3.5. Decommissioning

The potential expenditure associated with decommissioning of Ossian and the share that could be secured in Scotland and the UK was not part of the SCDS process. It was assumed by the technical expert as part of the offshore wind economic model that there would be an expenditure of £150,000 per MW associated with decommissioning, based on the BVG Associates Guide to Floating Wind Farm (BVG Associates, 2023). This suggests that total spending would be £542 million.
Additionally, it was assumed that 30% of this expenditure would be secured in Scotland and the UK and 70% elsewhere in the world (defined as “rWorld”), though there is potential for the Scottish and UK shares to be substantially higher, depending on development of the Scottish and UK economies over the next few decades (BVG Associates, 2021).

4. Economic Impact of PDE Option 1 (Commitment)

Expenditure by socio-economic study area was estimated for Ossian based on the technical expert’s model of costs and the information provided in the SCDS. Therefore, it was assumed that under PDE Option 1, the total construction phase spend in Scotland could be £4.0 billion (37% of total expenditure) and total spend in the UK could be £5.1 billion (46% of total expenditure). The largest expenditure is associated with the manufacture of floating foundations, as shown in Table 4.1.

Parameters	Scotland	UK (Inc. Scotland)	Total (Scotland, rUK and rWorld)
Wind Turbine	£885 m	£1,331 m	£3,785 m
Floating Foundation Manufacturing	£1,916 m	£1,916 m	£2,335 m
Cables Supply	£0 m	£166 m	£1,302 m
Offshore Cable Installation	£187 m	£262 m	£1,249 m
Floating Foundations Installation	£443 m	£443 m	£644 m
OSP	£180 m	£215 m	£505 m
Development and Consenting Services	£339 m	£433 m	£471 m
Floating Mooring Systems	£86 m	£171 m	£429 m
Onshore Substation	£0 m	£129 m	£280 m
Onshore Cable Installation	£0 m	£34 m	£34 m
Operation and Maintenance Base	£7 m	£7 m	£7 m
Total expenditure	£4,043 m	£5,108 m	£11,042 m
Percentage of total expenditure (%)	37%	46%	100%

Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors, it was estimated that the direct economic impact of Ossian could be £1.6 billion and 23,880 years of employment in Scotland and £2.0 billion GVA and 29,670 years of employment in the UK (Table 4.2).

Parameters	Scotland		UK
	GVA	Years of Employment	GVA	Years of Employment
Wind Turbine	£348 m	5,170	£523 m	7,760
Floating Foundation Manufacturing	£756 m	10,900	£756 m	10,900
Cables Supply	£0 m	0	£61 m	840
Offshore Cable Installation	£48 m	590	£67 m	820
Floating Foundations Installation	£157 m	2,440	£157 m	2,440
OSP	£74 m	1,290	£86 m	1,450
Development and Consenting Services	£185 m	2,890	£236 m	3,690
Floating Mooring Systems	£38 m	580	£77 m	1,160
Onshore Substation	£0 m	0	£41 m	470
Onshore Cable Installation	£0 m	0	£11 m	120
Operation and Maintenance Base	£2 m	30	£2 m	30
Total	£1,609 m	23,880	£2,017 m	29,670

Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the total economic impact could be £2.7 billion GVA and 40,110 years of employment in Scotland, and £5.3 billion GVA and 75,170 years of employment in the UK (Table 4.3) (Table 4.4).

Parameters	Scotland	UK
Direct Years of Employment	23,880	29,670
Indirect Years of Employment	9,710	22,610
Induced Years of Employment	6,520	22,890
Total Years of Employment	40,110	75,170

For the Array it was estimated that the total spend could be £8.5 billion, of which £3.8 billion (44%) could be secured in Scotland and £4.5 billion (53%) could be secured in the UK (Table 4.5).

Parameters	Scotland	UK (Inc. Scotland)	Total (Scotland, rUK and rWorld)
Wind Turbine	£885 m	£1,331 m	£3,785 m
Floating Foundation Manufacturing	£1,916 m	£1,916 m	£2,335 m
Offshore Cable Installation	£47 m	£66 m	£312 m
Cables Supply	£0 m	£106 m	£212 m
OSP	£180 m	£215 m	£505 m
Development and Consenting Services	£214 m	£273 m	£297 m
Floating Mooring Systems	£86 m	£171 m	£429 m
Floating Foundations Installation	£443 m	£443 m	£644 m
Operation and Maintenance Base	£7 m	£7 m	£7 m
Total	£3,777 m	£4,528 m	£8,527 m
Percentage of total expenditure (%)	44%	53%	100%

Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the direct economic impact of the Array could be £1.5 billion and 22,370 years of employment in Scotland and £1.8 billion GVA and 26,790 years of employment in the UK (Table 4.6).

Parameters	Scotland		UK
	GVA	Years of Employment	GVA	Years of Employment
Wind Turbine	£348 m	5,170	£523 m	7,760
Floating Foundation Manufacturing	£756 m	10,900	£756 m	10,900
Offshore Cable Installation	£12 m	150	£17 m	200
Cables Supply	£0 m	0	£39 m	520
OSP	£74 m	1,290	£86 m	1,450
Development and Consenting Services	£116 m	1,820	£149 m	2,320
Floating Mooring Systems	£38 m	580	£77 m	1,160
Floating Foundations Installation	£157 m	2,440	£157 m	2,440
Operation and Maintenance Base	£2 m	30	£2 m	30
Total	£1,505 m	22,370	£1,806 m	26,790

Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the Array’s economic impact could be £2.5 billion GVA and 37,690 years of employment in Scotland, and £4.7 billion GVA and 67,500 years of employment in the UK (Table 4.7; Table 4.8).

Parameters	Scotland	UK
Direct Years of Employment	22,370	26,790
Indirect Years of Employment	9,180	20,120
Induced Years of Employment	6,140	20,590
Total Years of Employment	37,690	67,500

The spend at the primary construction port(s) is expected to be around £305 million, of which the largest contract is expected to be associated with marshalling harbour (£229 million). This would require a significant workforce, with an estimated peak direct employment of 480 jobs (Table 4.9).

Parameters	Total Investment	Port Spend	Employment	Peak Employment
Wind Turbine Assembly	£156 m	£22 m	110	20
Marshalling Harbour	£229 m	£229 m	1,860	410
Offshore Logistics	£13 m	£13 m	120	30
Anchor Installation	£201 m	£40 m	90	20
Total	£599 m	£305 m	2,180	480