8.2. Ambition Scenario

As part of the SCDS, developers also provide the spending associated with an ambition scenario, which sets out a higher share of contracts being secured in Scotland if certain conditions are met, e.g. the further development of the Scottish supply chain.
Under the ambition scenario, the share of spending in Scotland would be expected to increase from 35% to 41%. The main driver of this increase is the assumption that the offshore export cables and inter-array cables could be manufactured in Scotland, and that a higher share of blade manufacturing could take place in the UK.
On this basis, the total spend in Scotland could increase from £3.7 billion to £4.2 billion, supporting £2.8 billion GVA and 40,900 years of employment. In the UK spending could increase from £4.6 billion to £5.3 billion, supporting £5.5 billion GVA and 77,120 years of employment (Table 8.5).

Under the ambition scenario it was assumed that there would be an incremental increase in the share of operation and maintenance contracts secured in Scotland and the UK.
On this basis, it was estimated that the share of operation and maintenance contracts in Scotland could increase from £68 million to £75 million, supporting £47 million GVA and 540 jobs. In the UK, spending could increase from £207 million to £209 million, supporting £186 million GVA and 1,570 jobs (Table 8.6).