7. Economic Impact of PDE Option 4 (Commitment)
7.1. Construction
7.1.1. Ossian Impact
- Based on the estimated expenditure for the Ossian as a whole, the technical expert’s model of costs and the information provided in the SCDS it was assumed that under PDE Option 4 the total construction phase spend in Scotland could £3.6 billion (35% of total expenditure) and total spend in the UK could be £4.6 billion (45%), which is shown in Table 7.1. The largest expenditure is associated with the manufacture of floating foundations.
Table 7.1: PDE Option 4: Ossian Construction Spending by Category, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK (Inc. Scotland) | Total (Scotland, rUK and rWorld) |
|---|---|---|---|
Wind Turbine | £698 m | £1,130 m | £3,438 m |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £1,865 m | £1,865 m | £2,273 m |
Cables Supply | £187 m | £262 m | £1,249 m |
Offshore Cable Installation | £0 m | £133 m | £1,235 m |
Floating Foundations Installation | £180 m | £215 m | £505 m |
OSP | £339 m | £433 m | £471 m |
Development and Consenting Services | £72 m | £144 m | £360 m |
Floating Mooring Systems | £221 m | £221 m | £321 m |
Onshore Substation | £0 m | £129 m | £280 m |
Onshore Cable Installation | £0 m | £34 m | £34 m |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £7 m | £7 m | £7 m |
Total | £3,570 m | £4,573 m | £10,174 m |
Total (%) | 35% | 45% | 100% |
- Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the direct economic of the Array could be £1.4 billion and 21,470 years of employment in Scotland and £1.8 billion GVA and 26,930 years of employment in the UK (Table 7.2).
Table 7.2: PDE Option 4: Ossian Construction Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVA | Years of Employment | GVA | Years of Employment |
Wind Turbine | £288 m | 4,360 | £457 m | 6,870 |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £736 m | 10,610 | £736 m | 10,610 |
Cables Supply | £48 m | 590 | £67 m | 820 |
Offshore Cable Installation | £0 m | 0 | £49 m | 680 |
Floating Foundations Installation | £74 m | 1,290 | £86 m | 1,450 |
OSP | £185 m | 2,890 | £236 m | 3,690 |
Development and Consenting Services | £32 m | 490 | £65 m | 970 |
Floating Mooring Systems | £78 m | 1,220 | £78 m | 1,220 |
Onshore Substation | £0 m | 0 | £41 m | 470 |
Onshore Cable Installation | £0 m | 0 | £11 m | 120 |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £2 m | 30 | £2 m | 30 |
Total | £1,444 m | 21,470 | £1,828 m | 26,930 |
- Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the total economic impact could be £2.4 billion GVA and 35,920 years of employment in Scotland, and £4.8 billion GVA and 67,980 years of employment in the UK (Table 7.3; Table 7.4).
Table 7.3: PDE Option 4: Ossian Construction GVA impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct GVA | £1,444 m | £1,828 m |
Indirect GVA | £541 m | £1,483 m |
Induced GVA | £448 m | £1,461 m |
Total GVA | £2,433 m | £4,772 m |
Table 7.4: PDE Option 4: Ossian Construction Employment impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct Years of Employment | 21,470 | 26,930 |
Indirect Years of Employment | 8,610 | 20,290 |
Induced Years of Employment | 5,840 | 20,760 |
Total Years of Employment | 35,920 | 67,980 |
7.1.2. Array Impact
- For the Array it was estimated that the total spend could be £7.7 billion, of which £3.3 billion (43%) could be secured in Scotland and £4.0 billion (52%) could be secured in the UK (Table 7.5).
Table 7.5: PDE Option 4: Array Construction Spending by Category, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK (Inc. Scotland) | Total (Scotland, rUK and rWorld) |
|---|---|---|---|
Wind Turbine | £698 m | £1,130 m | £3,438 m |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £1,865 m | £1,865 m | £2,273 m |
Offshore Cable Installation | £47 m | £66 m | £312 m |
Cables Supply | £0 m | £73 m | £145 m |
OSP | £180 m | £215 m | £505 m |
Development and Consenting Services | £214 m | £273 m | £297 m |
Floating Mooring Systems | £72 m | £144 m | £360 m |
Floating Foundations Installation | £221 m | £221 m | £321 m |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £7 m | £7 m | £7 m |
Total | £3,304 m | £3,994 m | £7,659 m |
Total (%) | 43% | 52% | 100% |
- Applying turnover per employee and turnover/GVA ratios for the relevant sectors it was estimated that the direct economic impact of the Array could be £1.3 billion and 19,960 years of employment in Scotland and £1.6 billion GVA and 24,040 years of employment in the UK (Table 7.6).
Table 7.6: PDE Option 4: Array Construction Direct Economic Impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GVA | Years of Employment | GVA | Years of Employment |
Wind Turbine | £288 m | 4,360 | £457 m | 6,870 |
Floating Foundation Manufacturing | £736 m | 10,610 | £736 m | 10,610 |
Offshore Cable Installation | £12 m | 150 | £17 m | 200 |
Cables Supply | £0 m | 0 | £27 m | 360 |
OSP | £74 m | 1,290 | £86 m | 1,450 |
Development and Consenting Services | £116 m | 1,820 | £149 m | 2,320 |
Floating Mooring Systems | £32 m | 490 | £65 m | 970 |
Floating Foundations Installation | £78 m | 1,220 | £78 m | 1,220 |
Operation and Maintenance Base | £2 m | 30 | £2 m | 30 |
Total | £1,340 m | 19,960 | £1,617 m | 24,040 |
- Applying GVA and employment multipliers it was therefore estimated that the Array’s economic impact could be £2.3 billion GVA and 33,500 years of employment in Scotland, and £4.2 billion GVA and 60,310 years of employment in the UK (Table 7.7; Table 7.8).
Table 7.7: PDE Option 4: Array Construction Total GVA impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct GVA | £1,340 m | £1,617 m |
Indirect GVA | £506 m | £1,295 m |
Induced GVA | £418 m | £1,293 m |
Total GVA | £2,264 m | £4,205 m |
Table 7.8: PDE Option 4: Array Construction Total Employment impact, Scotland and the UK
Parameters | Scotland | UK |
|---|---|---|
Direct Years of Employment | 19,960 | 24,040 |
Indirect Years of Employment | 8,080 | 17,800 |
Induced Years of Employment | 5,460 | 18,470 |
Total Years of Employment | 33,500 | 60,310 |
- The spend at the primary construction port(s) is expected to be around £154 million, which would require a significant workforce, with an estimated peak direct employment of 240 jobs (Table 7.9). The largest contract is expected to be associated with marshalling harbour (£114 million).
Table 7.9: PDE Option 4: Array Construction Port Impact by Category
Parameters | Total Investment | Port Spend | Employment | Peak Employment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wind Turbine Assembly | £96 m | £14 m | 70 | 10 |
Marshalling Harbour | £114 m | £114 m | 930 | 210 |
Offshore Logistics | £6 m | £6 m | 60 | 10 |
Anchor Installation | £100 m | £20 m | 50 | 10 |
Total | £317 m | £154 m | 1,110 | 240 |