9. Summary

  1. This socio-economics technical report has outlined in detail the approach to the economic impact assessment that has been used to quantify the total expenditure and economic impact of the Array and Ossian across the construction, operation and maintenance and decommissioning phases, and identified the PDE Option with the least beneficial effects.
  2. On this basis, this technical report has identified PDE Option 4 as the least beneficial option and it has therefore been identified as the MDS for the purposes of the socio-economics EIA chapter (volume 2, chapter 18). This is expected to consist of up to 130 wind turbines with a generating capacity of up to 3.6 GW.
  3. It should be noted that the PDE Option identified within this technical report is considered the MDS for the purposes of the socio-economic assessment only and the final detailed design of the Array will depend upon factors such as available technology, supply chain capacity and cost.

9.1. Ossian Impact Summary (PDE Option 4)

  1. For Ossian as a whole (i.e. the Array, the Proposed offshore export cable(s) and the Proposed onshore transmission infrastructure), it was estimated, based on the SCDS commitment scenario and the technical expert’s modelling, that during the construction phase the total investment associated with PDE Option 4 could be £10.2 billion, supporting an impact of:
  • £2.4 billion GVA and 35,920 years of employment in Scotland;
  • £4.8 billion GVA and 67,980 years of employment in the UK; and
  • 240 peak jobs at the main construction port(s).
  1. In addition, it was estimated, based on the SCDS commitment scenario and the technical expert’s modelling, that during each year of operation and maintenance the total expenditure associated with PDE Option 4 could be £227 million, supporting a total impact of:
  • £44 million GVA and 500 jobs in Scotland;
  • £183 million GVA and 1,510 jobs in the UK; and
  • 70 jobs at the main operation and maintenance port(s).
  1. It was estimated, based on the technical expert’s modelling, that during the decommissioning phase, the total expenditure associated with PDE Option 4 could be £542 million, supporting a total impact of:
  • £90 million GVA and 1,040 years of employment in Scotland; and
  • £130 million GVA and 1,580 years of employment in the UK.

9.2. Array Impact Summary (PDE Option 4)

  1. For the Array, it was estimated, based on the SCDS commitment scenario and the technical expert’s modelling, that during the construction phase the total investment associated with PDE Option 4 could be £7.7 billion, supporting an impact of:
  • £2.3 billion GVA and 33,500 years of employment in Scotland;
  • £4.2 billion GVA and 60,310 years of employment in the UK; and
  • 240 peak jobs at the main construction port(s).
  1. In addition, it was estimated, based on the SCDS commitment scenario and the technical expert’s modelling, that during each year of operation and maintenance the total expenditure associated with PDE Option 4 could be £227 million, supporting an Array impact of:
  • £43 million GVA and 490 jobs in Scotland;
  • £179 million GVA and 1,480 jobs in the UK; and
  • 70 jobs at the main operation and maintenance port(s).
  1. It was estimated, based on the technical expert’s modelling, that during the decommissioning phase, the total expenditure associated with PDE Option 4 could be £174 million, supporting an Array impact of:
  • £30 million GVA and 330 years of employment in Scotland; and
  • £40 million GVA and 510 years of employment in the UK.