 0.997. This leads to a CPS after 35 years of 0.756 to 0.884 – i.e. the population size would be 11.6% to 24.4% smaller than the counterfactual population size.
  3. Whilst this level of impact is small, it is not negligible and in the context of a population that is already declining, the additional mortality from the Array in combination with other projects and plans would appear to have the potential to adversely affect the likelihood of the site meeting its conservation objectives for all assessment scenarios and both with and without Berwick Bank Offshore Wind Farm. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the kittiwake feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of collision impacts from the Array in-combination with other developments.

                        Breeding Seabird Assemblage

  1. Of the components of the seabird assemblage, kittiwake was the only species for which a potential LSE2 was identified for collision risk. As detailed above, there is expected to be a significant impact on the kittiwake population. The kittiwake population at citation was significantly higher than the current population. Whilst the magnitude of the impact would not be deemed sufficient to risk entirely losing kittiwake as a viable component of the assemblage, the decline is sufficient to adversely affect the total population size of the seabird assemblage.
  2. Therefore, it is concluded that there is a potential AEOI to the seabird assemblage feature of the Fowlsheugh SPA as a result of the impact of collision from the Array in-combination with other developments.