6. Economic Impact of PDE Option 3 (Commitment)
6.1. Construction
6.1.1. Ossian Impact
- Based on the estimated expenditure for Ossian as a whole, the technical expert’s model of costs and the information provided in the SCDS it was assumed that under PDE Option 3 the construction phase spend in Scotland could be £3.7 billion (35% of total expenditure) and in the UK it could be £4.7 billion (45%), which is shown in Table 6.1. The largest expenditure is associated with the manufacture of floating foundations.
Table 6.1: PDE Option 3: Ossian Construction Spending by Category, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK (Inc. Scotland) | Total (Scotland, rUK and rWorld) |
|---|---|---|---|
Wind Turbine | £777 m | £1,217 m | £3,593 m |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £1,833 m | £1,833 m | £2,234 m |
Cables Supply | £0 m | £147 m | £1,265 m |
Offshore Cable Installation | £187 m | £262 m | £1,249 m |
Floating Foundations Installation | £180 m | £215 m | £505 m |
OSP | £339 m | £433 m | £471 m |
Development and Consenting Services | £313 m | £313 m | £455 m |
Floating Mooring Systems | £78 m | £156 m | £390 m |
Onshore Substation | £0 m | £129 m | £280 m |
Onshore Cable Installation | £0 m | £34 m | £34 m |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £7 m | £7 m | £7 m |
Total | £3,715 m | £4,747 m | £10,483 m |
Total (%) | 35% | 45% | 100% |
- Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the direct economic of the Array could be £1.5 billion and 22,180 years of employment in Scotland and £1.9 billion GVA and 27,790 years of employment in the UK (Table 6.2).
Table 6.2: PDE Option 3: Ossian Construction Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVA | Years of Employment | GVA | Years of Employment |
Wind Turbine | £314 m | 4,710 | £486 m | 7,260 |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £723 m | 10,430 | £723 m | 10,430 |
Cables Supply | £0 m | 0 | £54 m | 750 |
Offshore Cable Installation | £48 m | 590 | £67 m | 820 |
Floating Foundations Installation | £74 m | 1,290 | £86 m | 1,450 |
OSP | £185 m | 2,890 | £236 m | 3,690 |
Development and Consenting Services | £111 m | 1,730 | £111 m | 1,730 |
Floating Mooring Systems | £35 m | 530 | £70 m | 1,050 |
Onshore Substation | £0 m | 0 | £41 m | 470 |
Onshore Cable Installation | £0 m | 0 | £11 m | 120 |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £2 m | 30 | £2 m | 30 |
Total | £1,493 m | 22,180 | £1,887 m | 27,790 |
- Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the total economic impact could be £2.5 billion GVA and 37,170 years of employment in Scotland, and £4.9 billion GVA and 70,310 years of employment in the UK (Table 6.3) (Table 6.4).
Table 6.3: PDE Option 3: Ossian Construction GVA impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct GVA | £1,493 m | £1,887 m |
Indirect GVA | £562 m | £1,537 m |
Induced GVA | £462 m | £1,507 m |
Total GVA | £2,517 m | £4,932 m |
Table 6.4: PDE Option 3: Ossian Construction Employment impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct Years of Employment | 22,180 | 27,790 |
Indirect Years of Employment | 8,950 | 21,080 |
Induced Years of Employment | 6,040 | 21,440 |
Total Years of Employment | 37,170 | 70,310 |
6.1.2. Array Impact
- For the Array it was estimated that the total spend could be £8.0 billion, of which £3.4 billion (43%) could be secured in Scotland and £4.2 billion (52%) could be secured in the UK (Table 6.5).
Table 6.5: PDE Option 3: Array Construction Spending by Category, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK (Inc. Scotland) | Total (Scotland, rUK and rWorld) |
|---|---|---|---|
Wind Turbine | £777 m | £1,217 m | £3,593 m |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £1,833 m | £1,833 m | £2,234 m |
Offshore Cable Installation | £47 m | £66 m | £312 m |
Cables Supply | £0 m | £87 m | £175 m |
OSP | £180 m | £215 m | £505 m |
Development and Consenting Services | £214 m | £273 m | £297 m |
Floating Mooring Systems | £78 m | £156 m | £390 m |
Floating Foundations Installation | £313 m | £313 m | £455 m |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £7 m | £7 m | £7 m |
Total | £3,449 m | £4,167 m | £7,968 m |
Total (%) | 43% | 52% | 100% |
- Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the direct economic impact of the Array could be £1.4 billion and 20,680 years of employment in Scotland and £1.7 billion GVA and 24,910 years of employment in the UK (Table 6.6).
Table 6.6: PDE Option 3: Array Construction Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVA | Years of Employment | GVA | Years of Employment |
Wind Turbine | £314 m | 4,710 | £486 m | 7,260 |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £723 m | 10,430 | £723 m | 10,430 |
Offshore Cable Installation | £12 m | 150 | £17 m | 200 |
Cables Supply | £0 m | 0 | £32 m | 430 |
OSP | £74 m | 1,290 | £86 m | 1,450 |
Development and Consenting Services | £116 m | 1,820 | £149 m | 2,320 |
Floating Mooring Systems | £35 m | 530 | £70 m | 1,050 |
Floating Foundations Installation | £111 m | 1,730 | £111 m | 1,730 |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £2 m | 30 | £2 m | 30 |
Total | £1,388 m | 20,680 | £1,676 m | 24,910 |
- Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the Array’s economic impact could be £2.3 billion GVA and 34,750 years of employment in Scotland, and £4.4 billion GVA and 62,640 years of employment in the UK (Table 6.7) (Table 6.8).
Table 6.7: PDE Option 3: Array Construction Total GVA impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct GVA | £1,388 m | £1,676 m |
Indirect GVA | £528 m | £1,349 m |
Induced GVA | £432 m | £1,339 m |
Total GVA | £2,348 m | £4,365 m |
Table 6.8: PDE Option 3: Array Construction Total Employment impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct Years of Employment | 20,680 | 24,910 |
Indirect Years of Employment | 8,420 | 18,590 |
Induced Years of Employment | 5,660 | 19,150 |
Total Years of Employment | 34,750 | 62,640 |
- The spend at the primary construction port(s) is expected to be around £217 million, which would require a significant workforce, with an estimated peak direct employment of 340 jobs (Table 6.9). The largest contract is expected to be associated with marshalling harbour (£162 million).
Table 6.9: PDE Option 3: Array Construction Port Impact by Category
Parameters | Total Investment | Port Spend | Employment | Peak Employment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wind Turbine Assembly | £121 m | £17 m | 80 | 20 |
Marshalling Harbour | £162 m | £162 m | 1,310 | 290 |
Offshore Logistics | £9 m | £9 m | 80 | 20 |
Anchor Installation | £142 m | £28 m | 70 | 10 |
Total | £434 m | £217 m | 1,540 | 340 |