1. Introduction

The Array EIA Report is based on the consideration of the maximum design scenario, which for many topics involves assessing the design that has the largest adverse impacts. Many of the economic impacts assessed in the socio-economics EIA chapter are beneficial. This technical report therefore identifies the PDE Option that could generate the lowest beneficial impacts, so that those are the basis of the socio-economics impact assessment in the Array EIA Report.
It should be noted that the PDE Option identified within this technical report is considered the MDS for the purposes of the socio-economics assessment only. The final detailed design of the Array may incorporate elements of more than one of the PDE Options presented here, depending upon factors such as available technology, supply chain capacity and cost, but will be within the maximum PDE parameters presented in volume 1, chapter 3. Further details on the overarching PDE and MDS approaches for the Array EIA Report are included within volume 1, chapter 3.

2. Methodology

While a significant proportion of the activity associated with the Array is expected to take place offshore, the relevant study areas for the socio-economic assessment are located onshore.
The socio-economic study areas for the assessment of effects on employment and economy will be defined in line with the guidance on identification of ‘local areas’ for offshore developments published by the Scottish Government (Scottish Government, 2022a). This guidance identified six principles for identifying local study areas for offshore development:

Principle 1 (Dual Geographies): The local area for the supply chain and investment impacts should be separate from the local area(s) for wider socio-economic impacts, including tourism and recreation.
Principle 2 (Appropriate Impacts): The appropriate impacts to be considered for assessments should be identified before defining the local areas.
Principle 3 (Epicentres): The local areas should include all the epicentres of the appropriate impacts.
Principle 4 (Accountability): The local areas used in the assessment should comprise of pre-existing economic or political geographies (community councils, local authorities, development agencies) to enhance accountability.
Principle 5 (Understandable): The local areas should be defined in such a way that they are understandable to the communities they describe.
Principle 6 (Connected Geography): The local area(s) for the supply chain and investment impacts should consist of connected (including coastal) pre-existing economic or political geographies.

The main local epicentres associated with potential socio-economic impacts are expected to be the ports that will be used for the Array. However, at the time of writing these ports are not known, and therefore the following socio-economic study areas have been considered:

“the Construction Port”, which is the area around the expected construction port(s) (construction phase only);
“the Operation Port”, which is the area around the expected operation and maintenance port(s) (operation and maintenance phase only);
Scotland; and
the United Kingdom (UK).

There are three broad phases of the Array that are considered as part of the socio-economic impact assessment:

For each phase there are three types of economic impact, as demonstrated in Figure 2.1:

direct impact: this is associated with the direct activities of the Applicant as well as the activities of primary suppliers (e.g. wind turbine suppliers);
indirect impact (supply chain): this is associated with spending in the wider supply chain of primary suppliers (e.g. secondary suppliers); and
induced impact (staff spending): this is associated with staff spending their wages and creating impacts in the wider economy.

Deadweight: this is the activity that would have taken place without Ossian proceeding. It was assumed that there would be no deadweight, i.e. no impact if Ossian didn’t go ahead.
Leakage: the proportion of activity that might occur outside the socio-economic study areas. This is accounted for by considering the share of spend that occurs in each study area (see section 2.1.2).
Displacement: the extent to which activity generated by Ossian might displace existing activity elsewhere in the socio-economic study areas. Whilst it is likely that Ossian would compete for resources with other proposed projects, such effects are more likely to relate to the timing of activity. This is discussed further within volume 2, chapter 18.
Multipliers: this is the wider activity resulting from spending in the supply chain and spending by employees of the Applicant and primary suppliers. The multiplier effects are included in the analysis.

The economic impact has been assessed using three common measures of economic activity, as determined by BiGGAR Economics (hereafter referred to as the “technical expert”) professional judgement and experience:

Gross Value Added (GVA): this is a measure of economic output; the economic value added by an organisation or industry. It is typically estimated by subtracting the non-staff costs from the revenues of an organisation.
Years of Employment: this is a measure of employment which is equivalent to one person being employed for an entire year and is typically used when considering short-term employment impact, such as construction employment. This is full-time equivalent (FTE) unless stated otherwise.
Employment (Jobs): a measure of employment which considers the headcount employment in an organisation or industry. This is FTE unless stated otherwise.